Economy.com Daily Update: October 13, 2017

Today's Economy

U.S. core inflation remains missing in action.

Brazil's and Argentina's economic recoveries are spurring consumer demand.

Hurricanes could continue to affect the September data.

Fears that the rapid rise in house prices will automatically be followed by a steep decline contradict the typical historical experience.

Commentary

The RBI is unlikely to cut rates further in 2017, with a 25% chance of hiking in 2018.

Coming U.K. data will be crucial in determining if the BoE will dare to hike rates in November.

Europe's west-east divide among member countries is widening.

China's economy likely grew 6.9% y/y in Q3, unchanged from the pace in Q2.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Sep. 2017: 0.4%
Global inflation has perked up, but higher energy prices are playing a role and could prove temporary.

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Sep. 2017: 10.4%
House prices rose 0.2% in September across the 13 largest Canadian markets, causing year-ago price growth to tick downwards to 10.4% from 10.7% in August.

Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2017Q3: 4.6%
Singapore’s GDP growth hit its strongest pace since early 2014 on the back of surging global manufacturing demand.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2017: 1.8%
Germany's annual national measure of inflation held steady at 1.8% in September, seasonally adjusted.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2017: 1.3%
Inflation remained tame in Italy, with annual EU-harmonized inflation rising 1.3% in September, down from 1.4% in the previous month.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2017: 3.5%
Peru’s central bank kept the policy rate unchanged in October, leaving the key reference rate at 3.5%.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2017: 0.5%
Even though higher gasoline prices provided a big boost to the U.S. consumer price index in September, it still came in a little light.

United States
Retail Sales
Sep. 2017: 1.6%
Retail sales surged in September, posting their largest gain since March 2015, but the growth was dominated by special factors.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Aug. 2017: 0.7%
The stockpile build is shifting into a higher gear.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2017: 101.1
Consumer sentiment spiked in the preliminary October report, rising 6 points over September’s index and hitting its highest level since January 2004.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
October 06: 145.2
The U.S. economy is on solid ground, and although gains will moderate as the expansion matures, economic prospects for the coming quarters look good.