Economy.com Daily Update: September 15, 2017

Today's Economy

U.S. retail sales disappointed in August, but some of the weakness can be attributed to Harvey.

Retail sales, industrial production and business inventories have growth tracking 2.6%.

Output has flagged for traditional producers and surged in Brazil.

Demand is still soft, which could prompt more interest-rate reductions in October.

Commentary

Investors will watch for clues on whether to expect a U.K. interest rate increase in November.

Slack is shrinking; expect stronger wage gains soon.

Retail consumption remains weak in Argentina and Mexico.

Japanese exports stayed buoyant in August; the BoJ policy statement will be neutral in September.

Today's Economic Indicators

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Aug. 2017: 10.5%
On a year-over-year basis, house prices increased 10.5% in August, down from 10.9% from the previous month.

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2017: US$1.72 bil
Indonesia's monthly trade surplus reached its highest level in five years at US$1.72 billion in August, from the US$274 million deficit in July.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Jul. 2017: €23.2 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus narrowed in July to €23.2 billion, after it increased to a revised €26.2 billion in June.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2017: 8.5%
The Russian Central Bank dropped its key policy rate to 8.5% after its September meeting.

Uruguay
GDP
2017Q2: 2.8%
Uruguay’s economy took a slight misstep in the second quarter, but the outlook remains bright.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2017: 3.5%
Peru’s central bank eased monetary conditions in September, citing below-potential growth and stable inflation.

Peru
Unemployment
Aug. 2017: 6.7%
The jobless rate in the Lima metropolitan area edged lower in the three months ending in August, tagging in at 6.7%.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Sep. 2017: 24.4
The good times keep on rolling for factories in New York according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

United States
Retail Sales
Aug. 2017: -0.2%
Retail sales took a small step back in August and Hurricane Harvey likely was a net negative.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Jul. 2017: 5.1%
The number of new motor vehicles sold fell by 10.7% from June to 184,809 in July, with sales of both new cars and new trucks declining.

United States
Industrial Production
Aug. 2017: -0.9%
Industrial production lost 0.9% in August, a closer read to our forecast than the consensus.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Aug. 2017: 1.5%
Russian industrial production came in at 1.5% year over year in August, improving 0.4 point from July.

United States
Regional and State Employment
Aug. 2017:
The U.S. labor market expanded solidly in August, though at a slightly weaker tempo than last year.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2017: 95.3
Consumer sentiment dropped 1.5 points in the preliminary September report from the University of Michigan.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Jul. 2017: 0.2%
Stockpile growth moderated in July, but signs of an inventory glut persist.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
September 08: 143.3
The U.S. economy is performing well.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Jul. 2017: 6.2%
The national industry rebounded strongly in July, after contractions earlier in the year.