CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,929.84 -0.85%
Bitcoin (BTC): $62,503.74 -0.55%
Ether (ETH): $2,433.31 -0.78%
S&P 500: 5,695.94 -0.96%
Gold: $2,646.96 +0.14%
Nikkei 225: 38,937.54 -1%

A message from OKX

Bitcoin pulled back after China's stimulus plans fell short of expectations. Risk assets such as BTC have been buoyed over the last week by the prospect of a massive stimulus package from the People's Bank of China stirring some life into the country's economy. However the National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) briefing seemed to lack urgency or specifics, denting market sentiment. Bitcoin traded at around $62,500, about 0.5% lower in the last 24 hours. The broader digital asset market fell about 0.8%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index.

Ether ETFs in the U.S. saw no money flow in or out on Monday for only the second time since their listing in July. Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, enjoyed their highest inflows since Sept. 27, adding a net $235.2 million. Fidelity's FBTC led the gains with $103.7 million while BlackRock's IBIT garnered $97.9 million. In contrast, the nine ether ETFs registered zero flows in either direction. The only other time this occurred was Aug. 30. The figures underline the differing fortunes of BTC and ETH products in the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of nearly $18.75 billion since they listed in January, while their ether equivalents are $500 million in the red since becoming available in July.

Consensus among Polymarket bettors is divided over who will be identified as Satoshi Nakamoto on Tuesday's HBO documentary, "Money Electric: the Bitcoin Mystery." Odds climbed as high as 55% that the late Len Sassaman would be revealed as Bitcoin's elusive creator, but these have sunk to 7.5% following an interview with his widow in which she said he was not Satoshi. The overwhelming favorite choice on Polymarket is now "Other/Multiple", which carries 65% support. The leading individual candidate is Nick Szabo with 12.5%. The program will be screened at 02:00 UTC on Wednesday (9 p.m. Tuesday ET).

The general consensus that bitcoin moves in lockstep with the S&P 500 may be tested in the lead-up to the U.S. election as options market pricing points to diverging trends.

Bitcoin options listed on dominant crypto exchange Deribit have exhibited a noticeable bias for short-term calls relative to puts, capturing the U.S. election and its result, due Nov. 8, according to data tracked by analytics platform Block Scholes. Short-term options tied to Wall Street's benchmark equity index showed a bias for put options.

The divergence between bitcoin and S&P 500 options is "setting the stage for something big," according to Block Scholes' CEO and founder Eamonn Gashier.

"Either the strong positive correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is about to break and flip negative, or one of these markets is mispriced. The excitement lies in the uncertainty – are we on the brink of seeing Bitcoin decouple from equities, or are traders in one market about to get caught off-guard?" Gashier told CoinDesk.

- Omkar Godbole