Economy.com Daily Update: March 31, 2020

Today's Economy

Hiring normally moves the needle on job growth, and it's weakening.

The COVID-19 outbreak is set to derail the British economy.

A significant and sudden recession is now the most likely scenario.

Even the technology of the day won’t be enough to save the most vulnerable segments of the U.S. workforce.

Commentary

An accurate forecast of the spread and duration of the disease is a critical component for estimating the economic impact of the virus.

A quantitative analysis of how the pandemic will play out in the U.S.

Consumer fundamentals have changed dramatically, mostly to the bad.

The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll is only beginning to appear in the hard data.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Household Consumption Survey
Feb. 2020: -0.1%
French household consumption expenditure on goods fell by 0.1% m/m in February, coming in below expectations and adding to two previous months of declines.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2020: US$5.4 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus expanded by US$5.4 billion in February, up from a US$383 million surplus in January.

Spain
GDP
2019Q4: 0.4%
Spanish GDP finished off 2019 on a good note, up 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.8% on a yearly basis.

Germany
Unemployment
Mar. 2020: 5.0%
The German unemployment rate was unchanged at 5% in March.

United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2019Q4: 0.0%
Final numbers confirmed that U.K.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2020: 0.7%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation plunged to a below-consensus 0.7% y/y in March from 1.2% in February.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Feb. 2020: 3.9%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index rose 3.9% in February, building on the previous month’s gain and beating our forecast.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Feb. 2020: 11.6%
Brazil's unemployment in February continued to be affected by the typical seasonality at the beginning of the year and the initial effects of the coronavirus.

Chile
Employment
Feb. 2020: 7.8%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7.8% in the December-February rolling quarter, up from 7% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Feb. 2020: 3.74%
Despite less favorable global conditions, Chile's manufacturing production index reported an annual advance of 3.7% in February, after similar growth in January and growth of only 0.7% a year before.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Feb. 2020: -0.5%
Lower prices for refined petroleum products drove prices for products manufactured in Canada down 0.5% in February, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index.

Canada
Industry Output
Jan. 2020: 0.1%
Canadian GDP ticked higher by 0.1% in January following December’s 0.3% gain.

Australia
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Feb. 2020: 7.5%
Australia's used-vehicle prices rose 7.5% on a year-over-year basis in February.

United States
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
Jan. 2020: 3.1%
House price appreciation held strong in January, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index.

United States
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Mar. 2020: 120.0
U.S. consumer confidence tumbled in March as COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the economy, causing massive shutdowns and layoffs.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
March 27: 158.2
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from 151.2 to 158.2 in the week ended March 27.

United States
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Mar. 2020: -67.0
Texas service sector output dropped dramatically in March, as a result of lockdowns of businesses to stem the COVID crisis. All current component indexes fell from being moderately positive in February to a range of -20 to -70.

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2020:

United States
Agricultural Prices
Feb. 2020: 1.8%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index increased 1.8% from January to February before the rapid spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Chile
Monetary Policy
Mar. 2020:

Japan
Tankan Survey
2020Q1: