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November 4, 2020 By Daniel Kuhn If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
Top shelf Predictive markets rollicked with U.S. ballot counting. Two more crypto payments cards are expected to market. Nearly $1 billion worth of BTC moved from a long-dormant wallet potentially connected with the shuttered Silk Road exchange.
Staking begins Ethereum 2.0’s deposit contract is now live, as of 15:00 UTC. According to developer Afri Schoedon, the deposit contract (a bridge between the forthcoming proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain and the current proof-of-work (PoW) mainchain) is the first physical implementation of Eth 2.0 for everyday users. On a practical level, Ethereum stakers can now begin depositing the 32 ether (ETH) required to stake on Eth 2.0. Once 16,384 validators have deposited funds equivalent to a total of 524,288 ETH into the contract, the Beacon chain – the spine of Ethereum 2.0’s multiple blockchain design – will kick into action in what is called the “genesis” event of Ethereum 2.0. That event is expected within the next few weeks.
On the road again
Crypto cards Difficulty drop Layer1 lawsuit
CoinDesk's upcoming virtual event Bitcoin for Advisors, on two half days Nov. 9-10, aims to equip investment advisors with tools to better understand bitcoin, talk to their clients about it and work it into their business.
In close cooperation with professional advisors, CoinDesk is showcasing a program tailored to the financial advisor community. Through a series of keynotes, panels and interactive roundtable sessions, we will discuss investment theses for bitcoin, why younger demographics are turning to this asset and how it fits into the current global macroeconomic picture.
We will also walk through the practicalities: how to answer client questions about bitcoin, how to talk to your compliance department about bitcoin, how can bitcoin can help grow your book. Apply for Bitcoin for Advisors, Nov. 9-10.
Quick bites An Australian senator said blockchain technology could help facilitate “one touch” government and tighten financial regulation. (CoinDesk) Telegram will pay some $620,000 in legal fees after conceding defeat in its copyright lawsuit related to the messaging apps "GRAM" token ticker. (Decrypt) Hong Kong plans to ban retail investors from buying crypto. (Modern Consensus) Blockchain analytics firms have privacy advocates worried. (CoinDesk) Atari token falls 70% just days after public sale concludes. (Cointelegraph) Binance said has recovered nearly all $345,000 worth of cryptocurrencies stolen in an October scam that launched on its Binance Smart Chain. (CoinDesk)"On Purpose" podcast host and Onramp Invest CEO Tyrone Ross invites the public to CoinDesk’s first podcast live taping party on Wednesday, Nov. 4.
Attendees will be part of the experience and get to ask frank questions to Ross and his guests Adam Pokornicky, COO of Digital Asset Investment Management; Andy Edstrom, financial adviser and investor at WESCAP Group; and Sunayna Tuteja, head of digital assets at TD Ameritrade; as they raise the big questions for financial advisors in a jargon-free, transparent discussion.
Pokornicky, Edstrom and Tuteja, who are also speaking at CoinDesk’s Bitcoin For Advisors event for registered investment advisers Nov. 9-10, are experts in the digital asset class in the context of how it fits in the realm of portfolio management, including understanding bitcoin’s macro implications, preparing against bitcoin’s volatility and how to fold it into retirement accounts.
Podcast taping attendees will also be fast-tracked for approval to attend Bitcoin For Advisors after applying separately here.
Register for On Purpose’s live taping party on Nov. 4. Market intel Fees flee Webinar: How to Value Ethereum In this 30-minute webinar, the first of the four-part series How to Value Ethereum, CoinDesk Research looks at accounts - a concept that sounds familiar to blockchain addresses, but involves novelties and complexities that are critical to understanding how Ethereum works.
Register to join How to Value Ethereum on Nov. 11. At stake What happens to the prediction markets?
What was predicted to be a possible blowout election for former Vice President Joseph Biden has turned into a nail-biting count in a few swing states. With clear “paths to victory” giving way to “toss ups,” many in the crypto industry turned their attention to predictive markets instead. The theory hinges on the bet that those with “skin in the game” (re: cold, hard cash) might yield greater insight.
In the lead up to the election, CoinDesk reported that volumes on decentralized crypto prediction markets boomed. Polymarket, a non-custodial platform where users place bets in the dollar-backed stablecoin USDC, saw volumes surge from zero to almost $3 million in a three week span. Other crypto-based platforms, like YieldWars and Augur also began attracting attention, after long periods of dormancy.
Of course, the interest in trustless betting occurred amid a greater surge in use of centralized platforms like PredictIt. More than $1 billion had been locked into various prediction markets seeking to determine who will enter the Oval Office come January.
In the tumult of state-by-state ballot counts, prediction markets saw many take bets that President Donald Trump would keep his office – reversing a trend that previously favored Biden.
Noted industry venture capitalist Nic Carter tweeted last night that “trump is way overpriced at 68c” on FTX’s in-house prediction market. $TRUMP, a bet that the U.S. president would prevail ultimately crossed $.80 before tanking by press time.
All this is to say, election oddsmakers are just as fickle as the polls, though in different ways. In an election where crypto largely stayed out of the picture – both as a matter of candidate mandates and as a figure of political contributions – betting markets are just another alpha-seeking avenue. Prediction markets are more entertainment than anything, Carter said over Telegram. “Generally though they are a useful albeit lossy compression of news, especially in volatile situations that are hard to parse (like last night).”
“Betting markets are not great barometers. I went to several PredictIt meet-ups in 2016. The big guns were daytraders who just wanted to day trade more. There is no secret sauce there. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but oracular they are not,” NBC News reporter Ben Collins weighed in. Even less certain? The future of decentralized prediction markets.
YieldWars’ pseudonymous co-founder, Owl, previously told CoinDesk that the sudden rise in trading volume was to be expected, given the weight of the election. Though it’s unclear if this will last. “Crypto-based prediction markets should be flourishing on blockchain right now but have failed to deliver up to this point. The election has breathed life into prediction markets but what is going to happen when it ends? Are people going to be as enthusiastic about them?” Owl said.
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