EU Politics Decoded - Planet America drifts further away as EU Parliament hobnobs new executive

By Magnus Lund Nielsen

Dear readers,

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In today’s edition

Much of Europe has been cross-eyed this week, trying to follow both the EU's and the US’s attempts to decide on their executive.

As pointed out by Euro-American journalist Dave Keating, there is little to comfort the overwhelmingly Harris-positive Europeans after Tuesday's US elections.

In 2016, it was easy to come up with excuses for the US having elected Donald Trump to his first term. Prominent among them: ‘Hillary Clinton was a historically unpopular candidate’, ‘she ran a poor campaign’, and ‘she only lost because of the electoral college’, having received almost three million more votes than Trump.

Clearly, Trump could not have been the choice of the average American, Europeans thought.

This election, on the other hand, was a sobering experience.

With eyes wide open, American voters went with a candidate whose policies - and criminal record - are well known. Europeans are struggling to produce the same excuses this time around.

And so, well before the final results were in, European leaders were quicker than quick to extend congratulations to the new president-elect.

MEPs grilling but never turning up the heat

For their part, European parliamentarians have been making good use of the US elections filling the airwaves across the continent. With eyes understandably elsewhere, commissioners-designate are being approved with as little drama as many lawmakers had hoped.

Most confirmation hearings so far have been very low-stakes affairs, with MEPs throwing plenty of softball questions. Where questions have been more pointed, candidates have largely dealt with them calmly and coolly.

Talking to parliamentary sources this week, EU Politics Decoded has learnt that a handful of candidates still failed to impress lawmakers despite their relatively smooth hearings – though no candidate has yet been rejected.

When MEPs met to evaluate the hearing of Dan Jørgensen, who is set to oversee the Union’s energy and housing policy, right-wing ECR representatives didn’t mince their words in expressing criticism. Yet, when it came down to a vote, the ECR backed the Dane.

So, aside from a deal to get Belgium’s Hadja Lahbib (Renew) and Sweden’s Jessika Roswall (EPP) through, and President von der Leyen helping along the approval of Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi, the much-anticipated hearings have been fairly undramatic.

That said, commissioner hearings are arguably more crucial for European democracy than the US elections are for theirs – at least in terms of how long we have to wait to exercise our democratic right.

American voters get to reassess their legislative branch – and by extension offer their thoughts on the executive – every two years in midterm elections, next due in 2026.

But European voters will have to wait five years for a similar chance. Until then, we’re stuck with the leaders MEPs appear in a hurry to approve.

Super Tuesday Showdown

It will not be lost on fellow US politics lovers that the EU is going into its very own ‘Super Tuesday’ next week. All six of the executive vice-presidents-to-be will face MEPs on a single day, and tensions could rise.

We could see more sable-rattling and no blood. But one nominee’s poor showing could also catalyse a larger re-shuffle, or even the whole Commission to fall.

French socialist lawmakers have threatened to pull the rug away under any Commission that includes Italy’s Rafaelle Fitto (ECR) in a ranking role.

Meanwhile, EPP lawmakers are expected to pressure Spain’s Teresa Ribera (S&D) for her government's handling of the recent devastating floods in Valencia.

As was the case with Lahbib and Roswall this week, the evaluation of each of the EVPs could be postponed until they have all had their turn in the chair.

But either way, commissioners-designates and parliamentarians alike will be holding their breath going into the last stretch of hearings.

Once all cleared, the collective Commission will be put to a vote in front of the entire EU Parliament, possibly in late November.

Patriot politics 101: Normal political courtesy would dictate some sort of quid pro quo. But the Parliament’s third largest grouping, the far-right Patriots for Europe, seem to spare little thought of their own stake in the commissioner hearing game, as they have voted against the vast majority of nominees so far.

Fidesz, a founding member of the group, have their own candidate on the line. At the time of writing, Olivér Várhelyi’s political fate is still hanging in the balance having failed to convince lawmakers.

High-level huddle: On Wednesday evening (6 November), political leaders Valerie Hayer (Renew Europe), Iratxe García Pérez (S&D) and Manfred Weber (EPP) met with Commission President Ursual von der Leyen. On the agenda was – à propos – Várhelyi’s pending approval, the Lahbib-Roswall backroom deal, and an upcoming upgrade of the Parliament’s defence and health committees.

Irish elections: In a time where diaspora votes have come in clutch more than once, most recently in the Moldovan presidential elections, Ireland does not let nationals abroad vote in its elections – which are set to be called for late November. Around 1.5 million Irish nationals live abroad - many of them in the US, but plenty in other EU countries.