Economy.com Daily Update: November 22, 2024

Today's Economy

While consumers are still spending at an impressive clip, sentiment has lagged behind.

The loonie depreciated to its lowest value in four years after the U.S. election.

New weakness in the once-resilient service sector amplified the damage.

German GDP was revised lower as euro zone PMI's deteriorated and U.K. retail sales slumped.

Commentary

We expect little change in third-quarter GDP growth, which came in at an impressive 2.8% in the initial estimate because of strength in consumer spending.

Mexico’s economy contracts while Chile's advances.

We’ve penciled in a slight acceleration in the euro zone harmonized inflation rate for November.

Tariffs and a hit to confidence mar China's outlook, leading us to lower our forecasts.

Today's Economic Indicators

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Oct. 2024: -0.7% m/m
The volume of U.K. retail sales plunged 0.7% month on month in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in September.

Germany
GDP
2024Q3: 0.1% q/q
The German economy expanded by just 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Sep. 2024: 0.3% y/y
Mexico’s economic activity continued to underperform in September, restrained by the industrial weakness caused by the political transition's contractionary phase.

Mexico
GDP
2024Q3: 1.6% y/y
Mexico’s economy continued to underperform in the third quarter, affected by the contractionary phase of the political cycle as the federal budget lost steam in the last tranche of the outgoing government and private investment retreated.

Canada
New Housing Price Index
Oct. 2024: -0.2% y/y
New-house prices in Canada significantly declined in October, marking the largest monthly decrease in 15 years.

Canada
Retail Trade
Sep. 2024: 0.4% m/m
Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, reaching C$66.9 billion.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Nov. 2024: 71.8
Confidence remains low despite posting its fourth straight gain in November and signs of a post-election bounce.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Oct. 2024: 4.4%
Monthly house price growth ticked higher in October, according to the Moody’s Analytics House Price Index.

Peru
GDP
2024Q3: 3.8% y/y
The Peruvian economy continued its recovery in the third quarter amid low and stable inflation, stronger job market gains, and improved consumer and business confidence.

Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Sep. 2024: -3.3% y/y
The statistics office’s monthly economic output index (a proxy for GDP) fell 3.3% year on year in September after falling 3.7% in the previous month.