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| Wednesday, December 20, 2023 |
| We didn't get nearly as many injury updates as I hoped for on Tuesday, though there was one big one: Aaron Rodgers probably won't be coming back this season. |
| Now, that's obviously not too surprising, as he ruptured his Achilles less than four months ago and the Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. But it is noteworthy because there was still at least some room to believe that the Jets offense might get a late injection of hope for the Fantasy playoffs. That won't be happening, and we might not even have Zach Wilson available in Week 16 against the Commanders, as he's in the concussion protocol. |
| That certainly hurts Garrett Wilson's appeal, but I'm not about to sit him against a Commanders defense that routinely leaves guys wide open down the field. It makes him a bit riskier if Zach Wilson doesn't play, but how many wide receivers don't have risk right now? Eight? 11? It's certainly not enough to scare me off Wilson. |
| So, that's one lineup question answered for some of you. We'll be looking to answer more of them later this week, and you can get involved by sending your toughest questions my way at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included in Friday morning's newsletter. |
| Those questions I don't get to in Friday's newsletter, I'll try to answer directly, so send them in! We're trying to help you get to and then win a Fantasy championship here, after all. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got Heath Cummings' position previews for Week 16, and tomorrow, I'll preview every Week 16 game, including the latest injury updates from every game we can get in. |
| My Week 16 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE |
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🔍Week 16 Position Previews
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| Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: |
| QB Preview |
| "Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence were all expected to be close to must-start quarterbacks when healthy this season. As we enter Week 16, all four rank outside of the top 12 QBs in terms of Fantasy points per game. That in itself doesn't necessarily mean you should sit them, but you at least have to consider the case. |
| Fields is my highest ranked and the guy whose low ranking is easiest to explain. He only played 53% of the snaps and scored just five Fantasy points in Week 6 against the Vikings. And last week he lost four points on Hail Mary INTs, and a lot more than that if you think Darnell Mooney should have caught one of them for a touchdown. Add in that he's facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth-most FPPG to QBs and I'm comfortably starting Fields this week. |
| Tagovailoa also cracks my top 12, as long as Tyreek Hill is available. Tagovailoa has thrown for at least 300 yards or three-plus TDs in every healthy home game he's played with a healthy Hill. While it's easy to say that you should sit the Dolphins QB if Hill is out again, it will get complicated if Hill doesn't practice and is a true game time decision." |
Injuries: Trevor Lawrence (concussion), C.J. Stroud (concussion), Will Levis (ankle), Kenny Pickett (ankle) and Zach Wilson (concussion).Number to know: 18 -- The Ravens have only allowed three quarterbacks all season to score more than 18 Fantasy points. This will be the biggest test Brock Purdy has faced yet.
Matchup that matters: Baker Mayfield vs. JAX (5th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Nick Mullens, Vikings: "Despite the fact that they're on their fourth QB, the Vikings rank seventh in both passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. That's partially because they rank fourth in pass attempts and partially because their trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson is one of the most talented in the league. Mullens is competent enough to produce 20 Fantasy points with this crew and the Lions provide a good matchup to do it against." |
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| RB Preview |
| "We've reached the time of year where lineup decisions can feel debilitating. The fear of making a fatal mistake in the playoffs is understandable, but you're going to have to get over it. Especially at running back in Week 16. |
| As of Tuesday afternoon, I have 31 running backs projected to score at least 12 PPR Fantasy points. But I only have 13 running backs projected to score 15 PPR Fantasy points, and four of them are Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Ty Chandler. In other words, most people in the playoffs are going to have some difficult decisions to make at running back. |
| What I suggest this week is sticking with your process. For some people that means that they would never sit an early-round pick like Tony Pollard or Derrick Henry for a waiver wire add like Chandler. For others that may mean they could never start a guy like Robinson or Hall who just faceplanted, over a guy like James Conner who just had a great game. For me, that means I'll trust where my projections land at kickoff. There is a saying that you should trust the guys who got you here. I modify that only slightly; trust the process that got you here." |
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Injuries: Jonathan Taylor (thumb), Zack Moss (shoulder), Josh Jacobs (quadriceps), Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), Alexander Mattison (ankle), Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), Keaton Mitchell (knee), A.J. Dillon (thumb) and Elijah Mitchell (knee).Number to know: 69% -- Jaylen Warren played a season-high 69% of the snaps in Week 15. Hopefully that wasn't entirely about the game script.
Matchup that matters: James Conner @CHI (30th vs. RB)Waiver add: Zamir White, Raiders: "In his first game without Josh Jacobs, White saw 20 touches and produced 85 yards and 17.5 PPR Fantasy points. If Jacobs remains out in Week 16, White would be a high-end flex with top-20 upside at running back." |
| WR Preview |
| "There will be a lot of difficult decisions to make in the Fantasy semifinals in Week 16. Whether or not you start Rashee Rice shouldn't be one of them. While Rice is just WR29 on the season, that's mostly due to a slow start, and his hot start has pushed him into must-start, borderline top-12 territory. |
| The Chiefs' star rookie has at least nine targets in four straight games and he's scored at least 14 PPR Fantasy points in all four of those games. Since Week 12, only Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb have scored more PPR Fantasy points that Rice. |
| On paper, the matchup doesn't look great, because the Raiders have been above average in terms of limiting the Fantasy production of wide receivers. But this hot stretch started against the Raiders, when Rice scored 24.7 PPR Fantasy points against them in Week 12. They are playing a style of defense that limits big plays but allows throws underneath which fits Rice and his 4.3 ADOT perfectly. While the Raiders have surrendered the 11th-fewest passing yards this season, they've given up the fourth-most yards after the catch. |
| If Rice is on your roster, he's in your starting lineup. You have plenty of other things to stress about." |
Injuries: Tyreek Hill (ankle), Chris Olave (ankle), Michael Pittman (concussion), Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder), Nico Collins (calf), Keenan Allen (heel), Jayden Reed (toe), Christian Watson (hamstring), Marquise Brown (heel), Zay Jones (hamstring) and Michael Thomas (knee).Number to know: 11.4 -- Deebo Samuel is on pace to become just the fourth player since 1992 to average more than 11 yards per target with at least 60 targets in a season twice. The other three are Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, and DeSean Jackson.
Matchup that matters: Drake London vs. IND (9th vs. WR)Waiver add: Curtis Samuel, Commanders: "Samuel was the top waiver wire add at wide receiver last week as well, but he still sits at just 57% rostered. He has three straight games with double-digit Fantasy points and he's topped 19 in two of those games. The matchup isn't great but it's easier for him than it is for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson." |
| TE Preview |
| "We went through a stretch this season where tight end actually felt pretty deep. That seems to have shifted back the other direction. Both Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth have struggled to regain footing since returning from their injuries and Dalton Kincaid has been hampered by Dawson Knox's return. Kyle Pitts and Tayson Hill continue to be wildly inconsistent as well. |
| Thankfully we have Darren Waller back now, and he's available in 41% of leagues. Waller may very well be the very best waiver wire add, regardless of position. So much so, that I'm writing about him here instead of in the streamer section below. Don't worry, I have another name there for you if you can't add Waller. |
| In his first game back, Waller earned a 27.3% TPRR and 1.82 YPRR. Those are both in line with his career norms, and slightly better than what he's been so far this season. Assuming he becomes a full-time player for the final two games of the season, they would translate into elite production against a mediocre Eagles pass defense in Week 16 and a Rams defense that has struggled mightily against tight ends in the second half of the season. As frustrating as Waller has been he could be a league winner in the final two weeks of the playoffs, make sure he's rostered in your league." |
Injuries: Hunter Henry (knee) and Luke Musgrave (abdomen).Number to know: 26.9% -- Trey McBride leads all tight ends with a 26.9% TPRR. He may just be the TE1 next year.
Matchup that matters: Dalton Schultz vs. CLE (7th vs. TE)Streamer: Gerald Everett, Chargers: "Everett has a combined 16 targets and 10 catches in his last two games combined. If Keenan Allen remains out, I like him as a top-12 tight end this week. Even if Allen returns, Everett is the top streamer." |
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