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| Thursday, April 29, 2021 |
| It's finally here! The 86th annual National Football League Player Selection Meeting is upon us. Sure, most people call it the NFL Draft, but I'm a purist, so I'm going to call it by its formal name and that's the event's formal name. |
| Actually, I just realized that writing out "National Football League Player Selection Meeting" over and over for this entire newsletter could get slightly cumbersome, so let's go with NFL Draft. |
| With the draft just hours away, we're going all draft today in the newsletter: We've got our final mock draft, we've got some bold predictions and we're going to answer some burning questions. |
| By the way, if your first question about the draft is "How do I watch it tonight?" We went ahead and answered that question here (It kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC and NFL Network). |
| If you're feeling slightly OCD today and want to keep track of the entire draft order from pick 1 to pick 259, you can do that by clicking here. If you want to check out all the draft coverage we've produced this offseason at CBS Sports, feel free to click here. |
| Alright, I've spammed you with enough links, let's get to the rundown. As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or just sign them up yourself and tell them they've been drafted into my newsletter club. Everyone loves being in a club. To sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share the link. |
| 1. Today's show: Burning questions for the draft |
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| It's the final podcast before the start of the NFL Draft, which can only mean one thing: We're going to address all the final burning questions heading into the first round. |
| For instance, will the Teddy Bridgewater trade change what the Broncos are going to do with the ninth overall pick? Which team is most likely to trade up to target a quarterback? What will the 49ers do with the third overall pick? |
| To answer those burning questions, Will Brinson was joined by Josh Edwards. During today's episode, Josh also made a list of guys who could end up falling in the draft. One notable guy who could take a tumble in the first round is Virginia Tech corner Caleb Farley, who recently underwent back surgery. Edwards also thinks that Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could fall in the first round. |
| "Parsons is a top 10-caliber talent but there are some concerns emerging from his interviews with teams," Edwards said. "He is not going to fall out of the first round but do not be surprised if he is taken a little later than expected." |
| To listen to the rest of today's show -- and to follow the podcast -- be sure to click here. |
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| 2. Ryan Wilson's final mock draft |
| Ryan Wilson has done so many mock drafts this offseason that I've completely lost count of how many he's done. If he told me the number was 700, I would believe it. I mean, I'm 90% sure Wilson hasn't seen his family in three months. |
| The good news for Wilson (and his family) is that they might actually get to hang out some point soon and that's because Ryan just completed his final 2021 mock draft. The biggest twist in his final mock draft is that Wilson has the Patriots trading up into the top 10 to grab a quarterback. He also has the Broncos taking a corner since they apparently no longer need a QB now that they've traded for Teddy Bridgewater. |
| With that in mind, let's check out the top 10 picks in Wilson's final mock: |
| 1. Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) 2. Jets: QB Zach Wilson (BYU) 3. 49ers: QB Mac Jones (Alabama) 4. Falcons: TE Kyle Pitts (Florida) 5. Bengals: WR Ja'Marr Chase (LSU) 6. Dolphins: WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) 7. Lions: OL Penei Sewell (Oregon) 8. Patriots (New England trades with Carolina): QB Justin Fields (Ohio State) 9. Broncos: CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) 10. Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) |
| If you want to see how the rest of the first round plays out, and trust me, you do, then you're going to want to click here. If you feel like Ryan Wilson hates your favorite team and you'd rather read someone else's mock draft, then you can click here to check out Pete Prisco's final mock and here to check out NFL Insider Jason La Canfora's one-and-only mock. You can also check out the final mock draft from Josh Edwards by clicking here. |
| 3. Bold predictions for the NFL Draft |
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| I'm not going to lie, I have no idea what's going to happen in the draft tonight. I mean, I know the Jaguars are going to take Trevor Lawrence, but after that, I expect all hell to break loose. Will the Jets take Zach Wilson? Probably, but this is the Jets we're talking about, so there's a 70% chance they mess something up. |
| Who will the 49ers take? That's a fantastic question and we're going to attempt to answer that in the first of our five bold predictions for the first round. Cody Benjamin was feeling extremely bold this morning, so we let him handle the bold predictions and here are the five boldest ones he came up with: |
| 1. 49ers won't take Mac Jones. "Not sure if this qualifies as "bold" these days... but the drop-off from Jones to Justin Fields or Trey Lance in terms of high-efficiency traits is either minimal or nonexistent. Meanwhile, the drop-off in dynamic athleticism from Fields or Lance to Jones is substantial. It only makes sense that San Francisco will take the potential home run over the supposedly assured base hit." |
| 2. The Patriots get a new QB. "Whether it's finding a sliding prospect at No. 15, going all in for a move into the top 10, dropping back or dealing back in for Davis Mills, and/or landing a veteran (e.g. Jimmy Garoppolo), they need at least one more body under center." |
| 3. Stanford QB Davis Mills will get drafted in first round. "Someone (the Bears? Patriots? Washington?) can talk themselves into his size and arm to swoop in early." |
| 4. Chargers will trade into the top 10. "The Chargers' first priority is protecting Justin Herbert, and that means top tackles Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater will be in their sights. If one or both slide past the Bengals at No. 5, they will assuredly be on the phones. The question is where they try to move: No. 7 (Detroit), No. 8 (Panthers), No. 10 (Cowboys)? It just feels as if they're primed to do what it takes for a bookend." |
| 5. Steelers will not take a running back at 24th overall. "There's no doubt they want a running back, perhaps even in the first. But unless you're sold that Najee Harris or Javonte Williams or Travis Etienne is singularly a game-changing star-in-the-making, what on earth dictates that you address the position at No. 24 rather than after a slight trade back, even just out of the first? The Steelers are regularly in the postseason mix because they often draft smartly. And odds are there will be way too many starting-caliber offensive linemen or edge rushers or even linebackers to pass up in this spot." |
| If you want to read a more in-depth explanation for each of those predictions, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL Insider Notes |
| Last year, CBS Sports didn't send anyone to the draft and that was mostly because it was held in Roger Goodell's basement. This year, we'll have multiple reporters on-site, including CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones who is currently on the ground in Cleveland, where he's getting the latest news from his sources around the NFL. |
| With just hours to go until the start of the draft, here's the latest on what Jones has learned: |
| Justin Fields won't fall out of the top 10. "If Fields is available after the Bengals pick at No. 5, I think the Bears or Patriots could move up to get him. Sources have told me the Bears "badly" want to move up from pick No. 20, and the only reason you'd give away that much future draft capital is for a franchise quarterback." Bengals will likely go with a wide receiver. "The tide has been shifting in favor of Ja'Marr Chase to Cincinnati. I firmly believe their best option is Penei Sewell, but sources are leaning Chase to Cincy." Panthers could make a move. "The Panthers very clearly want to trade back, and I think they'd make a deal with the Patriots at 15 to still get a player with a first-round grade. I won't rule them out on taking Fields at No. 8, but I think if they stay there, the pick could very well be South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn." |
| For the rest of Jones' notes heading into the draft, be sure to click here. |
5. NFL Draft best bets
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| The only thing more exciting than watching the NFL Draft is making money while watching the NFL Draft and you can actually do that this year if you live in a state that allows to you to gamble on draft props. If you don't live in a state that allows you to gamble on draft props, then I would take that as a sign that you need to move. |
| Our props today are coming from gambling expert Todd Fuhrman (who used to run the sports book at Caesars Palace) and SportsLine's R.J. White, who has won way more money than me over the years. Both of these guys made a list of their five favorite props and I'm going to share two of them with you. Their props are behind a paywall over at SportsLine.com, so if I'm not around tomorrow, it's because I got fired for sharing something behind a paywall. |
| From Fuhrman: |
| Draft position for Trey Lance: OVER 6.5 (+120 -- Bet $100 to win $120) First defensive player drafted: Jaycee Horn (+215) |
| From White: |
| Chargers exact position of first pick: Offensive lineman (+110) First RB drafted: Travis Etienne (+180) |
| From Breech: |
| Draft slot of first kicker selected: UNDER 189.5 (-115). This is my favorite prop of the draft. The first kicker has gone off the board at 167 or earlier in each of the past five years so I'll be shocked if the under doesn't hit again here. |
| To see the rest of White's and Fuhrman's favorite prop bets, you'll have to head over to SportsLine, which you can do by clicking here for White and here for Fuhrman. If you're interested in getting a SportsLine subscription, which I would highly recommend for anyone who loves to gamble on sports, be sure to click here. |
| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Trade grades in the Teddy Brigewater deal. You know it's draft day when news of the Teddy Bridgewater trade gets bumped all the way down into the roundup section. If you missed it yesterday, the Panthers shipped Bridgewater off to Denver in exchange for a sixth-round pick. If you want to know which team got the better end of the deal, be sure to click here. Saints trying to move into the top 10. In what may or may not come as a surprise, the team that tries to trade up every year is trying to trade up again. According to multiple reports, the Saints are looking to make a monstrous trade that could move them into the top 10, however, it's unclear who they're targeting. The Saints have made 10 draft trades since 2016, so it won't be too surprising if they make another one. Ravens interested in Julio Jones. Earlier this week, we found out the Falcons were taking calls on Julio Jones and as it turns out, one of those teams that made a call for the receiver was the Baltimore Ravens. Although the Ravens could use Jones, it doesn't appear that the two teams came anywhere close to making a deal.
Seahawks say that Russell Wilson was never available. Two months after Russell Wilson released a list of teams that he wanted to be traded to, the Seahawks have finally decided to comment on the situation. Both Pete Carroll and John Schneider met with the media on Wednesday and both men downplayed the situation. According to Schneider, the Seahawks "never actively negotiated" with anyone. Also, Carroll said that Wilson is in a "great place," which is interesting but only because we haven't heard that from Wilson himself. I feel like the drama isn't quite over here. |
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| 7. The Kicker: Tom Brady has been in the NFL longer than some draft prospects have been alive |
| If Tom Brady watches the draft tonight, he's probably going to be feeling extra old and that's because there are 14 prospects in this year's draft class WHO WEREN'T EVEN BORN when Brady's career started. |
| Brady's career unofficially started on April 16, 2000 when the Patriots selected him with the 199th overall pick in the draft that year. Although I'm pretty sure I watched that draft on television, you know who didn't? TREY LANCE and that's because he was born May 9, 2020. |
| Brady suited up for his first game on Sept. 3, 2000, and you know who didn't watch it? KYLE PITTS OR PENEI SEWELL, because they didn't EVEN EXIST YET. Pitts was born on Oct. 6, 2000 while Sewell was born three days later on Oct. 9. For the full list of prospects who weren't born when Brady's career started, be sure to click here. |
| I originally made a note to include this fact in today's newsletter because I wanted Brady to feel old, but I feel like it has kind of backfired, because now I feel old. I hate feeling old. |
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