Christian McCaffrey is still in consideration in Round 1 of Fantasy football drafts even after the 2024 season. Running backs who are involved as pass-catchers are cheat codes for Fantasy football. We know this.

Along with McCaffrey, De'Von Achane is one of the first running backs to leave draft boards. Either back could break Fantasy if their receiving work meets even a median outcome in terms of health and rushing production. The same could be said for Bucky Irving, depending on how much of the 2024 screen usage sticks with Liam Coen leaving and Josh Grizzard stepping into the offensive coordinator vacancy. (I'm optimistic that Grizzard will be a competent replacement!)

Those three are premium Fantasy football picks, and receiving has a lot to do with it.

I've written some version of this "RB Targets = Winning" article for Fantasy for the past five-ish years, and during that time, I've seen RB targets dip precipitously. Even with the move to a 17-game season, the NFL simply is not producing nearly as much RB receiving as in years past.

Achane was able to put up nearly 300 PPR points even with just 907 yards and 6 touchdowns coming on the ground. It was a season from hell for the Dolphins, and Achane's rushing efficiency plummeted as a result. And still, he was able to outproduce Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Kyren Williams even as they compiled monster rushing production.

That's because RB targets are cheat codes. Targets are worth way more than rush attempts in Fantasy football.

If looking for 300+ PPR points at the RB position and not drafting Derrick Henry, then target upside feels like a near necessity. Or, that's the way that it has felt.

Are these types of legendary target upside seasons even still available at the RB position in the modern NFL? The Alvin Kamara/Austin Ekeler/CMC era is nearing its end -- Kamara hasn't topped 90 targets since 2020. Achane was force-fed targets with Miami's run-game stalling out in the early stages of the season and still finished below the 90-target mark in 17 games played. With the run game working better to close out the season, Achane only saw two total targets in his final two games.

The 2024 season produced four (five if you count Achane's 299.6) RB totals of 300+ PPR points (more than any other season over the past 10 years), but the target totals for those backs -- Achane (87), Bijan Robinson (72), Jahmyr Gibbs (63), Saquon Barkley (43), and Henry (22) -- were far from legendary. The times might be changing!

Pass attempts per game was the lowest its been since 2008. League-wide completion percentage was the highest it has ever been. Interception rates were also the best ever recorded (tied with 2020).

Passing isn't down, in terms of effectiveness. Quarterback play certainly isn't worse.

Offenses are passing less, though. In 2020, the league-wide first down pass rate was 50%. By 2024, first down pass rate had dropped to 46%, the lowest rate since 2006.

Pounding the rock has become the new meta, and with that resulting in a beatdown on the biggest stage in the 2024 Super Bowl, we probably won't see the league shifting away from bully-ball anytime soon.

The best rushing offenses are forcing defense's hands. The Baltimore Ravens had a historically efficient passing attack in 2024 with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as the top receivers. Defenses were terrified to play two-high safety coverage against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The only offenses that saw a higher opponent single-high rate were the Bills, Eagles, Commanders, and Patriots (woof, get Drake Maye some receivers!). 

Seven of the top-15 seasons since 2020, in terms of EPA per rush, came in 2024. Seven is an insane number! If we assume the top-15 had an equal number of instances from each of those five seasons, then an average expectation would be three teams per year. Four of those seven teams ranked top-six in opponent single-high safety rate. A good run game can dictate how defenses line up and attack.

The NFL is always changing. The 2024 season was dominated by efficient and effective rushing. This shift coincided with the healthiest RB season in recent memory, and so we got some monster Fantasy RB seasons even without the types of target totals that typically prerequisite such performances.

As I consider all of this and look forward, I wonder if the RB position might be in an extremely precarious position for Fantasy purposes.

I compared the past four seasons at the RB position through the lens of the Fantasy Points Data Suite's expected Fantasy point (XFP) model, and there wasn't much that felt distinctive at the top of the position.

The top of the position was actually lagging behind in 2024, likely because of the lack of legendary target upside. We saw XFP level out around RB5/RB6, and from that point on, the 2024 season's running backs outpaced recent seasons. From RB8-RB22, the 2024 season outpaced the rest of the 2020's from an XFP standpoint.

That's an illustration of the unusually healthy season at the position.

Below is a chart comparing the same seasons, but through the lens of snap rates. My data query for this chart only included games where the RB was listed as a starter and started at least 10 games. I then sorted the running backs that fit within that query: "Healthy starting running backs" by their season-long snap rate (only including games started).

The results show something similar to XFP. There weren't more bell cows in 2024, there were simply more starting running backs who remained healthy. If looking at the top of the position, the trends from the past few years were intact.

Healthy running backs played basically the same percentage of offensive snaps in 2024 as in any of the past few years. Let's zoom out and look at snap rates over the past 20 years. The bell cow RB remains on the endangered list:

That's a drastic and quick change! We went from averaging 3-4 running backs per season with a snap rate at or above 80% to just one per season. And I feel even worse about the state of the position after looking at the group of five. 

Kyren Williams twice (once in just a 12-game season), Saquon Barkley three seasons ago, Christian McCaffrey two seasons ago, and Najee Harris is not exactly an inspiring list. We have no idea if CMC's health will return, and Williams feels entirely dependent on Sean McVay's love remaining unconditional through fumbles and declining efficiency. It's quite possible that Barkley is the only remaining bell cow from this list. Maybe Bijan Robinson and/or Ashton Jeanty will join the group. It's just crazy to see how quickly the change has set in. Teams are splitting up reps at RB.

What happens if the position is not extraordinarily healthy in 2025? Last year's huge RB point totals was mostly predicated on outlier health and touchdown production. Both factors can be volatile from year to year.

If teams continue to move towards split backfields, and if legendary RB target upside is fading into just a legend, then we might be a few key injuries away from the RB position seriously lacking top-end upside relative to other positions. It might not even require an injury for some of these players. What if Kyren Williams cedes more work to his backfield mates in 2025? Same question for James Cook, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and Breece Hall.

And what if Saquon Barkley (378 touches in 2024), Bijan Robinson (365), Derrick Henry (344), Josh Jacobs (337), or Jonathan Taylor (321 in 14 games) are forced to miss significant time? I'm not sure if there's a fill-in back for any of those players -- maybe Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta or DJ Giddens in Indy -- most-likely, it'd be a running back by committee approach for any of those backfields if the starter misses time.

In the past, I've written this article with the premise being a pursuit of identifying running backs with legendary target upside. I set up varying target intervals (70, 80, 90, etc) and outlined RBs who might be capable of hitting those marks, and I did so with previous seasons' data as precedence for what it might mean for Fantasy if a running back did achieve such a target total.

Projecting the RB position feels different this year. So I'm approaching the write-up in a more vague way. I hope to provide a holistic view of the position, how targets affect the Fantasy football RB outcome, and how to navigate it.

My best guess is that targeting running backs who could project for target volume if on the field is the best way to approach the RB position if looking for upside bets that might benefit in a big way from injuries or chaos ("unexpected" backfield shifts such as Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, or Tyrone Tracy taking on prominent roles in 2024) at the position.

Here's the set of circumstances that the RB position faces heading into 2025:

1. The position was extraordinarily healthy in 2024

2. The 2025 NFL Draft class was lauded as one of the strongest/deepest RB positional groups in recent years

3. At the top of the position, NFL snap rates (from the past five years) are dropping and remain lower than ever

4. League-wide passing volume continues to drop AND league-wide RB target shares continue to drop

I bring up the second point because any of Joe Mixon, Chase Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, Tyrone Tracy, Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby, or Brian Robinson could see a rookie cut into their workload. It's way too early to have a feel for how those backfields might shake out, but the rookies who landed in each of those spots are very talented! The Dallas backfield looks like a committee potentially involving two rookies. The Bears added an aggressive and violent rookie rusher. The Panthers and Saints probably aren't going to play their rookie RB, but both teams need playmakers on the field! And, of course, there's the Browns. They might start a rookie QB, and the top two running backs on Cleveland's depth chart may both be rookies. Who knows?!

This could be a super messy season when it comes to the RB position. I didn't even mention that Sean Payton and the Broncos have forced us into one of the most uncomfortable rookie RB Fantasy selections in recent memory. So many teams seem to be leaning into piecing the position together.

The 2025 NFL Draft results might epitomize exactly where the league's at with the position -- there's a surplus of talent. Players with elite traits -- TreVeyon Henderson on passing downs, RJ Harvey and Bhayshul Tuten as explosive play creators, Woody Marks as a third-down specialist -- were prioritized. Backs who might have more complete skill sets but lack an elite trait -- Dylan Sampson, DJ Giddens, Ollie Gordon, Devin Neal -- were not prioritized.

It feels very much like a mix-and-match league when it comes to the RB position. I'm not sure if "chasing volume" at the position is the best approach. Almost every backfield feels like it could involve notable role-catering. Will Joe Mixon be the clear lead back in Houston? Probably. I don't know, though! It's a new regime with a new offensive line, maybe Nick Caley will want to change the run scheme. Maybe there's a reason that the Texans traded a 2026 Round 3 pick to move up roughly 60 spots to grab Woody Marks with Jarquez Hunter, Sampson, Giddens all still on the board!

And finally, we have arrived at my point. Undeterred by last year's failures, we press on, prepared to navigate the chaos with a pocket full of backup running backs. I won't stop you from drafting running backs early if you think it's the move. The clearest path to legendary target upside is Christian McCaffrey. The discount brand that costs almost as much but clearly does not hit as hard is Bucky and Achane. Those are the guys that I'd target at the top of the draft if forced to grab an RB. And, of course, feel free to pick the stud workhorse backs. Even if they don't have legendary target upside, any of those backs can operate as an offensive focal point and put up a monster Fantasy season if their rushing usage is paired with 15+ touchdowns. We just saw it with Barkley, Henry, Kyren, Bijan, Gibbs, and James Cook in 2024. Maybe they repeat.

I think that it makes a ton of sense to take as many late-round shots on potential fill-in running backs as possible. And I start that process by attempting to distinguish which late-round backs might offer hypothetical receiving upside if playing a significant role.

As I have navigated getting my Dynasty exposures where I want them and begun prepping for 2025 season long drafts, it feels clear that I'm going to be underweight on most of the top-end running backs. It feels like the highest-upside build for 2025 season-long drafts involves only one or even zero anchor running backs. I feel content placing bets on CMC/Achane/Irving to chase the top RB point totals, and there are a few backs available later who I think could offer similar upside. I want as much access to Brock Bowers and Trey McBride as possible. I want to load up on young stud receivers. And so, I'll be relying on cheat codes at the RB position and hoping for a bit of luck when it comes to chaos.

Top of the range of outcomes for projected targets in 2025:

105 - Christian McCaffrey
88 - Alvin Kamara
88 - RJ Harvey (I know, it's spicy)
86 - De'Von Achane
81 - Breece Hall
80 - TreVeyon Henderson
74 - Travis Etienne (I know, I know. At least give me a moment to explain below)
72 - Chase Brown
70 - Jahmyr Gibbs
70 - Bijan Robinson

Only the Bucs offense produced more "designed targets" for the RB position than the Broncos in 2024, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Per JJ Zachariason on the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, "since 2011, Payton's teams haven't ranked lower than sixth in RB target share in a single season."

The Bo Nix/Sean Payton combination delivered as promised in Year 1, producing more RB checkdowns than any team. That's crazy, right? More than the receiver-less Saints checking down to Alvin Kamara, the Broncos checked down to Javonte Williams and the boys. Denver ranked 28th in yards per checkdown target.

I hate to say it, because I loved UNC Javonte, but we have seen no juice since he returned. If the Payton RB target gimmick held true even with last year's RB room, then this is as clear-cut as predicting anything when it comes to football. There will almost certainly be a big target total for Denver's backfield. Harvey is electric with the ball in his hands. We could even see some of Marvin Mims' usage from last year shift over to Harvey. Mims was used in the backfield a lot, and his targets aren't even factoring into Denver's league-leading RB target totals.

Harvey feels like a perfect fit for what Payton likes to do with his run scheme. If Payton can get him the ball in space as a receiver , then Harvey could end up being one of the best Fantasy backs in the game. Javonte Williams was the RB16 in the Fantasy Points Data's expected Fantasy points model in 2023. He was the RB9 in XFP through eight weeks in 2024 before being benched. Williams was hardly capable of capitalizing on the opportunity in Denver, but Harvey very well might be.

TreVeyon Henderson is currently being selected in the same range as Harvey. We'll spend time discussing him in a moment. For season-long leagues, the two rookies are not close in my mind. There's far more investment in Rhamondre Stevenson than any Denver back Harvey has to compete with, and the Broncos offense is way better. I'd comfortably roll the dice on Harvey over Henderson, Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard, and any rookie RB not named Ashton Jeanty. He might finish behind those players. The role for Hubbard feels more secure, and he has been great in each of the past two seasons. I'm looking for upside here, though. The track record is diverse and extensive when it comes to Payton elevating backs with similar compact builds to Harvey's. I absolutely loved his film as a rusher. Now he gets to run behind one of the league's best lines, and he may receive a nitro boost of Fantasy upside if the pass-game involvement comes through!

Tua Tagovailoa's absence affected the Dolphins in a drastic way in 2024. The Tua-less stretch for Miami was some of the worst football put on film by any offense at any point last year. Achane's rushing success dropped way off without his starting. Tagovailoa's presence impacted how defenses loaded up the box, and there was a clear change to his receiving metrics:

The path to a huge season for Achane is clear. If he and Tua are healthy, he's going to have a huge season through volume alone.

This is a really obscure note and might not matter at all, but I found it interesting -- the Bucs had an almost identical screen rate on third downs (3.7%) as on all other downs (3.9%). Meanwhile, the rest of the NFL had a 1.8% screen rate on third down and 3.5% rate on all other downs. The other offenses were almost twice as likely to call a screen when it wasn't third down. I'm highlighting third downs because new Tampa offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard overlooked third down playcalling in 2024.

It's impossible to know from the outside how much credit belongs to Grizzard or Liam Coen when it comes to Tampa's league-best screen game. Both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving ranked top-five in designed RB targets in 2024. Tampa designed the NFL's most efficient screen game in 2024, and the running backs were a big part of that.

Irving's collegiate profile offered two exciting green flags regarding his Fantasy outlook as a pro:

1. Awesome avoided tackle and yardage after contact creation

2. Awesome receiving metrics

It's rarely clear how collegiate metrics might translate to the pros. In Year 1, Bucky gave a resounding answer to the first green flag. The second green flag isn't quite as clear after one season, but there were encouraging signals. Irving's per-route receiving metrics were great. But so were Sean Tucker's.

I split Irving's season into just the games that he played +50% of the snaps with Rachaad White also playing, you can find that below.

(You can zoom in on these right? Hit me up X if you can't.)

Irving was injured in Week 14 and a bit limited in Week 15. But outside of that, he operated as the clear lead back late in the season. He had a 59% snap rate in those games and his 17-game pace was 65.2 targets. And that was with Rachaad White operating as the clear preference on third downs.

Things could change in Year 2. The coaching staff seems intent on using all three backs, but still, even a shift to a 65-70% snap rate could represent a significant change for Irving. And what if White were to miss time?

What Irving did with a limited role in 2024 was rare. I'm excited to see how he might expand on it in Year 2.

Before we get started, at least consider that Travis Etienne -- a former Round 1 pick -- might be better than his 2024 season suggests. He played through an injury, and the offense was absolutely abysmal.

You can watch every Travis Etienne rush before his Week 6 hamstring injury here.

And for comparison, here's some Bhayshul Tuten film from Virginia Tech.

And, of course, we can't forget Tank Bigsby.

I lead off the Jaguars RB section by highlighting the rushing work of each back because the reality is that we probably won't see any singular RB capitalize on the receiving upside available in Liam Coen's offense. Unless there's an injury, in which case, an RB could become a sneaky source of supercharged` Fantasy upside.

Highest combined backfield XFP in 2024:

493 - Lions
466 - Dolphins
439 - Bucs
415 - Falcons
404 - Packers

Based on track record, Etienne clearly stands out as most-likely to be featured in the pass game. His Clemson receiving work was awesome, and we have some precedent of him filling a featured role as a pro. Etienne ranked fourth among running backs in designed targets in 2023.

And what if this isn't a three-player backfield? What if Tuten fumbles away his rookie season opportunity? I'm psyched to take shots on the upside that Tuten offers, but if the coaches don't trust the rookie, we could see Etienne's target total push shockingly high. If it's Etienne and Bigsby working as a 1-2 punch with Etienne playing some sort of expanded version of the "Rachaad White" role, that could be one of the best on-paper Fantasy RB roles available in 2025.

This is essentially the same case that could be made for D'Andre Swift as a discount RB who could put up huge PPR production if the backfield split ends up favoring him, but I'm expecting more passing in Jacksonville. I did want to at least mention Swift briefly in this space, though. He's fine as a cheap RB pick. I'm drafting more Roschon Johnson, for what it's worth.

James White piled up 123 targets in Josh McDaniels' offense in 2018. He recorded three separate seasons with a target per route run rate above 28% under McDaniels' oversight. That's crazy. Alvin Kamara is the only other RB with more than two seasons (minimum 250 routes run) with a rate above 28% since 2010. Josh Jacobs' TPRR during his time with McDaniels was 14% higher than his career rate.

I'm a bit dubious of getting carried away with Henderson target projections, because he really wasn't that guy in college. His career target per route run rate (12.4%) ranks 60th out of 74 running backs drafted Round 3 or higher since 2017. His yard per route run rate was good, though -- tied with Achane for 29th. His per-route rates were right in line with Breece Hall's. Hall is basically the only RB in Henderson's range from this group of 74 RBs who went on to be a highly-productive receiving pro.

Henderson had 853 career receiving yards, which is great. That ranks seventh on this list, ahead of Hall and Bijan Robinson. He played more games, though.

A collegiate receiving comparison:

Targets per route run (career)

26.4% - Gibbs
18.4% - Etienne
17.1% - Achane
12.7% - Breece
12.4% - Henderson

Yards per route run (career)

2.61 - Gibbs
1.74 - Etienne
1.21 - Achane
1.21 - Henderson
1.00 - Breece

Receiving yards per game (final season only)

49 - Etienne
37 - Gibbs (he was more involved as a receiver at Georgia Tech than at Bama)
25 - Breece
20 - Achane
18 - Henderson

I agree with most that Henderson's passing down skill set looked good on film. There's target upside with McDaniels designing this offense. I'm not drafting as if it's guaranteed to come through, though. Drake Maye loves to scramble. I'm mostly taking a wait and see approach with Henderson. He absolutely needs the targets to be part of his Fantasy equation, unless the Patriots offense pronouncedly outproduces scoring expectations.

Chase Brown surprised with 4.8 targets per game as Cincinnati's starter in 2024. Maybe that shouldn't have surprised me, though -- the Bengals have been a PPR print shop for the RB position during the Joe Burrow era.

I really enjoyed Tahj Brooks' Texas Tech film, and pass protection was part of his well-rounded skill set. He's probably unlikely to matter as a Round 6 rookie, but his presence may mean fewer passing down snaps for Brown. And if Brown misses time, Brooks profiles as a potential three-down contributor.

Kansas City's backfield ranked eighth in combined XFP. As mentioned at the top of this article, Andy Reid's RB targets have been the most-efficient in the NFL. Even though this role hasn't always materialized into huge RB production, the potential remains.

Below is a look at Isiah Pacheco's 2023-24 regular season game log. On the far right, you'll find snap rates. Pacheco entered 2023 in a split backfield, but he earned a lead role by Week 4. From that point on, Pacheco had a snap rate above 50% in every game.

Pacheco opened up the 2024 season with snap rates of 80% and 69.5%, and then he broke his leg. Upon making a late-season return, his role was drastically reduced. I want to focus on the 13-game sample size of Pacheco working as the team's lead back, because that feels like a realistic outcome for him in 2025 after Kansas City invested minimally into the RB position this offseason.

Pacheco averaged 16.4 PPR points in those 13 games. Here's the range that would have placed him in over the course of the full season among 2024 Fantasy RB:

Pacheco averaged 3.7 targets in those games, providing a 17-game pace of 63 targets. And he became more involved in the passing game with time. I highlighted his games from that sample in chronological order below.

If Brashard Smith doesn't play a significant role on passing downs as a Round 7 rookie, then Pacheco may play a surprisingly stellar role for Fantasy purposes.

Don't sleep on Smith, though. He could have a role as a rookie and could emerge as an important piece of Kansas City's offense if Pacheco misses time.

Once again the best spreadsheet value in Fantasy football, Alvin Kamara is being drafted around RB20 this summer. He was the RB1 overall in XFP per game in 2024.

Kamara missed the Fantasy playoffs in 2024 and is often worn down by the end of the season. Who knows if the Saints will have anything to play for late in the year?

If simply looking for a player who is likely to outproduce ADP expectations early in the year, then Kamara is the bet to place. New offensive designer Kellen Moore runs an uptempo offense and could create more plays, resulting in more targets. Kamara was electric as a receiver in 2024, and it was that way from the get-go. His target per route run rate was actually higher with Chris Olave on the field than without him. Nothing about the 2024 production feels fraudulent. Kamara again projects as one of the clearest Fantasy football cheat codes as a receiving savant.

The targets have been down since arriving in San Francisco.

What if that changes with Deebo Samuel removed from the equation?

Justin Fields has made notable improvements to his sack-to-pressure ratio from Years 1-2 to Years 3-4, a byproduct of which is less scrambling and more passing to the RB position. Over the past two seasons, Fields has the ninth-highest RB target rate out of 44 qualifiers.

I do not expect the Jets to choose to pass often. If forced into the dropback game, though, then this offense might produce a ton of targets for the RB room. Garrett Wilson is the only pass-catcher on this roster that has proven capable of sustaining even a league-average target share. If Hall is healthy, he's one of the most dangerous ball-carriers in the league. He might be an awesome Fantasy discount if Tanner Engstrand's offense accentuates RB production similar to what we've seen in Detroit.

To close out, I'm going to rank backup running backs based on my speculation as to which might be the most-likely to offer target upside if a larger role materializes:

Tier 1

Brashard Smith
Tahj Brooks
Tyjae Spears (you can watch all of his Year 2 opportunities here)
Bhayshul Tuten
Rachaad White

Tier 2

Woody Marks (might belong in Tier 1. Not sure how much Houston will pass. Could be a lot!)
Jaylen Warren
Jaydon Blue
Tank Bigsby
Devin Neal
Isaiah Davis

Tier 3

Braelon Allen
Jaylen Wright
DJ Giddens (lower if Anthony Richardson is starting)
Sean Tucker
LeQuint Allen (just a name to know, highly unlikely to matter in 2025)

Tier 4

Jordan Mason
Dylan Sampson (is this Jerome Ford's role again?)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (only if Austin Ekeler missed time)
Trevor Etienne
Isaac Guerendo
Trey Benson
Ray Davis (skill set is there, the Bills don't throw to the position much. And Ty Johnson is still there)
Zach Charbonnet (skill set is there, not sure we'll see a ton of RB targets in this offense)

Tier 5

Will Shipley (skill set is there!)
Tyler Allgeier
Rico Dowdle
Roschon Johnson
Jordan James
Jarquez Hunter
MarShawn Lloyd
Keaton Mitchell
Kyle Monangai
Blake Corum

If you're missing football, here are some film cut-ups that I've recently created:

Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa on the field

Zach Charbonnet

Kenneth Walker

New Orleans Saints offense - Week 1 vs. Carolina Panthers (if you want to imagine how Walker/Charbs might fit in Klint Kubiak's offense)

New Orleans Saints offense - Week 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Chase Brown

Bucky Irving

Derrick Henry

James Conner

Jahmyr Gibbs

Josh Jacobs

Travis Etienne

Chuba Hubbard

Tony Pollard

Ricky Pearsall

Jacob Cowing

Jalen Coker

Keon Coleman

Jermaine Burton

Devaughn Vele

Xavier Worthy

Adonai Mitchell

Josh Downs

Alec Pierce

Rashod Bateman

Cedric Tillman

Elijah Moore (One of these days, maybe I will learn)

Jameson Williams

Puka Nacua

Marvin Mims

Tutu Atwell

Jordan Whittington

Jayden Reed

Malik Washington

Kayshon Boutte

That should tide you over for awhile :)

If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out!