June 7, 2024

Bitcoin traders set a record for futures positions, with open interest surpassing $37.7 billion. The previous record of just under $37 billion was set in March, when bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $73,000. The jump comes a day after spot bitcoin ETFs extended their net inflows streak to 18 days, also a record. The long-short ratio in BTC futures surpassed 1, meaning there are more positions betting on the price rising than declining. BTC is currently priced at around $71,340, an increase of 0.5% in the last 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), has dipped by around 0.2%.

Bitcoin could be primed for a surge to $83,000, according to analysis by 10x Research. The breakout is contingent on BTC moving above $72,000 to complete an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern in which an asset experiences three price troughs with the middle one being the deepest. This pattern suggests it is "only a matter of time" before the BTC price reaches a new high, 10x founder Markus Thielen said. A breakout above $72,000, a mere 1% climb above its current price of around $71,300, may hinge on U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release at 08:30 ET. Weak data may strengthen the case for Fed interest-rate cuts, adding to upward momentum in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Health-care company Semler Scientific, which has previously extended its corporate strategy to buying bitcoin, said on Thursday it is purchasing $17 million worth of BTC and preparing to raise $150 million so it can buy more. The company's 828 bitcoin were acquired for $57 million and are now worth $59 million, according to market data from CoinDesk Indices. Collectively, publicly listed companies hold 308,442 BTC worth approximately $21.8 billion on their balance sheets, according to bitcointreasuries.net. Semler's announcement in late May that it was purchasing $40 million in bitcoin sent its stock up 25%. SMLR shares have risen just over 3% in pre-market trading. 

The bitcoin price has its sights set on a new record high having rallied above $70,000 this week. The advance appears distinctly different from its last surge to a record, in March.

Open interest-weighted funding rates are well below the highs seen in March, according to data on Coingecko. This indicates a far less frothy market than then, and thus one less prone to a dramatic correction, or sharp drop.

The annualized three-month futures basis (premium) in bitcoin on exchanges like Binance, OKX and Deribit ranged between 10% and 13%, significantly below March highs above 25%, according to Velo Dat, which also suggests the absence of speculative fervor.

"We can clearly see that the futures basis is much lower than around peak positioning and the underlying OI buildup is rather stable for BTC," Greg Magdini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said.