| |
|
| Friday, August 23, 2024 |
| Who is this year's Puka Nacua? |
| I can't make an FFT podcast appearance without getting this question in the live chat. I've heard it all summer on Twitter. It's such an absurd question. |
| |
| Who's this year's historic outlier of a rookie breakout? Maybe Marvin Harrison Jr.? Could be Caleb Williams. Probably none of the rookies, even in this awesome 2024 class. |
| Let's change the question to "who are this year's unhearalded rookies to know?" In last year's version of this article, three of the ten answers to that question were Nacua, Tank Dell, and Jayden Reed. Will we hit on that level of breakouts in this space today? That'd be awesome! Again, though, I'm going with probably not as the answer. Two of those monster breakouts (Nacua and Reed) required injuries (to Cooper Kupp and Christian Watson) to truly unlock their potential. That's unpredictable. My realistic expectation is to give you a list of 10 under-the-radar rookies who have the ability to produce in 2024 if given the opportunity. |
| If you've been following me on Twitter or reading the newsletter for much time, you probably already have a lot of rookies that you like. Here's a list of some of my favorite not-so-obvious ones: |
Tyrone Tracy
Bucky Irving
Ray Davis
MarShawn Lloyd
Ben Sinnott
Will Shipley
Jalen McMillan
Luke McCaffrey |
| We're not going to talk about any of those rooks today. They're not quite UNHERALDED enough. If you want to learn more about any of them, you can search my Twitter name and the player's name with the 'latest' designation and you'll find plenty of content. Just like this: |
| |
| I love Ray Davis. My brother and I just started our first Madden 2025 franchise together, and we chose the Carolina Panthers, and we then traded for Ray Davis to be the thunder to Jonathon Brooks' lightning. I am a sick, sick man. That is precisely who you want to tell you about late-round rookies. |
| |
| Unhearalded Rookies Who Might Help You Win Your League |
| My initial answer this summer to the "this year's Puka" question was New York Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., but I feel like I've written about him all summer and he is a fairly trendy rookie sleeper at this point. If looking for true league-winning upside from a random rookie, Tracy is an excellent pick. He is an awesome athlete, and explosive rusher, and a potential three-down contributor. |
| The rookies we are focused on today will be even more obscure. None of them may contribute in 2024. Don't think of these players are ones that you need to leave your draft with, but rather ones to be well aware of and keep an eye on as the season progresses. |
| Carson Steele, RB, Kansas City Chiefs |
| Maybe the cat is out of the bag at this point, but still, Steele is a UDFA. Surely he is not too mainstream for this article. If you haven't yet caught onto the Steele mania, you can watch every preseason carry of his here. |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been sidelined with personal health issues, leaving the door open for someone else in this backfield to emerge as the RB2. Steele rumbled through the open door, ripped it off its hinges, and snapped it with his bare hands like a twig. He sure seems to have earned the role as the primary backup to Isiah Pacheco. |
| Sione Vaki, RB, Detroit Lions |
| No running backs have been moving up my rankings more rapidly than Steele and Sione Vaki. The Lions drafted him much earlier than I remembered, and he has looked like a fantastic pick so far. |
| |
| In a rookie roundup that I created after the first two weeks of preseason, I wrote the following about Vaki: |
| |
| Both Vaki and Steele were awesome with their rushing opportunities at the collegiate level, too. I looked into both more this morning. Steele rushed for 3,291 yards in three seasons (two at Ball State and one at UCLA) with a 29% avoided tackle rate and 3.85 yards after contact per rush. |
| |
| Sometimes the answers are hidden right under our nose. |
| In Vaki's case, we have far less evidence. He was a defensive back in college. He did receive 42 rush attempts in his final season at Utah, on which he avoided 24 tackles on his way to a 7.5 yard per rush average. That's wildly efficient in terms of both metrics. He's looked fantastic this preseason and could play a meaningful role in the best Fantasy offense in the NFL if either Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery miss time. |
| Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers |
| |
| We will hit on both Cowing and Malik Washington in this space today, so don't worry. |
| If betting on one player to be "this year's Tank Dell," Cowing is my choice. His collegiate data was much more inspiring than Ricky Pearsall's. Of the two, Cowing's game may be more NFL-ready in 2024. |
| Kyle Shanahan has seemed to have a type, when it comes to small speedy field-stretchers fitting his system: |
| |
| Cowing feels cut from the same cloth as some of these players who found success (at least temporarily) in a Shanahan-led offense. It will likely require an injury, but Cowing could play a a meaningful role at some point as a rookie and has the juice to put numbers on the board if playing in the NFL's most-efficient offense. |
| Jordan Whittington, WR, Los Angeles Rams |
| The drumbeat out of Rams camp has been steady on Whittington, and he has backed it up with his on-field preseason performance. Sean McVay seems to love the Round 6 rookie. |
| At the collegiate level, Whittington shared the field with Xavier Worthy at Texas and did not produce much from a total volume or efficiency standpoint. He doesn't have underlying per-route rates that inspire confidence in any sort of way that is similar to Nacua's collegiate profile. |
| He does play in a Sean McVay-led offense, though. And some ambiguity may exist at the third receiver spot, although Demarcus Robinson did play well down the stretch in 2023. I'm not as sold on Whittington from a talent perspective as the other players who we have hit on to this point, but the theme of targeting players who could end up in a meaningful role in a high-powered offense remains intact. Speaking of which... |
| |
| Erick All, TE, Cincinnati Bengals |
| He's recovering from an ACL tear, but Cincinnati's Round 4 rookie tight end has been able to get on the field this preseason and may play a meaningful role in the offense in time. Currently, it appears as if Cincinnati will open the season with a TE rotation. All could work his way in. |
| |
| All is a 6-foot-5 and 255-pound behemoth who can scoot a little bit too. His career at Iowa was an abbreviated one, but it did deliver some intriguing data. |
| |
| Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers |
| The mystery man was not heard from at all during training camp, then missed the first preseason game, and was rumored to be a cut candidate. L.A.'s Round 6 pick finally made his appearance in the second preseason game, you can watch all of his touches from that game here. He looks good to me. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are expected to lead this backfield out of the gate, but the NFL season is a marathon and not a sprint. Who knows how long those two will be healthy enough to shoulder the load of Jim Harbaugh's run-centric offense. |
| Vidal was a dawg at Troy. He absolutely proved capable of shouldering the load and doing so effectively. |
| |
| A few people pushed back when this tweet blew up this summer, complaining about a lack of predictiveness. That's not really the point. That's the purpose of some data, sure. Congrats to you if you find something predictive, that's dope. Some data is descriptive. This data set displays a list of players who handled a massive workload and still produced efficiently with it. Vidal's name is near the very top. That's pretty cool. |
| I feel no confidence in any predictiveness when it comes to what I know about L.A.'s Round 6 pick. I feel even less confidence in placing a bet on his veteran backfield teammates exhibiting longevity in the year 2024. My guess is that Vidal gets a crack at an NFL role at some point during his rookie season. |
| Dylan Laube, RB, Las Vegas Raiders |
| You can watch the Round 6 RB's six preseason touches here. Below, you can examine his collegiate data profile compiled over six years at New Hampshire. |
| |
| Laube's rushing data is simply not inspiring, particularly his 15% avoided tackle rate in 2023. He averaged under five yards per rush in his two seasons as a workhorse. That's pretty rough for a lower level of competition. His receiving contributions are the primary reason that Laube was drafted. |
| |
| That is a HUGE receiving line for a college RB. Again, this production came at New Hampshire. During the time that I have the data available (dating back to 2017), Kenneth Gainwell and Saquon Barkley are the only two backs to post 600+ receiving yards in a season. Zamir White is not a passing downs contributor. It's possible that we see Laube on the field for third downs as a rookie, and he could play an even larger role if White and/or Alexander Mattison miss time. |
| Is he as exciting as the other names on this list? Nope. But receptions are a cheat code for Fantasy running backs! Keep Laube's name in mind if playing in PPR formats. |
| Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins |
| Here's a bit of Malik Washington preseason footage for you. |
| |
| Malik Nabers was the only WR to register a higher PFF grade than Washington in 2023. The NFL then ignored him until Miami drafted him in Round 6, so make what you will of the five-foot-eight speedster's collegiate production. |
| Mike McDaniel was hyped to land Washington in the draft, and he's had good things to say about the rookie after spending an offseason with him. The Dolphins also have used three receiver sets way more this preseason than in 2023, which could simply be a way to get De'Von Achane more involved as a receiver. If the personnel change sticks during regular season action, it would clear a path for Washington to potentially see the field as a rookie. |
| |
| It would probably require an injury to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle for Washington to play, but the three-receiver set increase could allow him to play alongside the two superstar receivers. |
| Jaheim Bell, TE, New England Patriots |
| He's a seventh-round tight end selection. He probably won't ever matter for Fantasy purposes. You better believe I have him stashed away on all of my Dynasty taxi squads, though. |
| |
| Bell has some Delanie Walker to his game. He's dope. And with New England's tight end room dealing with injuries, he's poised for a big opportunity in the third preseason game. Could be fun! |
| Tiered Rankings Update |
| If you missed Monday's newsletter, no worries! Below, you can find my up-to-date tiered rankings. I'm going to just be attaching this updated rankings set to the bottom of every newsletter for the remainder of draft season. |
| |
Tier 1 -- Cheat Codes
|
| (These tiered rankings are representative of how I'm drafting in half-PPR formats. My updated non-PPR and full-PPR rankings will be live on SportsLine on Wednesday.) |
| Players in bold are ones that I have ranked significantly ahead of ADP. I highly recommend being sensitive to the site that is hosting your draft. Each draft is different. You might be able to get a player who I rank in my top-20 in Round 3 or 4 on some sites. The more aware of where discrepancies in my rankings and ADP exist, the more value you will be likely to scoop up throughout your draft. |
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Tyreek Hill |
| Tier 2 -- Potential Cheat Codes |
4. Breece Hall
5. Bijan Robinson |
| |
| Scott Barrett is a smart dude! He believes that the potential top-end outcome for the few remaining bellcow running backs is so high that those three should be the first players selected in Fantasy. That thinking makes some sense to me, which is why I place Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson in a tier of their own above Ja'Marr Chase and a bunch of other elite receivers. In my opinion, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb are cheat codes in their own right -- they don't project for quite the gargantuan point total that CMC put up last year, but they do both project for more points than I've ever projected a WR for. |
| Tier 3 -- Dawgs |
| You can't go wrong in this tier. A lot of people complain about picking from the back of the round, which I get from the perspective of missing out on the cheat codes at the top of the draft. That's always the case, though. Picking in the back half sucks. Your league really should have instituted a third-round reversal by this point to at least attempt to mitigate the disadvantage. |
| Anyway, enough complaining! The players in this tier are absolute dawgs. Any one of them could finish as the top scoring Fantasy WR in 2024. |
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown
7. A.J. Brown
8. Ja'Marr Chase
9. Justin Jefferson
10. Garrett Wilson
11. Deebo Samuel
12. Puka Nacua
13. Nico Collins |
| Tier 4 -- Scared money don't make money |
| You've gotta make a pick. I know that these don't feel like Round 2 picks. What are you gonna do? Draft Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor because that feels "safer?" Henry is a 30-year old running back, and the DraftSharks Injury Predictor has him as the "safest" pick of those three. |
| |
| None of the picks in this range are going to feel good. That's the nature of the beast. There's a lot of ambiguity in 2024 as young players step into larger roles. That presents us with a lot of upside! Let's focus on the potential for how cool it could be if these players thrive in 2024 rather than suffering in advance anticipating these Round 2 picks coming back to bite us. |
14. Marvin Harrison Jr.
15. Jaylen Waddle
16. Drake London
17. Jahmyr Gibbs
18. De'Von Achane
19. Kyren Williams |
| |
| Check out this historical analysis done by the great Ryan Heath. Don't be afraid to bet on De'Von Achane. If it does not pay off, everything will be alright. We will get through this together. |
| While we have the Dolphins on the brain, you can check out this Twitter thread if you'd like to know why I have Jaylen Waddle so high. |
| Tier 5 -- I feel solid about all of these picks |
| Once you hit Round 3, it's time to consider grabbing an elite tight end. "What are the trends that are gonna define 2024 that we don't know yet?" My former CBS colleague Ben Gretch (subscribe to his substack and learn to make smarter Fantasy football decisions! ) posed that question in relation to the tight end position. He believes that the 2024 Fantasy TE group is stronger and deeper at the top than ever before, and I agree. The profiles of Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and George Kittle are all extremely strong. I try to always land one of that bunch. That is not always realistic, as sometimes I find elite players like Nico Collins or Jaylen Waddle somehow available in Round 3. That's a good problem to have, though! |
| Here's how I'd sort out the elite tight ends and the rest of Tier 5: |
20. Jonathan Taylor
21. Derrick Henry
22. Isiah Pacheco
23. Brandon Aiyuk
24. Chris Olave
25. Malik Nabers
26. Trey McBride
27. Sam LaPorta
28. Davante Adams
29. DeVonta Smith
30. DJ Moore
31. Travis Kelce
32. Mark Andrews |
| |
| Tier 6 -- Quarterbacks are on the menu! |
33. Josh Jacobs
34. DK Metcalf
35. Cooper Kupp
36. Josh Allen
37. Mike Evans
38. Lamar Jackson
39. Jalen Hurts
40. Patrick Mahomes
41. Kyle Pitts
42. Saquon Barkley
43. Travis Etienne
44. Anthony Richardson
45. George Kittle
46. Dalton Kincaid
47. Rashee Rice
48. Rachaad White |
| |
| Rachaad White is poised to handle a massive workload and was the Fantasy RB4 in PPR formats in 2023, but I can't help but fall in love with Tampa Bay's Round 4 rookie RB Bucky Irving. |
| |
| Tier 7 |
49. Kenneth Walker
50. Diontae Johnson
51. James Cook
52. Michael Pittman
53. Christian Kirk
54. Amari Cooper
55. Tee Higgins
56. Tank Dell
57. Stefon Diggs |
| Tier 8 |
58. David Montgomery
59. Jonathan Brooks
60. Calvin Ridley
61. C.J. Stroud
62. Zay Flowers
63. Chris Godwin
64. Xavier Worthy
65. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
66. Keenan Allen
67. Christian Watson
68. Brian Thomas Jr.
69. Rome Odunze
70. George Pickens |
| If Pickens does not end up as Brandon Aiyuk's teammate, then he could put up a monster season in Year 3. I'm pretty worried about Pittsburgh's offense, though. All of the Steelers (other than Najee Harris. This is feeling like another miserable Arthur Smith season . Please feel better soon, Jaylen Warren!) have been moving down my rankings. Pittsburgh played Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for the entire second preseason game and only put three points on the board! |
| If Aiyuk is traded to Pittsburgh, Pickens would project as a barely-usable Fantasy option. If I knew that Aiyuk was going to be a Steeler, I'd rank Pickens as a borderline top-100 pick. He'd be in the same range as DeAndre Hopkins and Ladd McConkey. |
| I recently moved two players into Tier 8 that had previously sat in the same range as McConkey. Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most impressive receiver that I have watched this preseason. Odunze's ascent feels inevitable and Caleb Williams looks locked and loaded to deliver a huge statistical season. Patience will likely be required with both of these rookie receivers, and neither may ever reach the top to their range of outcomes. Of course there is risk involved with betting on rookie receivers. The top to their range of outcomes is so exciting, though! |
| Hitting on these types of bets give you a real chance to put together a team that can win a Fantasy championship. And hey, if you're a believer in McConkey maybe you throw him in this tier. The same logic could apply. If you're a Chase Brown believer, this is the range to make sure that you get a chance to make that upside bet. There are a bunch of players that get drafted in the fifth and sixth rounds of Fantasy drafts that I have little interest in, so I often end up looking at a draft board where my top-ranked player (usually Jonathan Brooks) is way down the actual draft board. The aggressiveness that I choose to approach this part of the draft with usually depends on how I feel about the draft room. If it feels like a room where I can afford to let a player slip another round to try to gain the most possible value with each pick, and if the slipping player does not solve an immediate problem for my roster, then I let them slip. If I already have drafted Achane, I'm probably letting Brooks slip here. |
| Tier 9 |
71. Joe Mixon
72. Terry McLaurin
73. James Conner
74. Najee Harris
75. Alvin Kamara
76. Raheem Mostert
77. Jayden Daniels
78. Javonte Williams
79. Dak Prescott
80. Joe Burrow
81. Caleb Williams
82. Jake Ferguson
83. Rhamondre Stevenson
84. Tyjae Spears
85. Tony Pollard
86. Jayden Reed
87. Jordan Love
88. Kyler Murray
89. Jaylen Warren
90. Aaron Jones
91. Devin Singletary
92. D'Andre Swift
93. Joshua Palmer |
| |
| Last Wednesday's newsletter focused on sleepers. One of the categories that I placed players into was sleepers with "injury-contingent upside." You'll find some of those players sprinkled throughout the upcoming tiers. |
| The top tier that I created for injury-contingent sleepers was labeled the "Amethyst Tier." I like making tiers. |
| |
| Tier 10 |
94. Zamir White
95. Courtland Sutton
96. Ladd McConkey
97. Blake Corum
98. DeAndre Hopkins
99. Evan Engram
100. Brock Bowers
101. Zack Moss
102. Chase Brown
103. Gus Edwards
104. J.K. Dobbins
105. Trey Benson
106. Jaylen Wright
107. David Njoku |
| |
| Tier 11 |
108. Keon Coleman (wow this is higher than consensus? If you believe in Coleman's talent, you absolutely should be drafting him. I am skeptical, and I still have him above consensus because the preseason role has been so promising.)
109. Rashid Shaheed
110. Curtis Samuel (sad)
111. Hollywood Brown
112. Pat Freiermuth
113. Tyler Lockett
114. Darnell Mooney
115. Josh Downs
116. Jordan Addison
117. Austin Ekeler
118. Brian Robinson
119. Ezekiel Elliott
120. Chuba Hubbard
121. Zach Charbonnet
122. Bucky Irving
123. Ray Davis
124. Braelon Allen
125. Tyler Allgeier
126. Tyrone Tracy
127. Antonio Gibson
128. Kimani Vidal
129. Dontayvion Wicks
130. Brock Purdy
131. Jameson Williams
132. Brandin Cooks |
| Lots of bold names here, huh? This tier mostly reflects a difference in philosophy between how I'm drafting and how the public seems to. I want to get my hands on these premium handcuff lottery tickets. I'm never drafting the quarterbacks and tight ends in this range. Cole Kmet? Yuck! (He's actually looked really good this preseason, but the Bears seem to be set on giving Gerald Everett a large role and there's only one football to be spread among all of the Chicago pass-catching options.) |
| |
| Tier 12 |
133. Khalil Shakir
134. Xavier Legette
135. Romeo Doubs
136. Jerry Jeudy
137. DeMario Douglas
138. Jalen McMillan
139. Dallas Goedert
140. Luke Musgrave
141. Ben Sinnott
142. Adonai Mitchell
143. Demarcus Robinson (I'm wondering if Robinson is even worth drafting lately. I wonder if Jordan Whittington might cut into his snap share.)
144. Greg Dortch
145. Ja'Lynn Polk
146. Carson Steele
147. Sione Vaki
148. Jermaine Burton
149. Ricky Pearsall
150. Luke McCaffrey |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! |
| |
| | | | | NFL Preseason | | WNBA | The NFL Preseason comes to a close this Sunday. Watch as the Cardinals take on the Broncos for one last game before the regular season kicks off this Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Can A'ja's Aces score a win in Chicago? Or is the Sky their limit? Find out this Sunday at 12 PM ET as the Aces battle the Sky on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
