| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Government Shutdown Averted…For Now President Biden is expected to sign a three-month stopgap measure to fund the federal government through December. Awaiting August’s PCE Deflator We expect mild 0.1% monthly increases in the headline and core results for the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Europe Daily Briefing: Ain’t No Sunshine German consumers are still gloomy despite the marginal improvement in sentiment. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Singapore Industrial Production Takes Off Semiconductor production rebounds from a low base. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Employment Outlook: Back on the (Beveridge) Curve The jobless rate is expected to average 4.3% in the third quarter before finishing the year at 4.2% and easing to 4.1% by the end of 2025. China Risk Matrix: Tough Going Households are preferring to save their money. China Chartbook: Better Late Than Never Officials are belatedly rolling out help for the economy. Australia Risk Matrix: Pain Lingers, but Hope Is on the Horizon The risk of a lift in inflation eases as households save cost-of-living supports. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Singapore
Industrial Production
Aug. 2024: 21.0% y/y
Singapore’s industrial production surged 21% y/y in August, exceeding our forecast of 15.9%, which was already top of the consensus range. Thailand
Industrial Production
Aug. 2024: -1.9% y/y
Thai industrial production fell 1.9% year on year in August, proving our and market expectations for a 0.4% decline to be optimistic. Switzerland
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2024: 1.0%
The Swiss National Bank cut its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 1% at its September 26 meeting. Spain
Retail Sales
Aug. 2024: 0.4% m/m
In seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms, Spain’s retail sales expanded 0.4% month over month in August. Hong Kong SAR (China)
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2024: -HKD33.1 bil
Hong Kong’s merchandise trade deficit was HKD33.1 billion in August, widening from HKD21.8 billion in July. United States
Jobless Claims
September 21: 218,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance remain rock solid. United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Aug. 2024: 0.0% m/m
After surging in July, U.S. durable goods orders were virtually unchanged in August, increasing a mere $100 million from the month prior. United States
GDP
2024Q2: 3.0%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. economic growth strongly moved back above potential in the second quarter, coming in at 3%, nearly double the 1.6% growth for the first quarter, according to the BEA’s third estimate. Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Jul. 2024: 4.5% y/y
The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer increased 32,800 (0.2%) in July, following a 0.1% decline in June that had ended five consecutive monthly increases from January to May. United States
Industry GDP
2024Q2: 2.9 ppt, SAAR
In the second quarter, private industries contributed 2.9 percentage points to the 3% annualized growth in real GDP. United States
Pending Home Sales
Aug. 2024: 0.6% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index picked up in August, with a gain of 0.6% from the month prior. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
September 20: -0.43
U.S. financial market stress declined to -0.43 in the week ended September 20, according to the St. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
September 20: 47 bil cubic feet
Gas stocks rose by slightly less than analysts predicted last week, which put some upward pressure on prices. United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Sep. 2024: -8
Factory activity in the Federal Reserve’s Tenth District declined in September, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Manufacturing Survey. Mexico
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2024: 10.50%
The Bank of Mexico continued to ease monetary conditions in September as inflation resumed its decline after edging higher for four months. » VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS | 