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| Tuesday, August 15, 2023 |
| One of the biggest storylines hanging over the past few weeks has been the presence of former star running backs like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt on the free agent market as the preseason kicked off. They've been taking high-profile visits all over the place, but it felt like there was a league-wide game of chicken going on, where everyone was waiting for one of them to break the seal and finally sign. |
| That happened Monday, first with Ezekiel Elliott agreeing to a deal with the Patriots, and then with Dalvin Cook finally agreeing to join the Jets. Today's newsletter was going to be about the biggest ADP risers and fallers, and we'll still get there, but first some quick thoughts on Elliott, Cook, and what their signings mean for Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall. |
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Ezekiel Elliott to the Patriots
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| I've got a whole breakdown of the signing on CBSSports.com, which you can read here. But, if you're short on time, here are my quick thoughts: |
| Impact for Rhamondre Stevenson: In theory, signing Elliott to handle some of the low-value, between-the-tackles work wouldn't be a bad thing for Stevenson, who could still be the goal-line and passing downs back while potentially taking on less injury risk. The problem is, while Elliott is far removed from the days when he was legitimately one of the best running backs in the league, he was still a very good short-yardage back last season. Stevenson is still a viable third-round option for me, especially toward the latter half of the round if I want an RB, but I prefer him in the fourth round if I can get him there. That probably represents a drop of about a round from where he's been going in ADP lately, which seems reasonable enough to me. Impact for Ezekiel Elliott: He's probably just a role player on what we expect to be a mediocre offense. I'll take Elliott after 45 or 50 or so backs are off the board, but I'd be surprised if he was ever much more than a touchdown-or-bust option. Impact for Tony Pollard: The biggest winner of Ezekiel Elliott's decision to sign with the Patriots, as reported by numerous outlets Monday? Probably Pollard. Elliott is coming off a 12-touchdown final season with the Cowboys in 2022, and as long as he lingered on the free-agent market, there was a chance the Cowboys would bring him back as a short-yardage/between-the-tackles complement to Pollard. Now? Well, I don't think every single one of those nine touchdowns Elliott scored from 4 yards and in will go to Pollard, but his chances of getting vultured consistently just went down, at the very least. He's locked in as a top-15 pick. |
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| Dalvin Cook to the Jets |
| Also on CBSSports.com, our editor R.J. White collected thoughts from the FFT team on how Cook's signing impacts the RB landscape. Here's what I had to say: |
| "Hall will likely be brought along slowly for the start of the season, so don't draft him expecting him to be your RB2 right away. But he should get there before long, and there's still RB1 upside once he's 100% if this offense is as good as we think it could be. Cook is likely to be the better option early in the season, and should be a decent starting option for much of the season. It's possible he has more left in the tank than we saw last season and ends up holding Hall back all season long, but I'd bet on the young guy who looked like an elite playmaker in both facets of the game a year ago. Let's call Hall a fifth-round pick, and Cook more like a seventh-rounder." |
| For more, check out Fantasy Football Today, where we discussed both the Elliott signing and Cook signing Monday. |
| And now, let's see which players are rising and falling in drafts lately: |
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| Biggest ADP Risers and Fallers |
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| Biggest ADP risers |
| On Monday, Jamey Eisenberg did his latest ADP Review piece, looking at where players at each position are being drafted in CBS Fantasy leagues right now. That's a weekly column, and Jamey will be following trends on our site all preseason, so make sure you keep an eye out for that. |
| I'm doing things a bit differently here. Over at the National Fantasy Football Championship site, you can sort ADP by time period, which makes it easy to look at trends in their high-stakes leagues. I took their ADP data from the last two weeks of July and compared it to the first two weeks of August, and then sorted by the biggest risers and fallers over that time period. |
| Here's who's moving up in drafts lately: |
| Dalton Kincaid, BUF, TE – 144.45 -> 125.31 |
| We're starting to see the helium here, as Kincaid has garnered positive reports in camp and looks like he's going to be a starter one way or another here. He's a fine late-round gamble, but I'd be out if he gets much more expensive than this. |
| James Cook, BUF, RB – 80.92 -> 69.99 |
| I don't really buy that there is a ton of upside to be found in this Bills backfield – Cook probably needs 65% of the RB work to be an RB2 here – but by all accounts, Cook has clearly separated himself from the backups in Buffalo. I won't draft him here, but I can squint and see the case for it. |
| Zay Flowers, BAL, WR – 109.39 -> 99.04 |
| With Rashod Bateman cleared to practice last week, this is probably the high-water mark for Flowers' price. That's not to say he's a bad pick, but between those two and Odell Beckham, they're competing to be the No. 2 in what will likely still be a low-volume pass offense. A fine dice roll around 100th, but I prefer Bateman (118.4) or Beckham (118.7) at cost. |
| Romeo Doubs, GB, WR – 124.25 -> 116.58 |
| Christian Watson is the higher-upside guy to target, but Doubs is a clear top-two option in the Packers passing game and comes with a much cheaper price. He's a top-105 pick for me. |
| Tank Bigsby, JAX, RB – 138.72 -> 131.23 |
| The first preseason game made clear that Bigsby is viewed as a complementary piece to Travis Etienne , not a real competitor right now. I think that'll slow some of the hype, but even with that, getting him outside of the first 10 rounds is probably a win for the contingent value he brings if anything happens to Etienne. |
| George Pickens, PIT, WR – 78.81 -> 71.72 |
| Pickens catch-and-run touchdown in the first preseason probably isn't going to slow his rise in ADP. The gap between Pickens and Diontae Johnson's (61.5) cost is shrinking, but I still clearly prefer Johnson, who dominated targets in that preseason drive with Kenny Pickett, despite Pickens' score. |
| Rashee Rice, KC, WR – 155.45 -> 148.43 |
| I think it's probably pretty unlikely Rice makes much of an impact as a rookie, but given the uncertainty around the Chiefs WR depth chart, I'm perfectly fine with taking a last-round flier on him, especially after he earned a few snaps with the starters ahead of the likes of Richie James and Justyn Ross. |
| Darren Waller, NYG, TE – 70.99 -> 64.13 |
| Nearly everything out of Giants camp has been positive for Waller, who has established himself as the team's clear top target by all accounts. I haven't drafted him much yet, but I actually have him ranked higher than his new, more expensive ADP. |
| Calvin Ridley, JAX, WR – 39.27 -> 32.66 |
| It's worth Zooming out to see how much Ridley has risen through the offseason. In May, his ADP was 49.2; in June, it was 44.6; in July, it was 41.7; in August, it is 32.6. I don't mind his current price – he's my No. 36-ranked player – but I just don't see much reason for his price to continue to rise. We've gotten good reports out of camp, but I just don't think that's enough to justify what has been a full-round jump in price just in the past month. |
| Michael Thomas, NO, WR – 103.36 -> 96.78 |
| Thomas is currently healthy and just played every snap with Derek Carr and the starters in the preseason opener, so I don't mind his price continuing to increase. He's a top-90 pick for me, and someone I've drafted quite a lot of lately. |
| Biggest ADP Fallers |
| And here's who is moving in the wrong direction, starting with one player whose value is obviously going to change quite a bit moving forward. |
| Dalvin Cook, MIN, RB – 66.87 -> 81.59 |
| Cook was always going to sign somewhere , but the fact that he had taken multiple visits and hadn't signed yet might have been a sign that there wasn't a ton of enthusiasm about him on the market. Now that we know where he's playing, I expect his slide to stop, but I'm not sure I'd move him into the top five rounds, necessarily. He'll likely open the season as the Jets lead back while Hall works his way back to 100%, but I do think Hall is the better player at this point in their careers, and should emerge as the No. 1 at some point. Cook could be a useful RB2 to open the season, but I'm expecting him to be a pretty frustrating player to rely on as the season goes on. If I'm wrong and he remains the clear top option all season, he could be a steal even at a fifth-round price if this offense takes a big step forward. |
| Dak Prescott, DAL, QB – 93.39 -> 102.18 |
| There seems to be a bit of a market correction happening with quarterbacks of late, with only three of the top 20 in ADP at the position seeing their ADP rise in the period we're talking about. That's not totally unexpected, given how inflated QB prices have been this offseason, but it does mean that we probably shouldn't focus too much on the quarterbacks whose prices are falling. I've removed them from the rest of the list, for what it's worth. |
| J.K. Dobbins, BAL, RB – 60.03 -> 68.24 |
| Dobbins was activated from the PUP list Monday and practiced for the first time this offseason, so I'd expect that decline to reverse. I'm hopeful that Dobbins will finally get a more consistent workload this season with a new offensive coordinator in place, but I think his current price is probably fair. I'll likely move him up in my next rankings update, but probably not inside the top 50 overall. |
| Damien Harris, BUF, RB – 116.32 -> 124.4 |
| Harris has been dealing with an injury recently in camp, and it sounds like Latavius Murray is a real threat to his standing as the No. 2 RB here. It's unlikely Harris was going to have much value as long as Cook was active, but I thought he might at least have a short-yardage role. Now, even that is in jeopardy. |
| Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB – 16.7 -> 23.43 |
| I think this one is probably an overreaction. I don't really have much concern about Taylor not playing for the Colts as long as he's healthy, and my guess is his ankle would be feeling a lot better with a new contract. This staring contest may linger into the start of the regular season, but I'm betting it won't. He's still a top-20 player for me, and as soon as he's cleared to play will probably be a top-10 guy again. |
| Dalton Schultz, HOU, TE – 122.97 -> 128.76 |
| We're seeing some similar movement at tight end as we are at QB, though it's not as pronounced across the position. Schultz dropping doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to me, but he's going so late that I don't really think there's much to take from it. He feels like a relatively high-floor, low-ceiling TE option, a good one to pair with someone like Kincaid or Sam LaPorta. |
| Adam Thielen, CAR, WR – 145.32 -> 150.33 |
| I'm actually warming up to the idea of Thielen having some PPR value in Carolina. He was playing almost exclusively out of the slot in the first preseason game in three-WR sets, and I could see him having some appeal as a low-end starter with volume in that role. Jonathan Mingo is the most interesting WR in Carolina for the mystery box appeal, but Thielen could be a boring, reliable option with your last pick. |
| Tyler Higbee, LA, TE – 138.27 -> 143.24 |
| Like Schultz, Higbee seems locked into a role that should give him a relatively high floor, though as we saw last season, a lack of competition on offense isn't a guarantee that he'll be consistently productive. I prefer Schultz, but Higbee fits a similar niche from a team-building perspective. |
| Kadarius Toney, KC, WR – 91.7 -> 96.04 |
| This one is all about injury, as Toney has another knee issue that is keeping him out for training camp. The Chiefs expect to have Toney back for Week 1, but given how little he's played, I don't expect him to just step back into the starting lineup. There's a non-zero chance that Toney ends up as an anchor on your roster; someone with too much potential to cut, but who never actually turns into a viable starting option. He's a fine dice roll around 100 overall, but my expectations are, admittedly, quite low. |
| Kenneth Walker, SEA, RB – 50.0 -> 54.3 |
| Another one sliding because of injury. The good news is, Walker was back out there for individual drills over the weekend and seems like he'll be fully ready to go for the start of the season. It's not ideal that he missed a few weeks in camp while Zach Charbonnet got reps with the first-team offense, but I don't think it's enough to seriously impact Walker's usage. There's risk here that Charbonnet does eat into some of the high-value touches in this offense, but Walker probably belongs inside of the first four rounds in drafts. |
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