Good morning. Israel accuses Iran of violating a ceasefire, but Tehran denies the claim. President Trump continues to heap pressure on the Federal Reserve. And a diamond thief wasn’t quite as clever as he thought. Listen to the day’s top stories.

There’s a fragile truce in place, with each side accusing the other of launching missiles within hours of Donald Trump declaring it. The ceasefire, which Trump is trying to enforce, followed an extraordinary period in which Tehran retaliated against a US strike by launching a well-telegraphed attack on an American air base in Qatar. What’s next? Well, no one seems to know the whereabouts of Iran’s 400-plus kilograms of near-bomb-grade uranium.

Global stocks trimmed gains and oil pared some of its losses after Israel’s threat to strike back. Benchmark crude had earlier dropped below the level of June 12, the day before Israel started attacking Iran. But for the longer-term outlook, equities look set to outperform as investors dial up more risk.

In corporate news, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has started selling the chipmaker’s stock, his first transactions under a plan that allows him to offload up to $865 million worth by year’s end. Starbucks said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global. And Northern Trust said it plans to remain a standalone company following an approach from Bank of New York Mellon about a possible merger.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House committee today and is expected to defend holding interest rates until at least September. Trump continued with his pressure campaign, saying he hopes Congress “really works” Powell over and argued rates should be “at least two to three points lower.”

NATO leaders meet today in The Netherlands as Secretary General Mark Rutte tries to prevent others from following Spain in breaking ranks over a 5% spending target. Trump, who has consistently pushed the military alliance to boost defense spending, is expected to attend. Read our explainer on how Trump’s spurning of allies is transforming NATO.

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Deep Dive: Autos and the Tariff Fallout

Amid the uncertainty surrounding auto tariffs, SMT Automation revenue has dropped by 40% in the first quarter and the company has laid off workers. Photographer: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

President Trump’s shifting stances on trade and tariffs have upended the planning of many firms that supply parts and equipment to big automakers.

• Changes like the president’s move to reverse incentives for clean technology including electric vehicles, have also left suppliers grappling with sunk costs.
• As long as the tariff outlook remains cloudy, the pain is likely to persist with companies reining in their investments and cutting jobs while adopting a wait-and-see approach.
• But Trump is betting the impact will be short-lived and the tariffs will push more companies to add production and workers in the US. Then again, some companies have decided they’d rather leave North America than deal with the constant flux.
• Read how the trade and tariff talks are playing out ahead of Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline to reach deals.

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The Big Take

Soldiers of the German 45th Armoured Brigade at a ceremonial roll-call in Vilnius in May. Photographer: Paulius Peleckis/Getty Images

A Russian attack on NATO is no longer unthinkable and the military alliance’s chief suggested Moscow may be in a position to consider such an assault within five years. Bloomberg Economics modelled how it could play out—and what it would cost.

Opinion

Why is the globe’s greatest military alliance so often in crisis? US presidents have always been skeptical of having to protect Europe, but Trump takes it to a new level, Hal Brands writes. But it’s hardly the first time NATO has been at risk of falling apart.

Before You Go

Tiffany’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York. Source: Bloomberg

Not such sleight of hand. Yaorong Wan pleaded guilty in NYC to stealing $260,000 in diamond rings, using “sleight-of-hand” tricks at Tiffany’s flagship and pocketing a ring at Cartier a week later. He was previously wanted for a $330,000 diamond theft in Korea and was a suspect in jewelry heists in three other US states.

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