Economy.com Daily Update: November 8, 2024

Today's Economy

Consumer sentiment improved in November but remains low.

The U.S. president-elect made history as the first since 1888 to win two nonconsecutive terms.

Which Canadian industries are most exposed to potential Trump tariffs?

We expect economic growth to resume in the fourth quarter but remain marginal.

Commentary

We expect a 0.3% monthly increase in the headline CPI, bringing the annual rate up slightly to 2.6%.

Mexico’s inflation rate ticks up as Uruguay’s declines.

The Fed sees risks to inflation and employment as roughly in balance and is expected to continue loosening policy.

U.K. GDP likely decelerated quarter to quarter in the three months that ended in September.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumption Activity Index
Sep. 2024: -0.2% m/m
The Bank of Japan’s real consumption activity index, adjusted for travel, fell by 0.2% month over month in September, matching our forecast.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2024: US$6.9 bil
Taiwan’s trade surplus fell to $6.9 billion in October from $7.1 billion in September.

Italy
Industrial Production
Sep. 2024: -0.4% m/m
Italy's industrial production fell by 0.4% month over month in September, versus our forecast of a 0.1% drop.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024: 4.68% y/y
In October, annual inflation rebounded strongly and remained above the target range as consumer prices continued to face pressure, especially in the service sector.

Italy
Retail Sales
Sep. 2024: 1.2% m/m
Italy’s retail sales surprised to the upside in September, soaring by 1.2% month over month versus our forecast of a 0.2% drop.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024: 4.76% y/y
Brazil’s inflation climbed higher in October as prices of food and beverages and housing rebounded significantly.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Oct. 2024: 6.5%
Despite disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.5% in October.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Nov. 2024: 73.0
Confidence remains low despite posting its fourth straight gain in November.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2024: 5%
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in its November meeting, bringing it to 5%.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2024: US$1,449.3 mil
Chile recorded another large trade surplus in October, with surging copper prices upping the trade balance despite the first sizable increase in imports this year.

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024:

China
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024:

China
Producer Price Index
Oct. 2024: