Military strategists have long dreamed of decisive, rapid victories, and in recent decades, they have often expected technological superiority and overwhelming force to produce such results. Yet in conflicts in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza, forces conducting surprise offensives “have shown how difficult it is to bring a war to an early and satisfactory conclusion,” argues the military historian Lawrence Freedman in a new essay from the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs.
The prevalence of “forever wars” in the contemporary era calls for a fundamental shift in military thinking, Freedman argues. “Great powers tend to assume that their significant military superiority will quickly overwhelm opponents,” he notes. “This overconfidence means that they fail to appreciate the limits of military power and so set objectives that can be achieved, if at all, only through a prolonged struggle.” Military strategy, in other words, must be paired with clear and limited political purpose. “One of the great allures of military power is that it promises to bring conflicts to a quick and decisive conclusion,” he writes. “In practice, it rarely does.”
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