Economy.com Daily Update: May 7, 2021

Today's Economy

April U.S. employment falls well short of expectations, supporting Fed's approach of patience.

Several factors are weighing on labor supply, some are temporary.

Economic growth is poised to surge once the latest wave of infections abates.

New jobs in April came in at one-third of our expectation.

Commentary

We dig deeper into April's disappointing jobs report.

Relatively successful virus containment has facilitated a buoyant recovery.

Inflation pressures grew last month in Germany, France and Spain.

We expect Hong Kong's GDP to have recovered, while Malaysia's is flat.

Today's Economic Indicators

Switzerland
Unemployment rate
Apr. 2021: 3.1%
Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.1% in April from 3.3% in March.

France
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 0.8%
French industrial production rose by 0.8% m/m in March, after February’s 4.8% downturn.

Spain
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 0.4%
Spain's industrial production index gained 0.4% m/m in March after falling by 0.1% in February.

Italy
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: -0.1% m/m
Italy’s retail sales were relatively stable in monthly terms in March, as another drop in nonfood spending offset higher food sales.

Germany
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 2.5%
German industrial production bounced back in March, rising by 2.5% m/m following a downwardly revised 1.9% drop the previous month.

Ireland
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: -2.0%
Irish industrial production fell by 2% in March from the previous month.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 3.32% y/y
Inflation revived in April, with the annual rate surpassing the 3% target.

Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Mar. 2021: 2.4% y/y
Household consumption reported annual growth in March after a contraction in February.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 6.08% y/y
Mexico’s inflation rebounded strongly in April, which put the annual rate well above the 4% upper limit.

United States
Employment Situation
Apr. 2021: 266,000 m/m, ths
Payroll employment was far weaker in April than expected.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Apr. 2021: 8.1%
Canada's labor market fortunes reversed course in April as restrictions tightened across many of the provinces because of a surge in COVID-19 cases.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
May 05: 88.7
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index jumped again this week, increasing 0.5 point from a revised 88.2 to 88.7.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
April 30: 1.98%
Inflation expectations remained on an even keel at 2% in the week ended May 2, 2021, according to the Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse.

United States
MBA Delinquency Rates
2021Q1: 6.38%
Mortgage delinquency rates dropped 35 basis points to 6.38% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Mar. 2021: 1.3% m/m
Wholesale inventories expanded 1.3% in March, following an upwardly revised 1% increase in February.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Apr. 2021: 60.6
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index fell in April to 60.6 from 72.9 in March.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2021: US$2,039.7 mil
Chile's trade balance widened to $2 billion in April as surging copper prices pushed exports to a record high.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 5.5% y/y
The seemingly inexhaustible climb in Russian inflation took a much-needed pause in April.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Mar. 2021: $25.8 bil
Consumer credit expanded by $25.8 billion in March, following a comparably sized increase of $26.2 billion in February.