Economy.com Daily Update: May 15, 2024

Today's Economy

Despite President Nayib Bukele’s cryptocurrency gamble, the nation’s outlook is weak.

The 0.3% increase in the headline and core CPI in April was expected and welcome.

Our model’s first run puts second-quarter growth at 1.9% annualized.

After a quarterly GDP contraction, we expect to see the Netherlands economy on firmer ground in the second quarter.

Commentary

Bigger deficits will follow the bonus budget surplus in 2023-24.

There could be wobbles ahead.

Spending growth looks set to slow but not stop.

There is hope that consumers' faith in the economy will revive; gasoline prices appear to be at or near their peak, and both house prices and the labor market remain strong.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2024: US$3.6 bil
Indonesia’s trade surplus fell to $3.6 billion in April from $4.5 billion in March.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2024: 3.9% y/y
Sweden’s CPI inflation rate lowered to 3.9% year over year in April from 4.1% in March.

France
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2024: 2.2% y/y
France’s CPI inflation rate eased slightly to 2.2% year over year in April from 2.3% in March.

Euro Zone
Industrial Production
Mar. 2024: 0.6% m/m
Euro zone industrial production gained 0.6% month over month in March, adding to an upwardly revised 1% increase in February.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
May 10: 0.5%
Mortgage activity in the U.S. experienced a slight uptick in the second week of May.

Canada
Housing Starts
Apr. 2024: 240 ths
Canadian housing starts dipped slightly in April compared with March.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Mar. 2024: -2.1% m/m
Manufacturing sales took a dip in March, falling 2.1% to $69.9 billion.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Mar. 2024: 12.5% y/y
New-vehicle sales ticked up in March for the second consecutive month, climbing a robust 26%.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2024: 0.3% m/m
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% from March to April, in line with the expectations of Moody's Analytics.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
May. 2024: -15.6
After an extended stretch of monthly volatility, May's Empire State Manufacturing Survey brought unusual stability.

United States
Retail Sales
Apr. 2024: 0.0%, m/m
Retail sales unexpectedly failed to grow in April, although the weakness follows two months of strong, if downwardly revised, gains.

India
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2024: -US$19.1 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit for April widened to $19.1 billion from $15.6 billion in March.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Mar. 2024: -0.1% m/m
Business inventories fell 0.1% in March after rising 0.4% in February.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2023Q4: 2.1% q/q SAAR
Global GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter, though significant disparities remain between regions.

United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
May. 2024: 45
Homebuilder confidence reversed trend and declined 6 points to 45 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index.

United States
Oil Inventories
May 10: 457.0 mil barrels
Oil inventories had a larger draw than anticipated, which could put some upward pressure on prices.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Apr. 2024: 37.7 weeks, NSA
In April, new-vehicle affordability experienced a setback, halting a consistent nine-month trend of improved affordability.

Peru
Unemployment
Apr. 2024: 7.7%
The April jobs report was remarkably good.

Colombia
GDP
2024Q1: 0.7% y/y
Colombia's economy struggled in the first quarter of 2024 amid stubbornly high inflation and tight monetary conditions.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Mar. 2024: $100.5 bil
Net long-term international capital flows increased by $100.5 billion in March, up from $71.5 billion in February.

Japan
GDP
2024Q1:

Australia
Employment Situation
Apr. 2024: