Economy.com Daily Update: October 13, 2022

Today's Economy

The September CPI report cements a 75-basis point rate hike in November.

The country's central bank was aggressive at the beginning.

Energy prices continue to be the main driver of inflation.

Its view of neutral lends weight to the case for interest rate cuts next year.

Commentary

What are the best indicators of short- and long-term country risk, and what steps can firms take to identify, assess and manage this multi-layered threat effectively in a world rife with uncertainty?

Price shocks have widened the divide between energy exporters and energy importers.

Following the abrupt rise in mortgage rates, a moderate house price correction is expected.

The expected loss in Russian supply, along with fresh cuts by Saudi Arabia, might turn the global oil balance into a deficit again by the first quarter of 2023.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 10.0% y/y
Germany’s year-on-year CPI inflation rate reached double digits in September, rising to 10% from 7.9% in August.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 10.8% y/y
Sweden’s inflation rate spiked again this September, rising to 10.8% y/y from 9.8% previously.

Ireland
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 8.2% y/y
Irish inflation dropped second month in a row, printing 8.2% in September after 8.7% in August.

Portugal
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 9.3%
Portugal’s inflation increased to 9.3% y/y in September, up from 8.9% in August, marking a slight acceleration in price gains.

United States
Jobless Claims
October 08: 228,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits increased less than anticipated, suggesting that the impact from Hurricane Ian was more modest than expected.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 0.4% m/m
The U.S. consumer price index cements another 75-basis point rate hike at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 07: -1.22
Financial stress conditions were mostly unchanged last week with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 07: 125 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in natural gas inventories was just a hair below analyst expectations but was much larger than historical norms for this time of year.

United States
Oil Inventories
October 07: 439.1 mil barrels
A much larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories should push down on oil prices.

South Korea
Employment
Sep. 2022:

Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2022Q3:

China
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2022:

China
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022:

China
Producer Price Index
Sep. 2022: