EU elections: Capitals affected more than EU Parliament

Good morning from Brussels,

The results of the EU elections have had a bigger impact on many EU countries than the European Parliament itself.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections after a “crushing defeat” by the far-right.

In Berlin, the sharp rise of far-right AfD - which ranked second - and the sweeping victory of centre-right CDU-CSU, find the coalition government led by social democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz significantly weakened.

In Madrid, pressure mounts on the ruling PSOE party, as the centre-right PP won the elections, adding to an already fragile political landscape.

In Copenhagen, the centrist coalition government lost almost 15% within two years since the last election, while in Tallinn, Kaja Kallas’ centrist ruling party is in crisis mode as it came third but won’t call snap elections.

In Athens, centre-right New Democracy lost 1.1 million votes in one year and mulls reshuffling the government. Even in Budapest, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party lost ground, in what could be its worst score in its 14-year rule.

On the other hand, the new balances in the EU Parliament show that a steady pro-EU coalition is a realistic scenario despite the rise of far-right across Europe.

The centre-right EPP, the EU socialists and liberal Renew could form a 403-seat majority.

The results increase the possibility of EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen being reelected as the EU Commission’s chief.

Aurélie Pugnet, Max Griera and Alexandra Brzozowski have more.

“The majority of the centrist three looks pretty solid […] probably ahead of 410 seats”, Christopher Glück, managing director at the political analysis firm Forefront Advisers, told Euractiv.

Glück also noted that von der Leyen no longer needs Meloni's or ECR's support to get reelected in the Commission and that the negotiations between the EPP, S&D, and Renew will now be “straightforward.”

EU socialists have said they would not back von der Leyen if there would be any kind of cooperation with ECR or Meloni.

“I expect there will be quite a lot in the Draghi report that EU socialists will like, especially in the economy, as well as they will ask for reassurances about the rule of law […] while liberal Renew will seek commitments about better regulation”, the analyst said.

Contacted by Euractiv, an S&D source said that, indeed, von der Leyen will not have any issue getting a majority in the EU Parliament.

However, the source said one should wait first for what the EU leaders will decide, as the 2019 EU elections set a precedent with Manfred Weber ranking first but not being elected as Commission’s president.

With votes cast in the European elections, EU leaders are expected to start on Monday with informal deliberations on distributing the four European top jobs. Here’s a run-down of what to expect over the next week.

Click here for all the latest updates on the EU elections across the bloc.

Moreover, Anna Strolenberg, co-lead candidate of Volt Netherlands, told Euractiv on Sunday evening that they are exploring the possibility of joining the ranks of Renew’s liberals at the European Parliament and leaving their current position with the Greens/EFA group. Read the full story here.

PARIS
In the face of the far-right’s triumph in the French European elections, President Emmanuel Macron announced he would dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections, in a historic move that pleased the opposition and threw his supporters into a panic. Read more.
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BERLIN

AfD’s strong showing in German EU elections fuels far-right shift in Europe. Despite a series of recent scandals, Germany’s far-right AfD party managed to post the best national result in the party’s history in the European elections on Sunday (9 June), surpassing even the SPD of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Read more.

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VIENNA

Austrian far-right to court Le Pen to let AfD back into European party. Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which has managed to become the largest political force in the Central European country, is pushing its European political family, the Identity and Democracy (ID), to admit Germany’s scandal-ridden AfD back into its ranks. Read more.

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THE HAGUE

Dutch far-right comes out top in EU vote, as progressives overperform. Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV (ID) has come out as the largest single party as it grabbed six seats in the European Parliament, though the nine seats won by the Frans Timmermans-Bas Eickhout double-team cements them as the main opposition force in the country. Read more.

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BRUSSELS

Belgium’s Eurosceptic parties maintain EU seat count, as liberals do well. The Eurosceptic parties Vlaams Belang and N-VA have won around a third of the vote in the European elections with around 14% each, giving the far-right ID and ECR a combined six seats out of Belgium’s 22 in the European Parliament. Read more.

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LUXEMBOURG

Greens avoid wipeout in Luxembourg. Tilly Metz (Greens/EFA) will remain an MEP for the next five years despite earlier polling consistently predicting a total wipeout for the Green Party in the European Parliament. Read more.

DUBLIN

No Irish candidates in the EU race have been confirmed, results may take days. Counting for the European elections in Ireland ended on Sunday evening with no candidates confirmed as elected. Read more.

HELSINKI

Finnish PM celebrates victory in EU vote as expected far-right surge flops. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo celebrated victory amid a record voter turnout in the European elections on Sunday, with the expected far-right surge failing to materialise. Read more.

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STOCKHOLM

Swedish left beats far-right as Liberals avoid catastrophe. The Swedish Greens have unexpectedly come out ahead of the Sweden Democrats (SD, ECR), and the ruling Liberals have narrowly avoided being thrown out of the European Parliament, according to provisional results published by the Swedish government. Read more.

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COPENHAGEN

Danish Greens topple Social Democrats as government support crumbles. Denmark’s centrist government was put to the test during the EU elections, facing voters for the first time since national polls at the end of 2022. Read more.

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VILNIUS

Lithuania’s Conservatives come out on top in EU vote. The ruling Homeland Union-Christian Democrats of Lithuania (EPP) has won the EU elections, securing three seats in the European Parliament with 21.3% of the vote, while the centre-left Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (S&D), which led pre-election polls, came in second with 18% of the vote and two of Lithuania’s 11 seats, according to the country’s Central Election Commission (VRK). Read more.

