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| Thursday, June 13, 2024 |
| Our Fantasy product launch was last week, featuring nearly 700 players based on our consensus PPR rankings. In this newsletter, we'll cover player outlooks. Each round is contained in a separate article in which Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg, and Dan Schneier take turns providing insight on players projected to come off the board in rounds one through six. We'll cover rounds seven through eight later this week. |
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 |
| Dan Schneier examined five quarterback regression candidates for 2024. While regression often carries a negative connotation, it can present an opportunity for positive change. Positive regression suggests that a player who underperformed in the previous season has the potential to revert to their usual level of performance. Find out which Pro Bowl quarterback has room for positive regression, here. |
| One of the biggest risers in ADP is Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Despite his rapid rise in ADP, Megan Shoup highlights why drafting him still presents tremendous value in Best Ball . Shoup is quite bullish on Ridley, suggesting he may experience positive touchdown regression in 2024. To delve deeper into her analysis and understand why she believes he'll exceed his ADP, be sure to check out her latest piece. |
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| Player outlooks: What you need to know about every projected pick |
| Round 1 |
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| Our FFT team compiled a roster based on consensus PPR rankings for rounds one through six, updated as of June 10. While Round 1 didn't offer any surprises, there's one player I'm eyeing toward the end of the first round: Jahmyr Gibbs. Jamey Eisenberg shares my enthusiasm, considering Gibbs as a top running back across all leagues, foreseeing another standout year for him in 2024. Lions GM Brad Holmes hinted at Gibbs taking on a heavier workload this season. Even if David Montgomery maintains a higher carry count, Jamey predicts Gibbs could still tally 250-plus touches in 2024. |
| Round 2 |
| It's rare that we see a rookie wideout enter the NFL with as many expectations as Marvin Harrison Jr . It remains to be seen whether he can live up to the hype, he was regularly selected in Round 2 of our FFT mock drafts and is a consensus Round 2 pick. Dave Richard states that Harrison figures to be a big-time red-zone option that has all the traits necessary to become a Fantasy must-start stud. He's a player I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on in Round 2 as well. His body control along the boundary is probably among the best we've seen since Larry Fitzgerald, and it's apropos that he lands in the same city as the former Cardinals legend. |
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| Round 3 |
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| A Round 3 standout among our FFT team is Derrick Henry, now with the Baltimore Ravens. According to Dan Schneier, Henry has the potential to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in touchdowns, despite being on the other side of 30. If I miss out on Jahmyr Gibbs, Henry is an excellent alternative, though their playing styles differ. Gibbs will score plenty of touchdowns thanks to his versatility. Meanwhile, Henry will likely be equally as productive due to him being paired with the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL. With teams focusing on keeping outside contain on Lamar Jackson, they'll be unable to put a singular focus on Henry, which should result in wider rushing lanes for the four-time Pro Bowler. |
| Round 4 |
| The Chicago Bears made notable additions to their receiving corps this offseason with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. However, Dave Richard maintains that D.J. Moore should still be considered the Bears No. 1 receiver. Despite potential decreases in productivity, Moore remains an excellent option in Round 4. With a career-best 16.9 PPR points last year, he has the potential to outperform his ADP, even amidst competition in Chicago's crowded wide receiver room. If Moore is available in Round 4 of your draft, don't hesitate to pick him up. In fact, considering him a round earlier wouldn't be unreasonable if you're in need of a reliable wide receiver, as his overall production is unlikely to decline as much as some anticipate. |
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Round 5
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| The consensus at CBS suggests that Dalton Kincaid warrants a Round 5 pick as one of the top six tight ends. However, given the current situation with the Bills' pass-catchers, don't be surprised if someone in your league reaches for him. Heath emphasizes that Year 2 often marks a breakout season for tight ends, and with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in Buffalo, quarterback Josh Allen will rely on Kincaid to step up. I recommend targeting Kincaid in Round 5, especially considering he earned 91 targets in 16 games as a rookie. While he may share some targets with Dawson Knox, the vacant targets in Buffalo suggest he'll be just as, if not more, productive than last season. |
| Round 6 |
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| Zay Flowers had a standout stretch during his rookie season, particularly when tight end Mark Andrews was sidelined with an ankle injury. In four of his final five regular-season games, Flowers averaged 19.6 PPR points. Jamey Eisenberg considers Flowers a top-tier No. 3 Fantasy receiver in most leagues, a sentiment I share. Despite competition for targets from Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, and Andrews, Flowers remains a valuable asset for Fantasy due to his explosiveness and role in quick-hitting plays. |
| Five quarterback regression candidates for 2024 |
| Dan Schneier recently highlighted five quarterback regression candidates for the 2024 season, and I was surprised to see Josh Allen on the list. While some quarterbacks are expected to regress negatively, Allen is projected to experience positive regression. Despite throwing 29 touchdowns in 2023, his lowest rate in four seasons, Dan believes Allen will bounce back with 35 or more touchdowns in 2024. This prediction may raise eyebrows given Allen's offseason losses in terms of offensive weapons. However, the prospect of distributing targets more evenly could render Allen less predictable and potentially more productive this upcoming season. |
| 2024 Best Ball Rankings: Why Calvin Ridley still has value as ADP rises |
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| Calvin Ridley's ADP continues to rise making him a coveted option in Best Ball formats. Since the launch of Underdog Fantasy's Best Ball Mania, Ridley's ADP has surged six spots to 61.6. Megan Shoup ranks him at No. 51 in her updated Sportsline rankings. Despite posting 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns on 136 targets last season, Ridley still has untapped potential, especially considering some missed opportunities in the end zone. With his move from Jacksonville to Bill Callahan's pass-heavy offense in Tennessee, Ridley is expected to assume a role akin to how Ja'marr Chase was utilized in Cincinnati, indicating a promising outlook for the upcoming season. |
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