Economy.com Daily Update: March 4, 2020

Today's Economy

It’s a two-person presidential race; a brokered convention is less likely; and the general election looks better for Democrats.

Though more Fed easing is coming, fiscal policy also needs to help.

The Fed's rate cut lets emerging market central banks lower rates without risking capital flight.

Sales started the year off well but will take a beating from the coronavirus in the months ahead.

Commentary

The economic data remained strong in the face of a potential pandemic.

Both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs hit record lows in February.

Financial market conditions may factor most in any signals from the Fed.

March kicks off with a bundle of reports on inflation.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Retail Sales
Jan. 2020: 0.9%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicle sales rebounded less than expected in January, growing by only 0.9% m/m and 1.3% y/y.

Euro Zone
Retail Sales
Jan. 2020: 0.6%
Euro zone retail sales rose by 0.6% m/m in January, partially reversing a 1.1% decline in December.

Italy
GDP
2019Q4: -0.3%
Final numbers confirmed that Italy's GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Brazil
GDP
2019Q4: 1.7%
Brazil’s economy continued to recover at the end of the year, posting a third year in positive territory.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
February 28: 15.1%
Mortgage applications rose 15.1% over the week of February 28.

United States
ADP National Employment Report
Feb. 2020: 183,000
The labor market remains firm in 2020.

Canada
Monetary Policy
Mar. 2020: 1.25%
The Bank of Canada is deploying additional stimulus as the COVID-19 outbreak sharply reduces expected growth in the first half of 2020.

United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Feb. 2020: 57.3
The nonmanufacturing segment of the economy continues to perform well, although comments from respondents included apprehension about the new strain of COVID-19.

United States
Oil Inventories
February 28: 444.1 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories rose minimally last week, a positive for oil prices.

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2020: 8.3%
Uruguayan inflation slowed slightly more than expected in February, falling to 8.3% from 8.7% in the prior month.

United States
Beige Book
Mar. 2020:
The Federal Reserve’s March Beige Book reports that economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace from the beginning of January through mid-February.

Australia
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2020: