Existing Home Sales Lowest in 12 Years, But It Could Be Worse

Existing home sales data was released this morning by the National Association of Realtors for the month of January. It was fairly close to forecasts, but nonetheless slid to the lowest levels since 2011 for the second straight month (just edging out the initial lockdown lows of 2020). It's no surprise to see sharp declines in sales given the massive shift in rates and housing sentiment that unfolded over the course of 2022. While there had been a glimmer of hope for a bounce over the past few months, rates are once again ripping up toward 7%. As such, it makes sense to ask: how bad is it? We can all already see how bad it CURRENTLY is. So the better question is how bad could things get. Alternatively, we could ask when things will get better. The second question is easy, but the answer isn't a huge relief in the short term. Things will get better when inflation is firmly under control and the economy stops periodically showing signs of "running hot." Yes, I know that the idea of an economy "running hot" seems like a crazy thing to entertain for those of us in the housing/mortgage market, but in many sectors, it's a thing. Recent data confirms as much, as seen in the jobs report earlier this month and several reports since then. On the topic of "how bad could things get," the good news is that the set-up could be a lot worse. Yes, the rate spike has been onerous, but let's not forget that the housing market was overheated in terms of prices. Even now, median prices remain far above the trend established over the past decade and still clocked year-over-year gains in January.

February 21, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Existing Home Sales Lowest in 12 Years, But It Could Be Worse Existing home sales data was released this morning by the National Association of Realtors for the month of January. It was fairly close to forecasts, but nonetheless slid to the lowest levels since 2011 for the second straight month (just edgi... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Surging Back Toward 7% On November 9th, 2022, the average lender was quoting 30yr fixed rates well over 7%. On day later, that figure dropped to 6.625%. It was one of the best individual days for rates on record and it was driven by an economic report that show... (read more) MBS Commentary Data Fuels Ongoing Scramble Toward Higher Rates Data Fuels Ongoing Scramble Toward Higher Rates Almost the entire month of February has been a mad dash from the lowest rates in months to the highest rates in months. The whole ordeal can be traced bac... (read more) Rob Chrisman Servicing, Marketing, DSCR, Correspondent Tools; STRATMOR on Customer Service; RESPA Loan Comparison Sites Not every house is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, single story subdivision home. Appraisers and underwriters aren’t big fans of places that aren’t, due to the lack of comps or the problems in “salability” should something go wrong. Inventive housing? Watch thi... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.87% +0.07% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.10 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.65% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.25% +0.13 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/21 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.07% +0.12% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% +0.20 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.51% +0.26 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/16 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.39% +0.21 0.70 15 Yr. Fixed 5.85% +0.21 0.81 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.26% +0.30 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/15 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 97.89 -0.89 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 97.89 -0.89 UMBS 5.5 99.55 -0.69 GNMA 5.0 98.30 -0.97 GNMA 5.5 99.83 -0.77 Pricing as of: 2/21 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.9584 +0.1374 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.727 +0.106 5 YR Treasury 4.176 +0.143 7 YR Treasury 4.095 +0.152 10 YR Treasury 3.958 +0.137 30 YR Treasury 3.975 +0.106 Pricing as of: 2/21 5:31PM EST Latest Video We're in a housing reset after years of unprecedented low rates, says Taylo... The market finally recognizes inflation is not going away, says David Ruben... The 2pm Bond Report — Feb. 21, 2023 Preliminary manufacturing PMI beats expectations; best read since Oct. '22 Around the Web CNBC Wall Street has purchased hundreds of thousands single-family homes since the Great Recession. Here's what that means for rental prices Eye on Housing Additional Declines for New Home Size Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: "US Annual Rent Price Growth Dropped by Nearly Half in December" CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors look to key economic data, Fed minutes Calculated Risk Blog The Normal Seasonal Changes for Median House Prices Eye on Housing Market Share of All-Cash New Home Sales Hits 32-Year High Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 13% YoY Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January Eye on Housing Townhouse Construction Share Climbs to Near Four-Decade High CNBC European markets set to open lower with Fed in focus Wall Street Journal Fed's Barkin Supports Measured Pace of Interest-Rate Increases Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 1.5% Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

© 2023 Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: newsletter@newslettercollector.com. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.