Existing Home Inventory UP Year-Over-Year For The First Time in 3 Years

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that June saw the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Existing Home Sales today. The annual pace of sales came in at 5.12 million, well short of the consensus (5.38m) and 5.4% lower than May's 5.41m reading. In the grand scheme of things, sales were already back in line with pre-pandemic levels over the last 2 months. Today's release leaves them near the lower end of the range seen from 2015-2019, but sharply lower from the post-covid peaks around 6.5m. One major gripe about home sales (and one major explanation for an epic surge in home values) over the past two years is the broad notion of "inventory." In other words, there weren't enough homes on the market to match the level of demand. Even now, inventory levels remain historically low. That was a problem that was only getting worst until the first part of 2021 when rates began to move noticeably higher from all-time lows. Since then, inventory was still shrinking in year over year terms, but by smaller and smaller amounts. Today's report is significant because it's the first time since mid 2019 that inventory has increased year-over-year. The following charts from Redfin's market data center show other ways to visualize the same phenomenon. The first is the outright level of active listings in markets it covers. Notice the black line (2022) overtaking the orange line (2021), but still very low compared to the 2019 and 2020

July 20, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Existing Home Inventory UP Year-Over-Year For The First Time in 3 Years The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that June saw the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Existing Home Sales today. The annual pace of sales came in at 5.12 million, well short of the consensus (5.38m) and 5.4% lower than May's ... (read more) Housing News Normal Contraction Patterns Leave Mortgage Apps at 22 Year Low The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said today that its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell again during the week ended July 15. The Index declined 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis but was 17 perce... (read more) Rob Chrisman Subservicing, Convenience Fee Compliance, VOE, POS Products; Non-Agency/Non-QM News “Having plans sounds like a good idea until you have to put on clothes and leave the house.” Capital markets teams have plans, and STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “Capital Markets: Protecting Margins and Assets.” At the other end of the mortgage f... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Fairly Flat So Far This Week 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.71% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 4.97% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.25% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.84% +0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.44% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.30% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/20 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.97% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.08 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 4.88% -0.05 0.76 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.31% +0.06 0.38 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/20 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 99.89 -0.17 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 99.89 -0.17 UMBS 5.0 101.22 -0.19 GNMA 4.5 100.45 -0.08 GNMA 5.0 101.45 -0.88 Pricing as of: 7/20 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.0247 -0.0037 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.236 -0.006 5 YR Treasury 3.162 +0.002 7 YR Treasury 3.141 +0.005 10 YR Treasury 3.025 -0.004 30 YR Treasury 3.161 -0.022 Pricing as of: 7/20 5:21PM EST Latest Video Mortgage demand hits a 22-year low on high rates and inflation concerns The 2pm Bond Report - July 20, 2022 Housing market continues cooldown as new home construction drops The 9am Bond Report - July 20, 2022 Around the Web Freddie Mac Freddie Mac: Market Slowdown will Continue as High Rates and Prices Exacerbate Affordability Challenges CNBC Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers CNBC June home sales fall 5.4% from May, as prices set yet another record Realtor.com Im the Chief Economist at Realtor.com. These Are the 4 Things You Need To Know About the Housing Market Now CNBC Americans are changing jobs less frequently and it's hurting wage growth in the U.S. Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Fall to Two-Year Low on Higher Construction Costs and Interest Rates Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows "increasing demand" in June Reuters Oil prices rise on tight supply worries, soft dollar supports Wall Street Journal ECB Being Pulled in Multiple Directions as It Preps First Rate Rise in Decade CNBC Treasury yields nudge higher, 2-year/10-year curve remains inverted Reuters ECB policymakers to discuss 50 bp rate hike this week, sources say CNBC UK inflation hits new 40-year high of 9.4% as cost-of-living crisis deepens CNBC Treasury yields dip slightly as risk sentiment remains volatile

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