| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: A Flurry of Data to End the Week No surprise on inflation, while income picks up and spending slows. Europe Daily Briefing: Money, Money, Money Euro zone credit growth is on the rise, but the positive effect will be dulled by high uncertainty. Canada Weekly: Tariff Prep New survey data shed light on how Canadian businesses are adapting to the U.S. tariffs. U.S. High-Frequency GDP Update: Whipsawing Given April’s trade data, we now estimate a 2% increase in real GDP in the second quarter. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 30, 2025 We look for job growth to moderate in May, coming in at 120,000 after 177,000 jobs were added in April. Europe Weekly Highlights and Preview, 30 May 2025 We expect the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points at the June 5 meeting. Euro Zone Chartbook: May Sentiment Is Mixed by Country and Subsector May ESI differs by sector and country, but the trend remains broadly negative. China Chartbook: New Friends, Old Problems China, ASEAN and the Gulf states are looking for ways to work together. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
May. 2025: 22.6%
World recession risks climbed to 22.6% in March, up from a revised 19.1% in February. Thailand
Industrial Production
Apr. 2025: 2.2% y/y
Thai industrial production rose 2.2% y/y in April, moving against our expectation of a 1.9% drop. Finland
GDP
2025Q1: 0.0% q/q
Final estimates show Finland’s real GDP stalled quarter over quarter in the first stanza, bucking preliminary estimates of 0.1% growth and down from a 0.2% lift in the fourth quarter of 2024. Sweden
GDP
2025Q1: -0.2% q/q
Sweden’s first-quarter GDP was revised lower. Germany
Retail Sales
Apr. 2025: -1.1% m/m
Retail turnover contracted 1.1% m/m in April, amounting to 2.3% y/y growth. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2025: -US$3.3 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade balance flipped to a $3.3 billion deficit in April from a $1 billion surplus in March. Italy
GDP
2025Q1: 0.3% q/q
Italy's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the first quarter, confirming ISTAT’s preliminary estimate. Mexico
Employment Situation
Apr. 2025: 2.5% Unemployment
Mexico's unemployment rate went up in April, as the labor market faced the adverse effect of Easter, when temporary jobs are cancelled due to the holiday celebration. India
GDP
2025Q1: 7.4% y/y
India’s real GDP for the March quarter grew 7.4% year over year, up significantly from the previous quarter’s upwardly revised reading of 6.4%. Brazil
GDP
2025Q1: 2.9% y/y
Brazil’s economy advanced further in quarterly terms in the first quarter, although it moderated in annual terms. Canada
Balance of International Payments
2025Q1: -C$2.1 bil
Canada’s current account deficit narrowed in the first quarter. Canada
GDP
2025Q1: 2.2% SAAR
GDP grew at a solid pace in the first quarter, as expected, buoyed by a temporary surge in exports and inventories. Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Mar. 2025: 0.1% m/m
Canada's real GDP increased 0.1% in March, slightly offsetting February’s 0.2% contraction. United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Apr. 2025: 0.0% m/m
According to the advance estimate, wholesale inventories were unchanged in April following a 0.3% increase in the prior month. United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Apr. 2025: -$87.6 bil
After several months running above trend, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in April, falling to $87.6 billion from $162.3 billion in March, smaller than the $97 billion deficit in April of the previous year. United States
Personal Income
Apr. 2025: 0.8% m/m
Nominal personal income surged 0.8% in April. United States
PCE Deflator
Apr. 2025: 0.1% m/m
April’s personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.1% from the month before, in line with expectations. United States
Real Personal Spending
Apr. 2025: 0.1% m/m
Real consumer spending growth slowed in April. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Apr. 2025: 0.03% y/y
Chile’s industrial production moderated in April after a significant rebound in the previous month. Belgium
GDP
2025Q1: 0.4% q/q
Final estimates showed that Belgium’s real GDP advanced by 0.4% q/q in the first quarter following 0.2% q/q growth in the fourth stanza. Portugal
GDP
2025Q1: - 0.5% q/q
After growing by 1.4% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, Portugal's GDP contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025. United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Apr. 2025: 3.6%
House prices declined for the second consecutive month in April, according to the Moody’s Analytics House Price Index. United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May. 2025: 52.2
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index held steady at 52.2 in May after four straight declines, according to the final report for the month. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Apr. 2025: 3.1% y/y
Chilean consumers waffled in April, with retail sales falling slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis from March, leaving total spending about flat since January. United States
Agricultural Prices
Apr. 2025:
China
Manufacturing PMI
May. 2025:
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