Economy.com Daily Update: October 31, 2022

Today's Economy

We expect that the Federal Reserve will press on with another 75-basis point rate hike.

Regional Fed surveys point to further weakness in core capital-goods shipments.

Will the current post-election peace last?

GDP in the euro zone grew 0.2% q/q in the three months to September.

Commentary

Data released last week point to trouble for important engines of U.S. economic growth.

We'll see how tight the labor market is with the JOLTS and unemployment data.

At the end of October, the signals of a U.S. downturn are small but rising compared with the previous nine months.

Unemployment declines in Brazil but ticks up in Chile.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Aug. 2022: 53.7%
The probability of global recession fell almost 5 percentage points from 58.4% in July to 53.7% in August.

Thailand
Industrial Production
Sep. 2022: 3.4%
Thailand’s industrial production grew 3.4% in September from a year earlier, down from a revised growth figure of 14.9% in August.

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Oct. 2022: 29.9
Japan’s consumer confidence index ticked down to 29.9 in October from 30.8 in September.

Netherlands
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: -3.0% y/y
In September, the volume of retail sales was 3% lower than in the same month a year ago.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2022: US$1.9 bil
A rebound in electronic exports has resulted in a $1.9 billion trade surplus for Thailand in September.

Germany
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: 0.9% m/m
German real retail sales expanded 0.9% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, following a fall of 1.4% m/m in August.

Denmark
Unemployment rate
Sep. 2022: 2.5%
The Danish unemployment rate fell in to 2.5% in September.

Spain
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: 0.2% m/m
Spain's retail sales grew 0.2% month on month in September.

Switzerland
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: 3.2% y/y
Retail sales in Switzerland grew by 0.9% m/m this September, the same as in August, after downward revisions.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2022Q3: -4.5% y/y
The Hong Kong economy defied our expectations of tepid growth, contracting 4.5% y/y in the third quarter, compared to the revised 1.3% contraction in the prior quarter.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2022Q3: 0.2% q/q
According to preliminary estimates, the euro zone’s third-quarter GDP grew 0.2% q/q, slowing from a 0.8% increase in the second.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2022: 10.7% y/y
According to preliminary estimates, the euro zone’s HICP grew 10.7% y/y in October.

Portugal
Industrial Production
Sep. 2022: 0.9%
In September, Portuguese industrial production declined to 2.5% m/m after a 2.8% jump in August.

United States
Bankruptcy Filings
2022Q3: 2.9% y/y
Consumer finances remain strong, supported by plentiful job openings and leftover cash from excess saving that took place in 2020 and 2021.

United States
Monthly GDP
Sep. 2022: -0.2% m/m
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of monthly real GDP suggests output fell in September.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
October 28: 4.3
Global businesses remain on edge as they have all year.

United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Oct. 2022: -19.4
Texas factory activity weakened in October.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
October 26: 92.2
The Moody’s Analytics Back-to-Normal Index jumped 1 point this week, from a revised 91.2 to 92.2.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Sep. 2022:

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2022:

Australia
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2022: