💰 Elon Musk wants to give you $5,000

What’s going on here?

Everyday Americans could receive a fifth of the savings found by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the US president said on Thursday – let’s just hope the check’s made out in dollars, not memecoins.

What does this mean?

Elon Musk’s DOGE is tasked with cutting the fat from federal spending. And last year, the billionaire believed the department could find some $2 trillion in savings. Then again, with Musk backtracking last month, that pledge may suffer the same unrealized fate as his promise to deploy a million robotaxis by 2020 and colonize Mars by 2024. But however much DOGE does manage to save, the president now plans to hand 20% of it out to everyday Americans. If you use the $2 trillion figure for argument’s sake, that could mean $5,000 per household. Just hold fire before you scoop up a new TV: DOGE’s own figures show the department’s only found a comparatively paltry $8.6 billion in savings so far.

Why should I care?

For markets: You might want to keep that paycheck in the bank.

If Americans do find a half-decent payout in the mailbox, there’s a high chance they hand it straight over to retail stores, services, and travel businesses. And while that could spur on the economy, it may do the same to dastardly inflation – especially if supply chains strain under the pressure. You know what that means: the Federal Reserve might be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer, or even give them an upward nudge. That, at a time when the president’s proposing 25% tariffs on cars, chips, and pharmaceuticals, which would pump up costs for both businesses and consumers. And then there’s his push for a $4.5 trillion tax cut, which complicates the inflation equation even further. While tax cuts can encourage business investment and consumer spending, history shows that without government spending cuts to match, they tend to widen the debt deficit and aggravate inflation.

What’s going on here?

Walmart revealed an impressive package of quarterly results on Thursday, but the world’s biggest retailer admitted it might struggle to keep it up.

What does this mean?

The holiday season’s usually lucrative for Walmart, and last year was no exception. The grocery giant pulled in slightly more revenue and profit than investors expected, boasting sales that were strong across the board. But Walmart’s expectations for this year weren’t all good tidings. The firm is forecasting sales to increase by 3% to 4%, as most analysts expected. But it sees annual profit rising between 3.5% and 5.5% – and that’s without accounting for the impact of acquisitions and the leap year, which should shave 1.5 percentage points off that increase. That’s a serious letdown for investors, who had predicted an uptick as high as 10%. And they were quick to express that disappointment, initially sending Walmart’s stock down 9%.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The only certainty is uncertainty.

Walmart might be playing it safe because of the tariffs on the table. Most of its wares are made in the good ol’ US of A, but about a third are shipped in from abroad. So if the mooted import taxes on goods from Mexico and Canada take hold, Walmart could end up paying the price – literally. And unless it can pass those extra costs onto shoppers without losing customers, the firm could feel the pinch in its bottom line.

Zooming out: Hey, look over there!

Chinese companies risk being bitten by tariffs too, but Alibaba distracted investors from that daunting prospect with a seriously swish set of results. The country’s biggest retailer revealed forecast-beating quarterly revenue and profit on Thursday – not least because its AI-powered cloud computing business really did the, um, business. Impressed, investors initially sent its stock up 10%.