Economy.com Daily Update: May 3, 2021

Today's Economy

ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending fail to live up to expectations.

The overwhelming amount of liquidity in the money markets could force the Fed to alter IOER and RRP.

We talk the Biden administration's American Families Plan and who deserves credit for the booming U.S. economy.

There have been cutbacks in office-using industries, but these were far smaller in scale than in consumer-facing services.

Commentary

Economic indicators last week left us feeling optimistic.

Metro-area job growth is occurring evenly across the country.

U.S. population flows could see a major shake-up.

Once the economy has returned to full employment, addressing our long-term fiscal problems will become critical.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 7.7%
German retail sales excluding motor vehicles jumped by 7.7% m/m in March, after an upwardly revised 2.7% increase in February.

Belgium
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 12.8%
Belgian retail sales advanced a robust 12.8% month to month in March.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Mar. 2021: 6.4% y/y
Chile’s economic activity reported a strong annual rebound in March as the low comparison base benefited the annual growth rate.

United States
Bankruptcy Filings
2021Q1: -39.6% y/y
Personal bankruptcy filings remained low in the first quarter as more stimulus payments, increased unemployment insurance, and lender forbearance continued to support household finances.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Mar. 2021: 0.2% m/m
U.S. construction spending increased just 0.2% in March, well below the consensus expectation of a 2% increase.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
April 30: 12.3
Global business sentiment is steadily, albeit slowly, improving.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Apr. 2021: 60.7
The ISM manufacturing survey unexpectedly fell in April, but it remains elevated and the outlook is favorable for factory conditions this quarter.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 2.4% y/y
Consumer prices in the Lima metropolitan area declined in April for the second time in four months, pulling the annual inflation rate down to 2.4%.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2021: US$10.349 bil
Brazil’s trade account posted a strong surplus in April as exports rebounded and imports moderated.

United States
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
2021Q2: -27.1%
In the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, banks loosened standards on all types of loans excluding commercial real estate loans and subprime mortgages.

South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021: