Economy.com Daily Update: November 15, 2016

Today's Economy

Less inventory last quarter implies a larger build this quarter.

A gain was broad-based with only restaurants and furniture/home furnishings dropping.

Removing high-valued rupee notes from circulation is a small step.

German PMIs show the country may again overtake Italy in coming quarters.

Commentary

The economy under President Trump will likely navigate through a bit better in the near term, but ultimately it will be diminished.

The economy needs capital accumulation to accelerate and sustain growth.

The president-elect’s trade and immigration policies, along with fiscal stimulus, could be inflationary in the near term.

There is now considerable uncertainty in our near-term outlook for the U.S. economy.

Today's Economic Indicators

Peru
Unemployment
Oct. 2016: 6.2%
The jobless rate in the Lima metropolitan area ticked down for the three months ending in October, falling 30 basis points to 6.2%.

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2016: US$1.21 bil
External demand in Indonesia is worrying, but an increase in nonoil exports in October is welcomed.

India
Wholesale Price Index
Oct. 2016: 3.4%
India’s inflation suggests there’s room for more rate cuts in the coming months.

Germany
Preliminary GDP
2016Q3: 0.2%
German output advanced 0.2% q/q in the third quarter after increasing 0.4% in the previous stanza.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 0.7%
Spain’s headline inflation gained momentum in October as the drag from energy prices washed out and clothing prices started to recover. The headline index added 0.7% y/y from 0.2% in the previous month.

France
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 0.5%
Inflation in France is still low but firmly in positive territory.

Italy
Preliminary GDP
2016Q3: 0.3%
After no growth in the second quarter, Italy’s economy expanded by 0.3% q/q in the three months to September, exceeding our and market expectations.

United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 0.9%
The U.K.

United Kingdom
Producer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 2.1%
The U.K.'s output producer price index rose 2.1% y/y in October, up from an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in the previous month.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Sep. 2016: €26.5 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus expanded sharply in September to €26.5 billion, not seasonally adjusted, from €19.2 billion in September 2015, as exports rose while imports contracted.

Germany
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Nov. 2016: 13.8
Investor confidence in Germany soared to 13.8 in November from 6.2 in the previous month.

India
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 4.2%
India's consumer price inflation has settled just below the central bank's 5% target.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Oct. 2016: 0.5%
October import prices rose more than either we or the consensus had anticipated, but the immediate implications for domestic inflation dynamics are minimal.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Sep. 2016: -0.9%
The number of new vehicles sold in September increased by 1.3% from August to 177,138, making this the first monthly gain since April.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Nov. 2016: 1.5
Factories in New York may be getting back on track, according to the November Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

United States
Retail Sales
Oct. 2016: 0.8%
Retail sales grew strongly again in October, and gains for September were revised up, suggesting consumer spending growth is improving.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Sep. 2016: 0.1%
Strong sales growth slowed the inventory build below expectations.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
November 11: 88.5
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will boost uncertainty.

China
Foreign Direct Investment
Oct. 2016:

India
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2016:

United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Oct. 2016: 2.9%
Total U.S. household borrowing grew 2.88% year-over-year in October, down from 3.65% growth in September.