Economy.com Daily Update: November 4, 2021

Today's Economy

Fed's void in absorbing Treasury supply can be easily filled.

The central bank acts to slow inflation in an expanding economy.

With inflation set to reach 5% next spring, the bank noted a rate hike will likely occur soon.

Weaker iron ore prices are hurting.

Commentary

Google Mobility data show the degree to which remote work may be affecting U.S. regional trends.

Concerns that the plan will ignite undesirably high inflation and an overheating U.S. economy are overdone.

Global supply chains remain under immense pressure, posing material inflation risks.

One reason that labor supply constraints should be less binding is that wage growth is accelerating.

Today's Economic Indicators

Norway
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2021: 0.25%
Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% at its November meeting, after a 25-basis point increase in September.

United States
Challenger Report
Oct. 2021: 22,822
Job cut announcements rose to 22,822 in October, a 28% increase from September and the highest reported total since May.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: -4.4% y/y
Brazil's national industry contracted in September as activities were affected by the pandemic and global supply disruptions.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Sep. 2021: C$ 1.5 bil
Canada’s trade surplus widened again in September.

United States
Jobless Claims
October 30: 269,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have declined noticeably over the past few weeks.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2021Q3: -5.0%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. productivity is volatile.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Sep. 2021: -$80.9 bil
The U.S. nominal trade deficit widened less than we expected in September, but net exports remained a significant drag on third-quarter GDP.

Netherlands
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 3.4% y/y
Consumer price inflation in the Netherlands rose to 3.4%, the highest rate in nearly two decades.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Nov. 2021: 0.1%
Despite market expectation, the Bank of England voted 7-2 to hold its benchmark interest rate at 0.1%.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 29: -1.01
Financial stress picked up last week, with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 29: 63 bil cubic feet
Last week’s increase in natural gas stocks fell short of analyst predictions, which will probably put some upward pressure on already-high prices.

Indonesia
GDP
2021Q3:

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 7.9% y/y
Uruguayan inflation rose above the 7% upper limit for the fifth consecutive month and came in at 7.89% in October.