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RIGA

Latvia boosts EPP, ECR as results come in from Saturday’s vote. The ruling centre-right coalition Jaunā Vienotība (JV/EPP) won Latvia’s elections with 25.7% of the vote, followed by the opposition Nacionālā Apvienība (NA/ECR) with 22.08%, securing two MEP seats each for the EPP and ECR groups in the European Parliament, provisional results of Saturday’s vote that the Central Election Commission announced on Sunday read. Read more.

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TALLINN

Estonia’s Kallas won’t call for snap elections despite opposition victory. A few hours after French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections in France, his Renew Europe colleague Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that her government would not fall as a result of the EU election results and the loss of a key MEP in her Reform Party (RE). Read more.

ROME

Meloni’s star keeps shining; Schlein’s opposition party, PD, grabs top seat of EP’s S&D group. Unlike in other European countries like France, Austria, and Germany, where the sweeping gains of far-right parties shook the grounds of incumbent governments, Italy’s leader Giorgia Meloni remained comfortably in the driver’s seat – with Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) bagging 28.87% of the votes as of 06:15 CET, when over 95% of the ballots had been screened. Read more.

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MADRID

Right-wing wins, PSOE comes close second, as both outperform other parties. The Partido Popular (PP/EPP), the main opposition party, received the most votes, 34.19% of the ballots cast, giving them 22 seats, while the socialist party of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE/S&D) came second with 30.18%, 20 seats, and the far-right VOX party, third with 9.62%, six seats. Read more.

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LISBON

Portugal’s socialists liberals defeat far-right in EU elections. The Portuguese centre-right party (S&D) and the Liberal party (Renew) were the winners of Sunday’s European elections in Portugal, which, unlike most other EU countries, saw the defeat of the far-right Chega party (ID). Read more.

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ATHENS

Greece’s centre-right wins but with heavy losses. Greece’s centre-right ruling New Democracy party (EPP) won the elections but lost more than one million votes compared to the national elections last year, while the opposition could not catch up. Read more.

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VALLETTA

Metsola makes history as Malta Labour Party loses supermajority. Malta’s ruling Labour Party (PL, S&D) is coming to terms with the decimation of its decade-plus-long supermajority, while Nationalist Party (PN, EPP) MEP candidate and incumbent European Parliament President Roberta Metsola makes history. Read more.

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NICOSIA

A Youtuber shakes Cyprus’ political landscape. A 25-year-old independent candidate who became known as an influencer on YouTube and TikTok was the big surprise of the EU elections in Cyprus as he managed to rank third and become elected as an MEP. Read more.

WARSAW

Tusk wins as PiS opposition trails close behind. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO, EPP) scored 37.4% in the European elections in Poland on Sunday the vote, with Law & Justice (PiS, ECR) trailing close behind with 35.7%, meaning both are expected to send 20 MEPs to Brussels. Read more.

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PRAGUE

Controversial far-right coalition comes third in Czech EU elections. In a surprising turn of events, the controversial far-right coalition of Přísaha and Motoristé (Oath and motorists), led by a controversial former race car driver and influencer, made significant gains in Czechia’s European elections on Sunday, securing two seats and emerging as the country’s third party. Read more.

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BUDAPEST

Orbán’s Fidesz faces worst-ever EU election result. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party came out on top in the European elections in Hungary on Sunday, the party’s weakest ever EU election result, as the opposition made gains. Read more.

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BRATISLAVA

Pro-EU liberals triumph over Fico’s Smer in Slovak EU elections. Liberal opposition party Progressive Slovakia (PS/Renew) emerged victorious in the European elections in Slovakia with 27.8% of the vote and six seats, beating Robert Fico’s Smer-SD (NI), initially seen as the frontrunner, which secured 24.8% of the vote and five seats. Read more.

SOFIA

GERB wins EU elections without a clear majority in Bulgaria. The GERB party of former prime minister Boyko Borissov (EPP) won convincingly the country’s early parliamentary elections and the European vote but the country registered its second lowest-ever turnout of 31.8%. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romania sends far-right party to EU Parliament for the first time. Romania is sending far-right politicians to the European Parliament for the first time, but AUR’s lower-than-expected score has mainstream parties in the country breathing a sigh of relief. Read more.

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ZAGREB

Croatia’s ruling conservatives win half of country’s EU Parliament seats. Croatia’s ruling conservative HDZ (EPP) won six of the country’s 12 seats in the European Parliament, according to exit polls published by local media after voting in the EU’s youngest member ended at 7 pm. This is two seats more than in the previous mandate.
The opposition Social Democrats clinched four seats, unchanged from 2019, with two smaller parties scoring one MEP each: Mozemo (‘We can’, Greens) and the Homeland Movement (DP), which plans to join the far-right ID group. (Rajnish Singh)

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LJUBLJANA

EPP dominates Slovenia’s European election. The centre-right SDS (EPP) of former prime minister Janez Janša won the most seats in the European elections, four out of the country’s total of nine, while the ruling Freedom Movement (Renew) of Prime Minister Robert Golob came a distant second with two seats.

Both parties retained the same number of MEPs as in 2019, but Slovenia’s overall number was increased from eight in 2019.

Another EPP-affiliated party, NSI, won one seat, cementing the centre-right’s triumph.

The Social Democrats and Green-affiliated Vesna party won one seat each.

(Zoran Radosavljevic)

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Liene Lūsīte, Alice Taylor]