Economy.com Daily Update: March 11, 2019

Today's Economy

First-quarter GDP likely won't impress but we have seen this before.

Retail sales rose 0.2% in January, but December was revised to show an even larger decline.

Services now produce most of the country's economic growth.

We expect a series of votes this week that will shape how Brexit plays out.

Commentary

A trifecta of factors will cause GDP growth to be soft this quarter.

Elevated geopolitical risks threaten to accelerate the slowdown in global demand.

The uncertainty is lasting for too long and is taking a toll on growth.

The Fed is comfortable sitting on the sidelines.

Today's Economic Indicators

Spain
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019: 0.3%
In line with our forecast, Spanish retail bounced back and expanded by 0.3% m/m in January.

OECD
Composite Leading Indicators
Jan. 2019: 99.1
The composite leading indicator for the OECD countries continued to fall, with the index dipping to 99.1 in January from 99.2 in December.

Germany
Industrial Production
Jan. 2019: -0.8%
German industrial production retreated at the start of the year after recovering somewhat in December.

United States
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019: 0.2%
Retail sales recovered a small portion of December’s decline in January, but revisions were unkind on net.

United States
Regional and State Employment
Jan. 2019:
The employment figures for state and regional economies for January confirm much of what is already known, namely that the country’s labor market began the year on a strong footing, but that there was plenty of noise because of the government shutdown.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
March 08: 12.3
Global business sentiment improved a bit last week, but businesses remain notably anxious.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Dec. 2018: 0.6%
Stockpiles grew by 0.6%, in line with consensus expectations and the Moody’s Analytics forecast.