If you have to actually say you’re definitely going to win the Premier League this year, maybe you’re losing the firm grip on it you once had. Maybe even the most well-oiled of machines can break down. Maybe Santa Claus is real.

“Our feeling today is we’re going to win the Premier League,” barked Pep Guardiola after Manchester City’s third successive draw last weekend and most were still convinced. Yet the 1-0 defeat by Aston Villa in midweek forced a few more doubters to cross the bridge to join Gary Neville in Camp Arsenal. The meekness with which City collapsed in the face of Unaiball resembled the Mark Hughes era more than the all-conquering, all-passing, all-pressing behemoth we’ve all got to know. Three shots, City? Three? That’s ridiculous.

Yet Pep isn’t panicking, choosing instead to double down, and fair play to him. He’s got every right to do so as a treble winner and a certified managerial great at the tender age of 52. He says he’s “still in love” with his squad, even if at this precise moment it comprises about nine actual treble-winning stars, two ill-fitting midfield summer signings and somewhere, in a shed at the bottom of the garden trying to remember what a football is, Kalvin Phillips. And yes, they’ve got injuries and they’ll all be back at some stage to reignite the inevitable title charge. But what happens if Kevin de Bruyne and Rodri fly the Millennium Falcon back to Alderaan and find it’s no longer there?

A fascinating test awaits what’s left of Pep’s beloved boys in a visit to Kenilworth Road on Sunday. Luton haven’t quite turned their home patch into a graveyard for the big clubs, but they’ve given them all a scare. They ought to have taken all three points against Liverpool, one from Tottenham and at least one from Arsenal on Tuesday. A capacity of less than 11,000 has been no barrier to “the Kenny” and its fabled “cauldron” producing some of the Premier League’s most watchable games this season. At least the ground is attracting headlines for footballing reasons rather than that entrance to the away end. Yes we KNOW it’s a house.

“At the moment we are not the best team in the world because we are not getting results,” sniffed Pep in his pre-match press conference before taking the feline analogy route, obviously. “For a long time, we’ve lived like a cat [strokes head] and [known] how good we are. We need to say: ‘Guys this business – it’s terrible’. You are unbeatable and then, oh my God, you cannot win one game – from nothing.” So what price, then, for Rob Edwards’ close-knit band of brothers shocking City on Sunday? It’s a long shot for obvious budgetary reasons. There remains a knowing look in the eyes of everyone who dares doubt Guardiola; it’s still hard to believe this is nothing more than a blip.

“I felt like booing myself” – Roy Hodgson, there, apologising to Crystal Palace fans for jeering him and expressing regret for not joining in. Yes, Roy!

Ah, I see we are at that point in the cycle where Spurs have already been top of the Premier League after some easy fixtures early on and fluking results against the one big team they’ve played but are now consistently playing nice football and losing whilst the manager helplessly claims he is frustrated at Spurs’ lack of ruthlessness. It seems to come around earlier and earlier every year (also see Everton playing well and looking like a coherent team with a plan so they can avoid relegation). I assume Ryan Mason is still on staff and ready to take over in the Spring?” – Noble Francis.

Why don’t Spurs do dog walking? Because they can’t hold on to a lead. Also, on the canine theme: how much is Udogie in the window, the one with the dodgy backpass?” – David Fisk (and no other frustrated comedians).

While Aston Villa are rightly getting plaudits for their on-field achievements, it’s an off-field development that’s interested me most recently. They recently announced a tie-up with Real Unión de Irun, in the third tier of Spanish football, which is initially a bit of a head-scratcher until you realise that Unai Emery’s family owned the club previously; his father, grandfather and uncle are former Unionistas. They’re a club I first learned of while reading about Steve Bloomer, the former England international who managed the club. Unión won the Copa del Rey three times in a decade (1918, 1924, 1927) back when it was the de facto national championship, and have barely had a sniff of glory since. If history repeats itself, Aston Villa fans should get ready for a heady few years, followed by a long spell of remembering how good they used to be” – Ed Taylor.

Big Website journalist Ben Bloom, decries the use of the word ‘Spursy’ as ‘yawningly dull’. Since it’s frequently dropped into a certain tea timely email, he obviously mustn’t be one the 1,057 faithful / easily pleased (delete as applicable). Though, on second thoughts … “ – Simon Mazier.

VAR doesn’t need ‘rizz’ (yesterday’s Football Daily): it needs competence, consistency and communication. And a bit of common sense” – David Morgans.

Send any letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. Today’s letter o’ the day winner is … Ed Taylor, who gets a copy of Pretty Polly: The History of the Football Shirt, published by Pitch Publishing. Visit their brilliant football book store here.

How do you like that “crisis”? The apparently perpetually troubled Manchester United have swept the board in the Premier League’s November gongs, with Harry Maguire (player), Erik ten Hag (manager) and Alejandro Garnacho (goal) all honoured.

A group of MPs have urged the FA to amend its policies on transgender inclusion in the women’s game, accusing the governing body of “turning a blind eye” to the issue.

Tottenham challenged pundits to find new adjectives for “Spursy” by chucking away another lead and losing at home to West Ham. “We’ve a long way to go as a team and today is further evidence of that,” sighed Ange Postecoglou.

Mikel Arteta is going to keep on showing his emotions. Oh yes!

The Saudi Pro League says it would welcome Lionel Messi to its reputation-laundering project ever-expanding league. “If he decides next season that he wants to come here, we will be happy to welcome him,” teased the league’s chief shill suit, Michael Emenalo.

And a petition has been started in Grimsby calling for Boris Johnson to be banned from wearing the Grimsby Town bobble hat the former PM sported going into the Covid inquiry this week. Petition organiser John Dale accused Johnson of wearing the hat “to add lustre and glamour to his own shattered life. He is also bringing Grimsby into serious disrepute. This petition asks that Johnson stops wearing the hat and adopts a hat more suited to his lowly status. Eg MUFC.”

Liverpool have a 12.30pm kick-off against Crystal Palace on Saturday so, naturally, Jürgen Klopp is in a jolly mood. How did he feel about potentially going top? “Nobody became champion because they were top of the table at 2.15 on matchday 16.” OK. What about the intense battle between the top five teams? “I couldn’t be less interested in that.” What about City? “It looks a bit unusual that City are not first, second. Arsenal are doing extremely well. We are doing not too bad. Aston Villa are super strong, pretty impressive performance last game to be honest. United … whatever. I’m not following it really … for sure I forgot somebody, not on purpose … what can I say?”

The weekend is upon us, and here are the usual things to look out for in the Premier League. Ten of them, as per.

Jamie Jackson analyses Manchester City’s rare state of confusion and their midfield muddle.

Xabi Alonso gets his chat on with Andy Brassell about thriving in Germany, Bayer Leverkusen’s potential and being a proud Basque.

Leeds’s teenage prodigy Archie Gray gets his chat on with Ross Heppenstall about his famous footballing family, combining GCSEs with breaking into Marcelo Bielsa’s squad and the importance of being versatile.

Jonathan Wilson turns his attention closer to home, and his heart, by bemoaning Sunderland’s failure to acquire a proven striker and analysing the fallout from Tony Mowbray’s departure.

Grimsby chairman Jason Stockwood on why succession planning is essential, whether you’re at the top of the Premier League or middle of League Two.

And Graham Ruthven previews the MLS Cup final between Los Angeles FC and Columbus Crew.

Pep Guardiola’s talk of pets reminded us of the Anfield Cat. Here it is making a run for it in October 2016 before Liverpool v Manchester United. It could have slept soundly on the pitch – a dull match ended 0-0.