Economy.com Daily Update: September 14, 2018

Today's Economy

Consumer spending is strong and inventories likely will provide a big boost.

Transportation concerns are forcing oil producers to sell at a steep price discount.

Though the details were mixed, sales suggest spending will be strong in Q3.

The bank’s hawkish tone now hints that further rate hikes are on the table.

Commentary

In theory, the country could aim to keep its trade balance with the U.S. relatively unchanged by lowering U.S. imports.

A widespread crisis was unlikely but risk factors are on the rise.

Russia may enjoy hefty export receipts in the second half of the year.

Higher U.S. student loan debt is crowding out consumption for those younger than 35.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2018Q2: 3.7%
The global economy did well in the second quarter as developed economies bounced back from their first quarter funk.

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Aug. 2018: 1.7%
House price appreciation is stabilizing at a slow and steady rate.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2018: 1.6%
As expected, Italy’s annual harmonized EU inflation eased from last month’s strong pace.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Jul. 2018: €17.6 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus narrowed in July to €17.6 billion, from €21.6 billion a year earlier.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2018: 7.5%
The Russian central bank chose to raise its key policy rate to 7.5%, citing a rise in pro-inflationary risks that threaten to push inflation above the 4% target.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2018: 2.75%
Peru’s central bank left the key reference rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, keeping the target rate at 2.75%.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Aug. 2018: -0.6%
Though inflation is hovering around the Federal Reserve’s objective, there will need to be spark for it to make a break higher.

United States
Retail Sales
Aug. 2018: 0.1%
Retail sales growth remains healthy though inconsistent, as consumers benefit from strong job gains.

United States
Tech Pulse
Aug. 2018:

United States
Industrial Production
Aug. 2018: 0.4%
U.S. industrial production rose 0.4% in August, better than we anticipated.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Jul. 2018: 0.6%
Stockpile growth is picking up speed, and odds are that the inventory build will be larger in the third quarter than it was in the second.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2018: 100.8
Consumer sentiment rebounded in the preliminary September report, gaining 4.6 points and rising to 100.8, its highest level since March.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
September 07: 148.0
The U.S. economy remains healthy, and prospects for the coming months are positive.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Jul. 2018: 3.5%
Manufacturing output expanded 3.5% y/y in July, up from 1.3% in the previous month.

Uruguay
GDP
2018Q2: 2.5%
Uruguay’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% y/y in the second quarter of 2018, up slightly from the 2.2% rate in the previous period.