Economy.com Daily Update: May 10, 2019

Today's Economy

The economy’s underlying momentum is weaker than the headline suggests.

Canadian oil labor productivity has improved dramatically.

Stocks have broadly retreated, and the big unknown is how China will respond.

The VIX's jump since Friday could have equaled a 160-bps surge for high-yield bonds.

Commentary

German GDP figures should defy the gloom in the survey data.

China’s April activity data will likely show evidence of stabilization and improvement in pockets.

Colombia's economy advances at a steady pace.

Synchronized deceleration will persist amid elevated trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Apr. 2019: 0.5%
The recent increase in energy prices is having a temporary impact on global consumer prices, but the monetary implications for central banks in developed economies are not significant.

France
Industrial Production
Mar. 2019: -0.9%
France’s industrial production fell by 0.9% m/m in March, fully reversing a 0.1% rise in February.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
Mar. 2019: -0.1%
U.K.

Italy
Industrial Production
Mar. 2019: -0.9%
Italy’s industrial production fell 0.9% m/m in March, retreating from February’s 0.8% gain.

United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2019Q1: 0.5%
Preliminary numbers showed that U.K.

Italy
Retail Sales
Mar. 2019: -0.3%
Italian retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in March, following a 0.1% increase in February.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2019: 4.94%
Brazil’s inflation rebounded in April, staying above the central target for a second consecutive month.

Canada
Housing Starts
Apr. 2019: 235 ths
Residential construction in Canada took a step in a positive direction in April.

India
Industrial Production
Mar. 2019: -0.1%

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Apr. 2019: 5.7%
The labor market silenced its doubters in April, delivering a huge employment gain.

Canada
Building Permits
Mar. 2019: 2.1%
The Canadian housing market received much-needed good news in March.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2019: 0.3%
The Federal Reserve isn’t inclined to either raise or cut rates soon, and it will continue to view the weakness in inflation as transitory.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Mar. 2019: -0.1%
Mexico’s industry continued to contract in March, despite the positive effects from the timing of Easter.

Peru
Monetary Policy
May. 2019: 2.75%
The May meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee produced no surprises: Policymakers kept the key reference rate unchanged at 2.75%.

United States
Treasury Budget
Apr. 2019: $160.3 bil
The federal government has incurred a cumulative budget deficit of $530.9 billion in the first seven months of fiscal 2019, compared with $385.4 billion over the same period last fiscal year.