Economy.com Daily Update: October 16, 2020

Today's Economy

Muted spending during the summer and a slowdown in the global recovery stunted remittance flows.

Third-quarter GDP tracking gets a boost from strong September retail sales.

Retail sales were strong in September but favorable seasonals helped juice growth.

Policy will remain a key differentiator of country performance.

Commentary

The economy lost some momentum but is holding up well.

Two new datapoints will round out the economic picture for August.

September retail sales likely fell in both the U.K. and Russia.

Japan's exports can't overcome weak global demand.

Today's Economic Indicators

Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2020: -0.3%
Final numbers confirmed that euro zone consumer prices fell by 0.3% y/y in September, adding to the 0.2% drop in August.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Aug. 2020: €14.7 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade surplus in goods increased to €14.7 billion in August 2020 from €14.4 billion a year earlier.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2020: -0.6%
Italy's headline CPI fell by 0.6% y/y in September, for the fifth month in a row, below preliminary estimates of a 0.5% drop.

Canada
International Transactions in Securities
Aug. 2020: C$15.5 bil
Foreign investors reversed course in August and increased their holdings of Canadian assets, while Canadians continued to invest abroad.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Aug. 2020: -2.0%
Manufacturing slipped in August with sales falling by 2% to C$52.4 billion for the month.

United States
Retail Sales
Sep. 2020: 1.9%
Retail sales growth exceeded expectations and our above-consensus forecast despite the fact that in total the recovery is nearly complete.

United States
Industrial Production
Sep. 2020: -0.6%
U.S. industrial production fell 0.6% in September, its first decrease in the last five months.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Aug. 2020: 0.3%
Business inventories reversed their decline again in August, though by less than expected.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
October 14: 81.3
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal index remains unchanged this week, coming in at 81.3.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2020: 81.2
U.S. consumer sentiment added modestly to its September gains in October despite the economy barely growing.

United States
Median usual weekly earnings
2020Q3: 8.2%
Nominal wage growth posted another solid gain in the third quarter.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Aug. 2020: $27.8 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the fourth straight month in August.