Economy.com Daily Update: September 27, 2024

Today's Economy

The PCE deflator was the headline, but new data on the health of consumers are critical to a soft landing.

What subsectors have been behind declining manufacturing output?

The U.S. and the EU are nearing an agreement on a $50 billion aid package for Ukraine, funded primarily through frozen Russian assets.

Industrial sentiment fell again in September.

Commentary

Concerns remain that the labor market could crash land instead of soft land, but we continue to expect that job growth will moderate in an orderly fashion as layoffs remain low.

The Republican presidential candidate has proposed a 10% tariff on nearly all goods imported into the U.S.

Economic activity rebounds in Mexico but stumbles in Argentina.

Hong Kong's fortunes will track those of China.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Unemployment
Sep. 2024: 6.0%
Germany’s unemployment rate was 6% in September, unchanged for the fourth month running and up from 5.7% in the same month a year earlier.

Spain
GDP
2024Q2: 0.8% q/q
In seasonally adjusted terms, Spain's GDP grew 0.8% q/q in the three months to June, with no major changes relative to the preliminary estimate.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Sep. 2024: 96.2
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator fell to 96.2 in September from 96.5 in August, in line with our expectations.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2024: 3.1% y/y
In September, Belgium’s CPI inflation rate increased to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% in August.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Aug. 2024: 6.6%
Brazil’s unemployment rate adjusted down further in August as the economy keeps gaining traction and creating more jobs.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Aug. 2024: -US$4,868.0 mil
Mexico’s trade balance remained in negative territory in August as the value of imports remained high in an environment of currency depreciation.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Aug. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Advance estimates show that wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in August, or 0.7% annually following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in July.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Aug. 2024: -$94.3 bil
The advance international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $94.3 billion in August from $102.8 billion in July as the value of U.S. exports increased while spending on imports decreased.

United States
Personal Income
Aug. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Nominal personal income slowed in August, rising just 0.2% from the previous month.

United States
PCE Deflator
Aug. 2024: 0.1% m/m
From July to August, the personal consumption expenditure deflator ticked up 0.1%, as expected.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Aug. 2024: 0.1% m/m
Real consumer spending growth moderated in August but remains on a healthy trend.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Jul. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Real gross domestic product inched ahead 0.2% in July after moving sideways in the previous month.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2024: 70.1
Confidence remains under pressure as concerns about the election, slowing job growth, and incomes are offsetting other supports.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Aug. 2024:

United States
State Personal Income
2024Q2: 5.3%, SAAR
State personal income rose at an annualized rate of 5.3% in the second quarter after growing by an upwardly revised 9.3% in the first quarter.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Aug. 2024: 3.8% m/m
In August, the Agricultural Prices Index experienced its sharpest increase since early 2024, rebounding with a significant 3.8% rise after a dip in July.