EU Politics Decoded - Old coalitions die hard

By Magnus Lund Nielsen

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In today’s edition

As the denouement of an otherwise dull season of confirmation hearings, Teresa Ribera’s session was eagerly anticipated as a possible source of drama – or whatever the Brussels equivalent is.

To an extent, it did deliver. Lawmakers from the right side of the hemicycle used just about every speaking slot to attack the current Spanish socialist minister for what they see as her involvement in a mishandled response to catastrophic floods in Valencia.

On her part, Ribera did not do herself many favours throughout. Although questions on the floods were testy – and often based on a dubious understanding of where Ribera’s responsibility ends and that of the Valencian regional leader, the Partido Popular’s Carlos Mazón (EPP), begins – Ribera never seized her moment.

Over the three-hour long hearing, Ribera had plenty of chances to lay out her visions on competition, climate or any of the other policy areas that fall under her portfolio – but rarely did.

And then things got heated. Coming out of the hearing, EPP lawmakers were vocally unimpressed.

“Before today, I thought we would be able to find a solution (with Ribera)” Peter Liese, who shepherds EPP members in the Parliament’s environment committee, told journalists late on Tuesday evening (12 November).

Still, there was little reason to suspect a major escalation would follow. Given the bigger picture for the EU in light of world events, a sub-par hearing performance by Ribera and a Spanish domestic spat should not have been significant enough to prevent the Commission being rubber-stamped as widely expected.

But Spanish conservatives chose to hijack a plenary debate on Wednesday, dedicated to the more than 200 victims the floods, to throw the kitchen sink at Ribera. Progressives retaliated by threatening to block Italy’s Rafaelle Fitto (ECR) and Hungary’s far-right Olivér Vàrhelyi (PfE).

Now, the EPP and S&D have now talked themselves high up into their respective trees. A climbdown by either will require delicate political management.

In search of the right majority, not the right majority

Spain’s Partido Popular stirred up a wave of resistance within their EPP against the Ribera, and the rest of the group went with it. They may not have needed much convincing, of course – while they may hold no great antipathy to Ribera, they certainly see the benefits of pressuring the S&D to drop its ultimatums against right-wing nominees.

But the upping of the ante by both groups puts the delicate balance initially found in von der Leyen’s proposed College in jeopardy.

Euractiv understands any decision on the future of Ribera and the other EVPs has been delayed until next week. “I think it’s good that everyone gets a moment to catch their breath” as one MEP put it.

In the meantime, von der Leyen is playing mediator. At least three times this week, the Commission President has met with the parliamentary leaders of the coalition that saw her through her first mandate – the liberal Renew Europe, the S&D and her centre-right EPP.

Von der Leyen’s heavy involvement is telling of two things. First of all, that von der Leyen is not convinced that the Parliament is able to pull their chestnuts out of the fire without her lending a helping hand. If the Commission falls all together, her second term possibly falls with it.

Secondly, she realises that she needs her new commission to pass with a pro-European majority.

For all the talk of using the Venezuela Majority, much of the far-right is unlikely to easily support von der Leyen. Parts of the Patriots for Europe group, the Parliament’s third largest, do not believe a European Commission should exist at all.

And even if the maths did work, teaming up with the far-right would cement the EPP’s rightward tilt – with unpalatable repercussions in national politics.

In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk would have a hard time explaining his constituents why his centre-right Civic Platform-party (EPP) had collaborated with the archenemy PiS (ECR).

Similarly, the EPP abandoning its pro-European alliance could sour relations between Germany’s CDU (EPP) and current Chancellor Scholz’s SPD (S&D), who are expected to form a coalition government after elections in February 2025.

"Politically, VDL (von der Leyen) cannot afford getting her Commission elected by a right-wing majority", as an EPP source said, adding both the EPP and S&D took the situation to the edge, "creating unnecessary chaos".

Race to Strasbourg

Despite events this week, it is worth noting that the EPP still wants to see a new Commission sworn in sooner rather than later.

Because for the EPP’s monopolistic grip on the EU’s legislative and executive branches to manifest, they need a Commission up and running. Until then, the EU machine is stalling.

Between now and early next week, and with von der Leyen’s continued input, tensions will likely cool and compromises probably emerge. From there, for a new Commission to take office in early December, all individual commissioners would need to be cleared before the end of next week.

The collective Commission can be voted through by Parliament in Strasbourg the week after. If it makes it there, few expect that vote to pose trouble.

Before that, though, the EPP and S&D must both be offered sizeable fig leaves in order to drop their protests, and placating both groups is not straightforward. For von der Leyen, that means there may be a toll to pay on the road to Strasbourg.

STOP THE COUNT: Unpredictability prevailed once again in the European Parliament on Thursday morning during a vote on changes to the EU's anti-deforestation regulation, when new voting machines failed several lawmakers.

Although some amendments were decided by only a handful of votes, Parliament President Roberta Metsola refused to redo the votes.

Bernd Lange, Chair of the Parliament’s committee on international trade (INTA) did not mince words on social media: “This is not over yet.”

Renew between a socialist rock and conservative hard place: A little considered consequence of the failing EPP-S&D axis would be the demise of the liberal Renew Europe’s clout in Parliament. Although relations have always been frictional, liberals have largely enjoyed, and benefitted from, being stuck in the middle. But without a gap to bridge between the Parliament’s largest groupings, Renew would have little to use their 77 seats for.

Hence, group leader Valérie Hayer was eager to calm tensions. "We denounce and regret the irresponsible acting of all political forces not contributing to a responsible and valuable and real liable solution," she told journalists on Wednesday (November 13).

Telling of the quagmire Renew finds itself in, the group was almost perfectly split down the middle on today’s vote on the deforestation regulation.

AfD asking the real questions: During Ribera’s hearing, Germany’s Anja Arndt of Parliament’s fringe far-right group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, was keen to know why the commissioner-designate was so hung up on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Ribera’s response, pointing to the science, received near-unanimous applause from MEPs. It was just about the only thing that managed to unite the pro- and anti-Ribera factions all week.