| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Where Do We Begin? What a day, with tariffs, U.S. consumer spending, yield curve, stagflation concerns in euro zone. Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment We are sticking with our below-consensus forecast, but risks are weighted to the upside. Mother Nature Helps Lift U.S. Consumer Spending Growth less impressive after adjusting for the boost from weather. Europe Daily Briefing: ECB Between a Rock and a Hard Place It's hard to say how the situation in Italy will play out, while survey data for the second quarter are coming in weak. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
A Plea for Prudence in Turkey The country needs to strengthen its economic policy framework. Mexico’s Election: The Race for the Presidency The country will vote for either continuation or change in politics and economics. No Paradox in U.S. Manufacturing's Productivity Funk There are good reasons for the slowdown. U.S. Chartbook: Economy Is on Track, Never Mind the Noise The Fed will tolerate a modest and temporary overshoot of its 2% inflation target. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Spain
GDP
2018Q1: 0.7%
The preliminary first quarter GDP report shows Spain is still in a sweet spot, with GDP adding 0.7% from the previous quarter. Thailand
Private Consumption
Apr. 2018: 5.5%
Private consumption grew 5.5% y/y in April, after a 2.2% rise in March. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2018: US$0.2 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus narrowed to US$234 million in April, after rising to US$3 billion in March. Italy
Unemployment
Apr. 2018: 11.2%
The Italian labor market is slowly improving. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
May. 2018: 1.9%
Euro zone annual harmonized inflation surged to 1.9% in May, from 1.2% in April, overshooting the consensus of 1.6%. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Apr. 2018: 8.5%
The euro zone’s jobless rate fell to 8.5% in April, from an upwardly revised 8.6% in March, undershooting both the consensus and our expectations that it would drop to 8.4%. United States
Challenger Report
May. 2018: 31,517
May was another strong month for the U.S. labor market. India
GDP
2018Q1: 7.7%
India's GDP growth notched an impressive 7.7% y/y in the March quarter, its fastest pace in almost two years and just prior to the implementation of demonetisation and to a lesser extent the goods and services tax knocking the economy off its growth trajectory. Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Mar. 2018: 3.1%
The Canadian labor market advanced modestly in March. Canada
GDP
2018Q1: 1.3%
The Canadian economy registered a slow start to 2018. Canada
Industry Output
Mar. 2018: 0.3%
The Canadian economy continued its steady growth in March. United States
Jobless Claims
May 26: 221,000
The labor market is steady as she goes. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
May. 2018: 161.1
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index posted a rating of 161 for May’s edition of the Federal Reserve report. United States
Personal Income
Apr. 2018: 0.3%
Nominal personal income rose by 0.3% in April, better than the downwardly revised 0.2% gain in March and in line with our forecast for a 0.3% gain. United States
PCE Deflator
Apr. 2018: 0.2%
Inflation continues to dance around the Federal Reserve’s target and will allow the central bank to raise interest rates in June. United States
Personal Spending
Apr. 2018: 0.4%
Real consumer spending has now posted two months of strong growth after starting the year with two months of declines. Chile
Employment
Apr. 2018: 6.7%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.7% in the February-April rolling quarter, unchanged from a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Apr. 2018: 11.8%
The national industry advanced solidly in April, partly benefited by the timing of Easter. United States
Pending Home Sales
Apr. 2018: 106.4
The pending home sales index fell 1.3% to 106.4 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, giving back all of its March gains. United States
Risk of Recession
Apr. 2018: 16%
The probability that the U.S. will be in recession in six months increased in April but remained low. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
May 25: -1.15
Financial market stress eased last week behind a strong Wall Street performance. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
May 25: 96 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas stocks fell short of analyst predictions, which will apply upward pressure on prices. United States
Oil Inventories
May 25: 434.5 mil barrels
A larger than expected decline in crude oil inventories will apply upward pressure on prices. South Korea
Foreign Trade
May. 2018:
Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Apr. 2018: 3.4%
According to Argentina’s statistics office, industrial output expanded 3.4% y/y in April (NSA), after 1.2% in the previous month. South Korea
Consumer Price Index
May. 2018:
South Korea
GDP
2018Q1:
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