First Mover: Bitcoin Falls as Covid Surges, ECB's Lagarde Takes Center Stage

October 29, 2020

Sponsored By:

By the CoinDesk Markets Team

Edited by Bradley Keoun

If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.

Bitcoin (BTC)

-1.1% $13,133

Ether (ETH)

-0.4% $387

(Price data as of Oct. 28 @11:09 UTC)

TODAY:

Price Point: Bitcoin was lower, even as stocks stabilized following Wednesday's sell-off.

Market Moves: The jolt of enthusiasm from bitcoin's ascent toward $14K was quickly doused by realism, and options traders see low probabilities of a new price record this year.

Bitcoin Watch: Price-chart patterns put resistance level at $13,880, support at $12,500, CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole writes.

What's Hot: Traders await European Central Bank decision, U.S. GDP report; Caitlin Long's Avanti wins Wyoming bank charter she pioneered, Bank of Canada digital currency progresses beyond proof-of-concept stage.

Price Point

Bitcoin was lower for a second day, even as traditional markets showed signs of stabilization following Wednesday's sell-off.

Cryptocurrency analysts looked for solace in bitcoin's October-to-date return, still at an impressive 22%, during a month when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of U.S. stocks has declined by 2.7%.

"The sell-off in equities and gold due to rising Covid infections and restrictive lockdowns had only a limited impact on the digital asset," Lennard Neo, head of research for the cryptocurrency-focused firm Stack Funds, wrote Thursday in a report.

In traditional markets, European stocks rose as traders awaited a decision from the European Central Bank, headed by President Christine Lagarde, on whether further monetary support is needed amid a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

U.S. equity futures pointed toward a higher open, just before a key government report expected to show that the world's largest economy grew about 30% in the third quarter – a somewhat context-less data point that's likely to do little beyond serving as an easy talking point for President Donald Trump's reelection campaign.

Market Moves

Just as bitcoin bulls were starting to salivate over the cryptocurrency's powerful rally over the past week toward $14,000, a sell-off in traditional markets has dragged prices back down.

Investors globally were rattled by reports of a resurgence in coronavirus cases. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that the country would implement tough new business restrictions, and French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to impose a national lockdown.

Such restrictions could crimp economic growth, theoretically a deflationary development, which could reduce demand for bitcoin in the short term as a hedge against higher consumer prices. There's also the possibility that some investors, seeing further turmoil ahead, decided to bulk up on cash. One of the easiest things to sell is bitcoin, which is still up 84% year-to-date, even after Wednesday's sell-off.

"It seems the pressure was too much," Mati Greenspan, founder of the foreign-exchange and cryptocurrency research firm Quantum Economics, told clients Wednesday.

As detailed in First Mover on Wednesday, analysts relying on price-chart patterns have identified few points of resistance along bitcoin's path from the hitherto-rarely-breached $14,000 psychological level to the all-time-high around $20,000, reached in 2017.

According to Greenspan, "$14,000 is a huge psychological barrier, and I would be delightedly flabbergasted if we were able to pass through it without first seeing a significant pullback."

Probability (left axis) of bitcoin being above $X (bottom axis) at maturity, implied from options market. (Skew.)

And as reported Thursday by CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole, bitcoin options traders are assigning a low probability that the cryptocurrency will end 2020 above $20,000.

The implied chances of prices above that level currently stand around 6%, according to the cryptocurrency data firm Skew.

“A below-10% probability of record highs by the year end means the market is unconcerned with that outcome,” Vishal Shah, an options trader and founder of Polychain Capital-backed derivatives exchange Alpha5 told Godbole in a Telegram chat.

Despite the sincerest wishes of bitcoin bulls, it would take a rally of more than 60% in the next eight weeks for prices to set a new record. It wouldn't be unprecedented: There have been eight times in the 11-year old cryptocurrency's recorded history where prices have rallied more than 50% or more in a two-month span.

It could be that traders are just being realistic.

“The options market is seemingly not getting carried away with the recent strong price momentum,” Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, said in a statement to CoinDesk. “If we extrapolate bitcoin’s price action and volatility of the past 90 days till December expiry, then bitcoin appears set to end the year between $14,000 to $15,000.”

Read More: Bitcoin’s Options Market Sees Just 6% Chance of $20K Before Year’s End

SPONSORED BY KAIKO

Kaiko is the premier cryptocurrency market data provider for professional traders, researchers, exchanges, fund managers, and custodians.

Our data services enable seamless connectivity to historical and live data feeds from 100+ spot and derivatives exchanges.

Learn More

Bitcoin Watch

Bitcoin daily price chart showing resistance and support levels. (TradingView)

Bitcoin's price rally has paused, with the top cryptocurrency by market value near $13,100, having reached 16-month highs above $13,800 during Wednesday's Asian trading hours.

Investors are rotating money out of stocks and into safe havens like the U.S. dollar and treasuries on concerns that Germany and France's new lockdown restrictions would torpedo Eurozone's fragile economic recovery.

Not just bitcoin, but almost every asset denominated in U.S. dollars has taken a beating in the past 24 hours or so. Markets saw similar but more violent action in March when recession fears triggered a global dash for cash.

Should the virus figures continue to rise, risk aversion will likely intensify, fueling a more profound decline in the cryptocurrency. However, it's possible that investors could buy the dips, with rising institutional adoption boosting the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects.

Besides, stock markets will likely stabilize, helping bitcoin regain poise if the ECB announces more monetary stimulus later Thursday. While the central bank is expected to maintain the status quo, it could lay the groundwork for additional stimulus in December. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said that the central bank could boost its pandemic bond-buying program by 400 billion euros ($470 billion) in December to counter deflationary pressures.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the immediate bias will remain bullish as long as prices are held above $12,500. On the higher side, the June 2019 high of $13,880 is the level to beat for the bulls.

– Omkar Godbole
Read More: Is Bitcoin’s Rally Overstretched? This Key Indicator Says No

Token Watch

Bitcoin (BTC): Winklevosses' Gemini cryptocurrency exchange allows purchasing and trading with euros.

Ripple (XRP): San Francisco-based payments firm plans to invest in blockchain money-transfer app MoneyTap, a joint venture with Japan's SBI Holdings.

Crypto.com Coin (CRO): Cryptocurrency-focused credit-card lender expands in Latin American market, hires former Visa exec Filomena Ruffa as general manager.

What's Hot

Fidelity's digital-asset division expands crypto custody service to Asia (CoinDesk)

Blockchain pioneer Caitlin Long's Avanti wins approval from Wyoming regulators for new banking charter (CoinDesk)

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says digital currency initiative is progressing beyond proof-of-concept stage toward launchable product (CoinDesk)

FTX crypto exchange launches bitcoin pairs for tokenized versions of top stocks Amazon, Apple, Tesla (CoinDesk)

Coinbase crypto exchange to launch Visa debit card in U.S. early next year (CoinDesk)

Former regulator who oversaw New York State's BitLicense development and more recently led New York Stock Exchange's regulatory division will now join crypto-friendly venture-capital firm Andreesen Horowitz (CoinDesk)

Analogs

Federal Reserve might be running low on ammunition to juice market and the economy (CNBC)

Jack Dorsey, Twitter CEO who also oversees payments-firm-turned-cryptocurrency-investor Square, grilled by U.S. Senator Ted Cruz over tweet platform's content controls (WSJ)

Lenders now telling U.S. mall owners to pay up on past-due mortgage bills (WSJ)

Chinese Communist Party set to detail 15-year economic growth plan (Bloomberg)

Tweet of the Day

Most Influential 2020: Cast Your Vote

Every year, CoinDesk recognizes the “Most Influential” people working to expand cryptocurrency and blockchain’s reach. It’s a list of the 10 outsized individuals who have gone the furthest and done the most.

In this most unusual year, we need your help determining who should be named as Most Influential. Check out the list of the top contenders and cast your vote by Oct. 31.

With the U.S. Election Day next week, much is at stake - including crypto policy over the next four years.

Like it or not, this election will matter for the crypto industry. Our latest limited-run newsletter, The State of Crypto: Election 2020 by regulatory reporter Nikhilesh De, aims to walk you through why.

At stake: Will new crypto products be approved or allowed to operate in the U.S.? Will regulators target more overseas exchanges and platforms like BitMEX? Will the U.S. launch a “digital dollar” or some other form of central bank digital currency?

These questions will come down to who takes the reins at the various financial regulators and government departments. Over the next several days, we map out the possible outcomes and introduce analysis of the candidates.

Our limited-run newsletter runs Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays at least until Election Day. Subscribe to The State of Crypto: Election 2020.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.

ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.

First Mover

A newsletter from CoinDesk

See Previous Editions

Copyright © 2020 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA

You can manage your preferences here or unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email.