Economy.com Daily Update: March 26, 2021

Today's Economy

This boat of cash lends upside to spending while another boat blocks the Suez Canal.

The immediate impact of the closing may be minimal, for now.

GDP is now tracking 4.8% at an annualized rate.

The country’s government adds aid to pandemic-battered firms.

Commentary

Oil prices in particular will boost inflation rates for the current month.

The economy will expand 5.3% this year after contracting 9.9% in 2020.

The concern is premature, but India and the Philippines are exceptions.

Another quarterly improvement expected in Japan's Tankan survey.

Today's Economic Indicators

Singapore
Industrial Production
Feb. 2021: 16.4% y/y
Singapore's industrial production surged by 16.4% y/y in February, following expansions across sectors such as electronics and biomedical manufacturing due to robust demand for semiconductors and related equipment, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices.

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Feb. 2021: 2.17% m/m
U.K. retail sales remained weak in February.

Spain
GDP
2020Q4: 0.0% q/q
Spain’s final GDP report confirmed that growth stalled in quarterly terms in the final stanza of 2020, though the quarterly growth rate was revised down from 0.4% in the flash estimate.

Sweden
Retail Sales
Feb. 2021: 0.7%
Seasonally adjusted, retail sales excluding fuel sales rose by 0.7% m/m in February following a 4.3% increase in January.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Feb. 2021: US$2,681 mil
Mexico’s trade balance turned positive in February as some imports were affected by the interruptions caused by inclement weather in the U.S.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Feb. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Wholesale trade inventories gained 0.5% in February.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Feb. 2021: -$86.7 bil
U.S. net exports will likely be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth.

United States
Personal Income
Feb. 2021: -7.1% m/m
In line with our forecast, nominal personal income contracted 7.1% from January to February.

United States
PCE Deflator
Feb. 2021: 0.2% m/m
U.S. inflationary pressures will develop in the first half of the year, but this is attributable to transitory factors, and the implications for monetary policy are minimal.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Feb. 2021: -1.2% m/m
Fading stimulus and severe winter weather resulted in a partial reversal in February of the upwardly revised surge in real consumer spending that took place in January.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
March 24: 86.1
Economic activity in the U.S. continues to pick up throughout March.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Mar. 2021: 84.9
U.S. consumer sentiment improved in March despite some weakening economic drivers as consumers became more confident regarding vaccinations and the coming end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

United States
Regional and State Employment
Feb. 2021:
The February job numbers for state and regional economies indicate that the labor market is making progress but still has a ways to go.

Netherlands
GDP
2020Q4: -0.1% y/y
Netherlands GDP came in slow in the last quarter of 2020, as a resurgence of the coronavirus stymied hopes of a swift and sustained recovery.

Uruguay
GDP
2020Q4: -2.9%
Uruguay’s rebound lost steam at the end of 2020.

United States
Financial Obligations Ratio
2020Q4: 14.71%
Household financial burdens increased again in the fourth quarter as incomes continued to fall.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Mar. 2021: 1.75%
Colombia’s central bank left the reference interest rate unchanged at 1.75% after March’s regular meeting.