First Mover: The Price Average is the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin Bulls, Analyst Says

March 5, 2021

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond

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By the CoinDesk Markets Team

Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn

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Bitcoin (BTC)

-3.8% $47,434

Ether (ETH)

-5.4% $1,476

(Price data as of Mar. 5 @11:30 UTC)

Good morning. Here's what we're writing about:

Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker, at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests:

Ria Bhutoria, director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets

MARKET MOVES by OMKAR GODBOLE

The Price Average is the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin Bulls, Analyst Says

While bitcoin can suffer deeper drawdowns due to traditional market instability, its broader bullish trend would remain valid as long as historically strong chart support is held intact.

"The 21-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) is the level to defend for the bulls," trader and technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe told CoinDesk. "The bias remains bullish as long as the SMA support is intact."

An SMA is an arithmetic moving average calculated by adding recent prices and dividing the tally by the number of periods. SMAs are trend-following, lagging indicators and often act as support and resistance levels.

The 21-week SMA acted as a price floor during the previous bull market, as seen below.

Bitcoin's weekly chart (Source: TradingView)

The cryptocurrency repeatedly found dip demand (marked by arrows) around the 21-week SMA throughout the rally from $300 to $19,783 seen in the October 2015-December 2017 period.

If history is a guide, deeper pullbacks, if any, could run out of steam around the 21-week SMA this year. The technical line is currently located at $32,240, while bitcoin is changing hands near $46,500.

A continued rise in the U.S. Treasury yields could push the dollar higher, sending bitcoin toward the SMA support.

One cannot rule out that possibility as Federal Reserve's President Jerome Powell defied expectations on Thursday by expressing little concern regarding the recent spike in yields. That has left the doors open for a further rally in yields and an extension of last week's risk aversion.

The dollar strengthened, while bitcoin and stocks fell in the seven days to Feb. 28, as the U.S. 10-year yield surged to a 12-month high of 1.6% and investors priced in higher odds of an early unwinding of the Federal Reserve stimulus.

The yield remains elevated near 1.6% at press time, and the dollar index is hovering at a three-month high of 92.00. Also, European stocks and the U.S. stock futures are flashing red.

Both bitcoin and stocks may find some relief later today if the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due at 13:30 UTC paints a gloomy picture of the labor market, sending yields lower.

--Omkar Godbole

Read the original story here:

The Price Average is the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin Bulls, Analyst Says

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OTHER MARKET NEWS

BitMEX Plans to Add Spot Trading, Brokerage, Custody Services: Report

Embattled cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX's new CEO said the firm is planning to add spot trading, brokerage, and custody services to its offerings.

Alexander Hoptner, who joined the exchange in December, said Thursday he is planning on transforming the exchange and expanding business operations by adding three news services, according to a Bloomberg report.

Prior to joining the firm, Hoptner worked for the German exchange Börse Stuttgart. In his new role, he plans to transform the crypto firm by amending relationships with regulators and expanding business operations from spot trading to brokerage and custody services.

“I was coming from the regulated and classical world. I have a lot of touchpoints with the regulators already…Now I’m working on the crypto side and bringing the crypto side to the regulated world,” said Hoptner.

BitMEX announced Thursday the appointment of auditing veteran Stephan Lutz as its new chief financial officer who will take charge of financial growth, business expansion, and profitability.

In October 2020, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and federal prosecutors charged BitMEX with facilitating unregistered trading and other violations.

As reported by CoinDesk Wednesday, BitMEX founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes, who is currently in Singapore, could surrender to U.S. authorities next month.

Hoptner declined to comment on the criminal charges against the BitMEX co-founders, said the publication.

--Tanzeel Akhtar

Read the original story here:

BitMEX Plans to Add Spot Trading, Brokerage, Custody Services: Report

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Losers:

The CoinDesk 20 filters from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and digital assets to define a core group of 20. These assets constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges.

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ICYMI

In case you missed it, here is yesterday's episode of First Mover:

The Fed’s Jerome Powell to Speak on US Economy; Bitcoin Lower

Saying she's alarmed by the size of the U.S. debt, pro-crypto Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis discusses her congressional agenda; and a markets check with Spanish economist Daniel Lacalle.

Introducing Coin Toss, debating the future of money on CoinDesk TV

From the world leader in crypto news and events, the all-new CoinDesk TV covers the rapidly evolving world of digital finance and its role in the global economy.

Hosted by CoinDesk Podcasts Managing Editor Adam B. Levine, Coin Toss sets the stage for debate between guests with opposing views on policy and regulation, privacy and data integrity, fraud and crime and more.

Watch Coin Toss Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. ET on YouTube or CoinDesk.com.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.

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