Economy.com Daily Update: October 30, 2024

Today's Economy

The U.S. economy notched another quarter of impressive growth as real GDP rose 2.8%.

The winner will likely continue the outgoing president’s economic agenda.

Euro zone GDP growth beat estimates; Germany clocked an expansion.

The central bank will want to see more progress on core inflation before cutting interest rates.

Commentary

The new government's bold fiscal plans have already prompted a rise in bond yields.

GDP increased at the fastest pace in more than two years despite the pessimism of market commentators.

The Treasury Department keeps new debt issuance steady amid softening demand.

The Netherlands market continues to gain momentum as rising real disposable income and improving sentiment drive demand.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Industrial Production
Sep. 2024: -3.5% y/y
Thai industrial production tumbled 3.5% year on year in September, proving our forecast for a 0.4% expansion to be too optimistic.

France
GDP
2024Q3: 0.4% q/q
France’s economy grew 0.4% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.2% advance in the second quarter.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2024Q3: 0.4% q/q
Euro zone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q during the third quarter, accelerating from a 0.2% gain in the second quarter and beating both the consensus and our forecasts.

Germany
GDP
2024Q3: 0.2% q/q
According to the preliminary estimate, Germany’s GDP rebounded by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, following a downwardly revised contraction of 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Spain
GDP
2024Q3: 0.8% q/q
In Spain, the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter beat expectations.

Germany
Unemployment
Oct. 2024: 6.1%
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in October, unchanged from the upwardly revised reading for September.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Oct. 2024: 95.6
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator fell to 95.6 in October from 96.3 in September, in line with our expectations.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024: 3.2% y/y
In October, Belgium’s CPI inflation rate increased to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% in September.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
October 25: -0.1%
U.S. mortgage activity inched down in the week ended October 25.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Sep. 2024: -1.1% y/y
Chile’s manufacturing production disappointed again in September, contracting after a two-month recovery.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Sep. 2024: 3.2% y/y
Retail sales in Chile rose for the second consecutive month in September but could not offset the sharp decline in July, making for a small contraction once accounting for the whole third quarter.

United States
GDP
2024Q3: 2.8%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. economic growth remained strong in the third quarter, coming in at 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ preliminary estimate.

Chile
Employment
Sep. 2024: 8.7%
The Chilean economy continued to add jobs at a measured pace in the third quarter.

United States
Business Employment Dynamics
2024Q1: 7.6 mil
According to a hard count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gross job gains totaled 7.6 million in the first quarter following a 7.9 million gross job gain in the final quarter of 2023.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Sep. 2024: 7.4% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index accelerated in September, gaining 7.4% from the month prior and 2.6% on a year-ago basis.

United States
Oil Inventories
October 25: 425.5 mil barrels
Oil inventories had a small draw of 500,000 barrels in the week ended October 25, defying consensus expectations of a 1-million barrel build.

South Korea
Industrial Production
Sep. 2024:

South Korea
Retail Sales
Sep. 2024:

Japan
Industrial Production
Sep. 2024:

Australia
Retail Sales
Sep. 2024:

China
Manufacturing PMI
Oct. 2024:

Japan
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2024: