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| Friday, April 25, 2025 |
| If you follow me on X, you know that I watched way more film this draft season than ever before. And, at least through one round, that process has been validated by the NFL decision-makers! |
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| I preferred the film for both Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe over Sheduer Sanders, which was definitely not a popular take! I also preferred Colston Loveland's film over Tyler Warren as a blocker and receiver. So, it was encouraging to see that play out in the actual NFL Draft. |
| I would guess that you are here first and foremost for yourself and not to read about my small wins, so I won't take up much more of your time celebrating these small wins. It does feel good to feel a bit less crazy, though! For a long time, I was on an island with some of these takes. Maybe an NFL GM will be crazy enough to join me on my Raheim Sanders on Day 2 island today! At least one other person on this earth watched Rocket Sanders' film, right?! He's a stud! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills! |
| Okay, for real, let's analyze last night's action. |
| Fantasy Football Winners from Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft: |
| Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars |
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| The Jaguars traded everything to go get Travis Hunter, and Shedeur Sanders fell out of Round 1. Could the NFL have offered a more clear illustration of which Colorado star was the one responsible for putting numbers on the board? What a vote of confidence! |
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| I view this landing spot as a simple and almost-certain win for Hunter. The only path to him not producing at a high level that I can envision is if Trevor Lawrence's career derails. I feel reasonably confident in new play-caller Liam Coen, the surrounding offensive pieces, and the glimpses we have from Lawrence to believe that he can put up league-average QB play as a baseline. |
| With league-average QB play, Jacksonville's offense is probably going to work. League-worst offensive line play could sabotage it. But as long as circumstances are even somewhat close to average, I believe that the wide receiver pairing of Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be overpowering in a way that nearly precludes offensive failure all on its own. Those two can put so much pressure on opposing defenses to cover every blade of grass. Hunter is probably going to almost exclusively be working in situations where he has only one defender to beat to produce winning reps, and his catch radius is too big for almost all defenders to be solely responsible for. |
| Hunter's landing spot is a huge W. Jacksonville's investment signifies a clear plan to feature him. The organization already has made it clear that his top priority is contributing on offense. Push him as high as you want in rookie rankings. I'll publish mine on Monday, and Hunter very well may be the first name that you see below Ashton Jeanty's. |
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| Jacksonville's front office is so obviously incentivized to facilitate Hunter's growth and production. More than any player on the team, even Lawrence, Hunter has become the face of the franchise for the new decision-makers in Jacksonville. Unless you outright do not believe in his talent, then this is a situation that is worth buying into. This type of investment in a non-QB is rare. |
| Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears |
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| Speaking of rare investments, the first big-time buy for Ben Johnson in Chicago was a luxury one. Using top-10 draft capital on a non-premium position is a risky move. With a competent option already in place at TE, and with the consensus top tight end still on the board, the Bears made a conviction pick. This type of investment in Colston Loveland is clear and noteworthy. And it makes sense, in my opinion. I can't wait to see how Johnson gets creative with this chess piece in his offense. |
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| Some might cite this landing spot as neutral or even negative based on target competition. And, to be fair, I had listed the Chargers and Broncos as ideal landing spots for Loveland. But that's because I did not expect him to be picked in this range. This is a fantastic landing spot. And Loveland flashed unique target-earning ability at the collegiate level. |
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| Loveland has a rare skill set. He is so smooth as a route-runner for a player of his size. |
| He was the only thing keeping Michigan's offense from completely falling apart in 2024. And that became clear when he missed time. |
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| Projecting his Year 1 stats isn't going to provide as clean of an outlook as it might have with the Chargers, but there absolutely is upside for him to demand a healthy target share as a rookie. We don't know how this target distribution will shake out, but the Bears will be incentivized to make sure that he is part of it. And if Johnson's competence in creating mismatches carries over from his time with the Lions, then Loveland might be open all the time. With DJ Moore and Rome Odunze to worry about, defenses probably won't be keying on a rookie TE. |
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| Jaxson Dart, New York Giants |
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| Who were the Giants trading ahead of? My guess is that the Giants felt a need to get ahead of the LA Rams or another team. Either way, it seems clear that there was competition to make Dart a Round 1 selection. |
| I loved Dart's film. I know that there are some frustrating decisions and some head-scratching throws. There are some downright awful throws, to be frank. There's a lot of really good throws, too. There are Sunday throws in there. Lane Kiffin's offense set Dart up for success, but that does not negate the success that he had. Dart was more efficient than any recent Kiffin QB. He checks so many analytical boxes -- efficiency when throwing to all areas, big-time throw upside, rushing upside, sack-to-pressure rate, early breakout -- he's a complete profile on paper. And again, his film shows Dart attacking all areas of the field, delivering darts down the field, throwing with anticipation, and creating plays on his own with his legs. |
| There are nits to pick. He probably leans too much on his legs, sometimes appearing more content to run than complete a full progression. His efficiency dipped on non-play-action throws, and his sample size of operating a straight dropback game is small. I don't want to pretend that he's perfect. I believe most or all of the red flags are ones that can be addressed, and the Giants have veteran quarterbacks -- Dart could be given his entire rookie season to learn. And when he's ready to play, he gets to throw to Malik Nabers. Dart is a Round 1 rookie pick in Superflex formats. I expect the Giants to weaponize his legs and maximize his play-action passing ability to unlock efficiency as a passer. There is exciting upside, and you might be able to bet on it for cheap because of the depth of the 2025 rookie class. |
| Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers |
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| This was the dream landing spot for Golden. Dallas using a top-12 pick on him would have been exciting, but more than maybe any other team, the Packers offer Golden a chance to become the WR1 in a target distribution. |
| Green Bay did not throw the ball enough to warrant much excitement, even for the WR1, in 2024. That could change with a Round 1 WR added to the equation. The Packers skill position group is deep and diverse, and defenses won't be able to key on any one player. With opportunities for Golden to win in one-on-one situations, I feel good about the outcome. He's deadly as a route runner. |
| Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers |
| Najee Harris only got $5 million guaranteed. Investing a Round 1 pick into Omarion Hampton carries much more weight. |
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| Out of 23 running backs with 200+ rush attempts, Harris ranked 21st in the NFL in rush success rate in 2024. He had a 39.9% rate, while the rest of Pittsburgh's backfield combined for a 43.5% rate. |
| Hampton is probably going to get as much work as he can handle. That's what typically has occurred when an RB was drafted in Round 1. And Hampton is built for it. |
| Greg Roman hasn't actually produced as many elite Fantasy running backs as his run-first reputation might suggest, but I'm happy to bet on Hampton's draft capital and prospect evaluation. He's a complete RB prospect, and I'd be surprised if Hampton didn't approach 250+ touches and a top-12 Fantasy RB finish in 2025. |
| Below, you'll find running backs who were selected in Round 1 over the past 10 years. Well, all of them except for Rashaad Penny. |
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| Penny (96 touches) and McCaffrey were the only two who did not finish with 200+ touches as rookies. The vast majority pushed for 250+ touches. Most of the time, you want to be on the side that placed Fantasy bets on Round 1 running backs. |
| Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers |
| He's not out of the woods yet, but Warren is still alive! The Steelers passing on a Round 1 RB is noteworthy because their second-round pick does not belong to them. It's possible that Warren heads into 2025 as the 1A in a backfield rotation. His work to this point in his career certainly warrants it! |
| Thank you for reading! |
| Here's my most recent podcast appearance! |
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| If you missed my RB rankings update, you can find those on X. |
| If you want to watch rookie RB film, check this thread out! |
| And if you want to hear my thoughts on the rookie TE class, catch this FFT Dynasty podcast with Heath Cummings! |
| I hope that you enjoy Day 2 of the NFL Draft! I'll be back in your inbox with analysis on Monday. |
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