EU elections projection: Le Pen, Meloni soar as Germany veers left with Wagenknecht

Good morning from Brussels,

While Germany’s new leftist breakaway party led by Sarah Wagenknecht soars with seven seats to the detriment of far-right AfD, Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) and France’s Rassemblement National (ID) are also on the rise according to mid-February’s Europe Elects projections for Euractiv.

Max Griera analyses the impact on Europe’s political landscape if these trends continue ahead of the EU elections in June.

Meanwhile, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will likely announce later today in Berlin her bid for a second term following a meeting of her CDU party.

In her own country, von der Leyen’s green push has made her more popular with political opponents than her own conservative CDU. Her party’s pressure will likely spur a twisted situation in which von der Leyen, as a lead candidate, will have to campaign against her own record as Commission president. Nick Alipour has the story.

INTERVIEW: Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a top contender to be the next NATO chief, told Euractiv’s Alexandra Brzozowski on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that Europeans should focus on ramping up military capabilities and supporting Ukraine instead of worrying about who will be the next US president.

As Rutte urged Europeans to “coordinate better” to scale up the European defence industry, an EU official told Euractiv that the EU’s new defence programme would “push the member states to do more and better together as Europeans”, from research to procurement of all types of equipment, as well as becoming more independent from other suppliers such as the US.

Meanwhile, von der Leyen said on Saturday that should she secure a second term, she would create an EU defence commissioner post.

The push for an EU defence commissioner was reflected in the manifesto of von der Leyen’s European People’s Party, first published by Euractiv last month.

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BERLIN

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz allegedly opposed the idea of incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen running for NATO’s secretary-general post, according to German media. Read more.

Former German spy chief founds new right-wing party. A former German spy chief who was sacked after being accused of averting his eyes to the threat posed by the far-right founded a new right-wing party on Saturday, hels an inaugural party congress on a boat near Germany’s old capital Bonn. Read more.

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PARIS

Former EU border agency chief joins France’s far-right RN. The former director of the EU border agency Frontex, Fabrice Leggeri, announced Saturday he had joined France’s far-right National Rally (RN). Read more.

VILNIUS

Lithuania’s incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda is standing for re-election on 12 May, and the latest poll puts him well ahead of potential challengers with 30% support, while the runner-up, Christian Democrat Ignas Vegele, is polling at 16%. Read more.

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COPENHAGEN

Denmark will send its ‘entire artillery’ to Ukraine. Denmark will send its entire stock of ammunition to Kyiv, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced, becoming the first to do so and appealing to other European nations to do more to help Ukraine. Read more.

ROME

Italian politics mourns Navalny after Salvini’s Lega first refused to point fingers. Italy’s political parties will participate in a procession in memory of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, who was reported dead on Saturday, though Matteo Salvini’s Lega, known for its pro-Putin tendencies, first responded to the news by saying it did not want to “point any fingers”. Read more.

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MADRID

Spanish government to meet opposition in Brussels to unblock top legal body. Spanish Justice Minister Félix Bolaños (PSOE/S&D) and Partido Popular’s Vice-Secretary for Institutional Action, Esteban González Pons, will meet again in Brussels on Monday with EU Justice Commissioner and mediator Didier Reynders, to try to broker the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ), Spain’s highest judicial body, which has been operating on an interim basis for more than five years. Read more.

WARSAW

Polish FM Sikorski floated as a potential EU defence commissioner as agri commissioner faces critique. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski is being floated as a possible candidate to head the new EU Defence Commissioner portfolio, while Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski faces troubled waters amid ongoing bloc-wide farmers’ protests. Read more.

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PRAGUE

Czechia could send 800,000 ammunition units to Ukraine if funding secured. The Czech Defence Ministry and local industry have identified 800,000 units of available ammunition that could be delivered to Ukraine within weeks, Czech President Petr Pavel announced on Saturday, with Defence Minister Jana Černochová adding that the deal would only go ahead if funding were secured. Read more.

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BUDAPEST

In unusual move, China offers to back Hungary in security matters. China offered to support long-time strategic partner Hungary on public security issues, going beyond trade and investment relations, during a rare meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, just as NATO struggles to expand its network in Europe. Read more.

ZAGREB

Croat opposition demands election as thousands rally at anti-government protests. Thousands gathered in the centre of Zagreb on Saturday to join a protest organised by left-wing and centrist parliamentary parties, both opposing the policies of ruling HDZ leader and Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and calling for early parliamentary elections. Read more.

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BELGRADE

Serbia’s Vučić presents anti-drone system acquired from Russia. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić unveiled the Repellent anti-drone system, acquired from Russia, on Statehood Day, adding that combat vehicles and infantry equipment had also been purchased and would be incorporated into the Serbian Armed Forces’ arsenal. Read more.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Zoran Radosavljevic, Alice Taylor, Sofia Stuart Leeson]