CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,691.86 +0.76%
Bitcoin (BTC): $90,386.53 -1.21%
Ether (ETH): $3,107.30 -2.48%
S&P 500: 5,949.17 -0.6%
Gold: $2,568.54 +0.01%
Nikkei 225: 38,642.91 +0.28%

A message from Kraken

Bitcoin pared some of Thursday's losses during the European morning to trade above $90,000. BTC remains over 1% lower in the last 24 hours, a possible sign of profit-taking following its surge above $93,000 earlier in the week. The drop was catalyzed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments that damped hopes of swifter interest-rate cuts. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in prepared remarks at a Dallas conference. As of Friday, the market is pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from Thursday’s 83%. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader crypto market, is 0.66% higher.

Bitcoin ETFs saw $400 million of net outflows on Thursday, their third-highest loss since they listed in January. Fidelity's FBTC saw outflows of $179.2 million, Bitwise BITB saw $113.9 million being drained, Ark's ARKB bled $161. 7 million, while Grayscale's two products notched combined outflows of $74.9 million. Similar to the dip in the underlying asset, ETF outflows may be a sign of investors taking profits. BlackRock's IBIT saw inflows, gaining $126.5 million, continuing the trend of strong interest since Nov. 7. The only days to have seen larger bitcoin ETF outflows — May 1 and Nov. 4 — both signaled local bottoms before BTC returned to an upward trend.

XRP zoomed 17% in 24 hours to outperform bitcoin and other majors as the shifting U.S. regulatory climate supported growth in tokens previously hampered by the SEC's actions. XRP traded above 82 cents in early Asian trading hours Friday, extending seven-day gains to 50% and reaching levels last seen in June 2023. The jump came as 18 U.S. states filed to sue the SEC and commissioners, including Chairman Gary Gensler, accusing them of unconstitutional overreach of the crypto industry. The speculative optimism among traders is that a crypto-friendly Trump administration could benefit tokens linked to U.S.-based companies, such as Ripple Labs and Uniswap, as the firms are more involved in boosting value for token holders.

As bitcoin's price struggles to secure a foothold above $90,000, developments in the Deribit-listed options market tied to the cryptocurrency resemble patterns that foreshadowed the recent slide in Trump Media shares.

The pattern is in the implied probability distribution. That represents markets' expectations for the underlying asset's direction and is derived from options prices at different strike values and expiration dates. It shows the probabilities traders assign to the asset reaching different price levels.

The implied probability distribution now shows a "left shift," according to data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin, suggesting that market participants see a higher probability of BTC trading at lower prices from here.

A similar left shift was seen in the DJT options market before the shares tumbled recently. The stock price has halved to $27 in just over two weeks, according to charting platform TradingView. DJT surged to a high of $54 at the end of October as markets priced in a potential victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5.

A message from Kraken

- Omkar Godbole