Economy.com Daily Update: June 7, 2024

Today's Economy

Payroll employment rose by 272,000 in May, coming in stronger than our above-consensus projection.

The institution will likely be more divisive in the next five years.

In the first three months of the year, GDP grew 0.3% q/q.

The trade surplus of $82.6 billion in May was the largest since January.

Commentary

Despite pervasive gloom, the labor market keeps the U.S. economic expansion rolling along.

May’s CPI should show some easing.

The Bank of Canada’s pivot ahead of other G-7 central banks will help jump-start growth later this year.

Brazil and Chile see higher trade surpluses.

Today's Economic Indicators

India
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 6.50%
In its third meeting of the year, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate steady at 6.5%.

Thailand
Consumer Price Index
May. 2024: 1.5% y/y
Thailand's consumer price index rose 1.5% year on year in May after rising 0.2% a month prior.

Japan
Consumption Activity Index
Apr. 2024: 0.5% m/m
The Bank of Japan’s real consumption activity index adjusted for travel rose 0.5% m/m in April, beating our forecast for a flat reading.

Germany
Industrial Production
Apr. 2024: -0.1% m/m
Industrial production was effectively flat in April after experiencing a mild drop in March.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
May. 2024: US$6.1 bil
In May, Taiwan’s trade surplus fell to $6.1 billion from $6.5 billion in April, close to our forecast of $6.2 billion and much less than the consensus forecast of $6.8 billion.

Euro Zone
GDP
2024Q1: 0.3% q/q
The euro zone’s first-quarter GDP growth rate was confirmed at 0.3% quarter over quarter, reversing a previous 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 16%
At its June meeting, the Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark interest rate at 16%.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
May. 2024: 4.69% y/y
Mexico’s inflation remained above the 4% target in May, showing resistance to fall further as the comparison base affected annual growth.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
May. 2024: 4.13% y/y
In May, Chile's annual inflation experienced an upward trend due to an unfavorable base effect, although the price hikes aligned with the month's historical trends.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2024Q1: 78.5%
Industrial capacity utilization came in at 78.5% in the first quarter of 2024, relatively unchanged from the prior quarter.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
May. 2024: 6.2%
Employment growth cannot keep pace with Canada's explosive demographics.

United States
Employment Situation
May. 2024: 272,000 m/m
The labor market returned to form in May.

Chile
Foreign Trade
May. 2024: US$1,598 mil
Chile recorded another large trade surplus in May amid a surge in copper prices and still-weak imports.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Apr. 2024: 0.1% m/m
Wholesale inventories increased 0.1% in April following a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in March.

United States
Financial Accounts - Households
2024Q1: $160.84 tril
Household wealth surged to another record high in the first quarter as surging equity prices were supplemented by a modest gain in real estate equity.

United States
Financial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate
2024Q1: $32.25 tril
Nonfinancial corporation’s wealth expanded in the first quarter.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Apr. 2024: $6.4 bil
The stock of consumer credit outstanding expanded by $6.4 billion in April, falling well short of consensus expectations for an $11 billion addition.