CoinDesk 20 Index: 3,798.44 -4.59%
Bitcoin (BTC): $101,730.63 -3.45%
Ether (ETH): $3,313.36 +0.36%
S&P 500: 6,086.37 +0.61%
Gold: $2,745.22 -0.49%
Nikkei 225: 39,958.87 +0.79%

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies fell after Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a proxy for institutional activity, denied reports of listing futures tied to XRP and SOL. An earlier leak on the website of CME showing regulated XRP and Solana futures could start trading on Feb. 10 pending regulatory approval was an “error,” a representative of the company told CoinDesk. BTC traded either side of $102,000 throughout the European morning, a drop of around 3% in the last 24 hours. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, is over 4% lower, with SOL and DOGE leading the losses, both down by more than 5%.

BTC's outlook is positive and its price should remain elevated throughout 2025, Deutsche Bank said in a report. The German bank cites the favorable regulatory and political backdrop in the U.S., growing institutional adoption and looser Federal Reserve monetary policy. President Trump did not sign any crypto-related executive orders during his first day in office, but Deutsche Bank says further clarity on a strategic BTC reserve could be forthcoming this quarter. The Trump administration's support for crypto means the market's current bull run should continue, and presidential backing is key for the "continuation of crypto's golden era," analyst Marion Laboure wrote. The appointment of Paul Atkins as new SEC chair is also indicative of a shift toward an "innovation-friendly approach," according to the report.

Ethereum layer-2 protocols are processing transactions faster than ever, with Coinbase's BASE at the forefront of this progress. The cumulative transaction throughput for layer 2s has skyrocketed to 29.64 million gas units per second, the highest pace ever recorded, according to data from growthepie.xyz. Layer-2 protocols are scaling solutions built on top of primary blockchains like Ethereum, and are designed to handle a higher volume of transactions at lower cost. The metric of millions of gas units per second reflects the number of transactions the network processes each second. This surge in throughput comes amid concerns that sustained demand for layer 2 solutions could quickly exhaust available capacity.

A key indicator suggests that bitcoin, currently above $100,000, resembles a coiled spring poised to release energy in either direction.

The indicator is the rolling 60-day price range, representing the variation in maximum and minimum price ticks in percentage terms. A tighter range implies stable market conditions characterized by range play and demand-supply equilibrium.

Bitcoin's 60-day range is now tighter than the current trading range, according to analysis by Glassnode. Historically, such patterns have presaged volatility explosions.

"All of these instances have occurred prior to a significant burst of volatility, with the majority being in early bull markets or prior to late-stage capitulations in bear cycles," Glassnode said in a weekly report.

Volatility is mean-reverting, that is, it tends to oscillate around its lifetime average. Rapid price swings typically follow a low-volatility period and vice versa.It is also price agnostic. Higher volatility means price fluctuations will become bigger and potentially more unpredictable. It does not say whether prices will surge or slump.

- Omkar Godbole