Economy.com Daily Update: November 3, 2017

Today's Economy

U.S. trade and factory orders raised our tracking estimate of third quarter GDP growth from 3.1% to 3.3% at an annualized rate.

Gradual policy normalization in the U.S. reduces risks to Latin America’s recovery.

The larger inventory build puts Q3 GDP tracking 3.3%.

The U.S. labor market still feels lingering effects of the hurricanes.

Commentary

The odds of a recession occurring in the next 12 months remain extremely low.

Accommodative monetary policy has no end in sight.

The next week will shed light on industrial performance at the end of the third quarter.

President Xi Jinping is China's ruler for a generation, rather than a decade.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2017: MYR8.6 bil
Malaysia's monthly trade surplus narrowed to MYR8.6 billion in October from a MRY9.8 billion surplus in September.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Sep. 2017: 3.8%
Chile’s index of commercial activity posted another month of solid gains, rising 3.8% in September.

United States
Employment Situation
Oct. 2017: 261,000
The recovery from hurricanes, which depressed payrolls in September, was smaller than we had expected.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Sep. 2017: -C$ 3.18 bil
Canada's trade balance remained deep in the red in September, as the international trade balance registered a C$3.2 billion deficit.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Oct. 2017: 6.3%
Employment growth picked back up in October, though not enough to stem a slight increase in the jobless rate.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Sep. 2017: -$43.5 bil
The U.S. trade deficit widened modestly in September, increasing by $700 million to $43.5 billion.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Sep. 2017: 1.4%
Factory orders have logged now the best two-month streak since spring 2016, advancing 1.4% in September after a 1.2% gain in August.

United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Oct. 2017: 60.1
The ISM nonmanufacturing survey’s composite came in better than expected in October, rising from 59.8 to 60.1.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
October 27: 146.1
The U.S. economic expansion is on solid ground, and prospects for the months ahead look good.

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2017: 6.5%
Consumer prices in Uruguay accelerated for a third consecutive month as food and beverage prices rose more than expected.