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Donald Trump told NBC on Thursday that the EU and Canada would receive letters with their new tariff rates “today or tomorrow”. Overnight, the US president posted Canada’s letter on social media, announcing a general 35% tariff. No sign of the letter to the EU, for now.

In today’s edition:

- Macron and Starmer's migration deal
- EU’s Israel options
- Farmers will be back
- DG CNECT chief stays on

Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer unveiled a long-awaited “one in, one out” migration deal on Thursday, and put the European Commission in a bind.

Southern member states, including Italy, Spain, Malta, Cyprus, and Greece, had written to the EU executive, warning against bilateral migration pacts with the UK. They fear being left to deal with the human consequences as Britain ships asylum-seekers back to France, only for them to ricochet south under EU asylum rules.

But now migrants arriving in the UK via small boat will be “detained and returned to France in short order”, Starmer said. And for every person who is deported or sent back, another person "with ties to the UK" will be allowed to come into the country from France.

The scheme will launch in the coming weeks as a pilot, though full details remain under wraps. Macron said it will be signed “as soon as legal verification procedures have been completed, including those involving the European Union”.

The Commission has maintained strategic ambiguity in recent weeks, trying to avoid direct comment on the UK-France rapprochement. But it’s not clear how long the Berlaymont can go on ignoring the bloc’s north-side divide.

Last year, France’s interior minister and his German counterpart drafted a letter urging Brussels to pursue an EU-UK migration pact. The missive was never sent, though both ministers have been vocal about deepening migration cooperation with London. Meanwhile, Mediterranean countries maintain their long-standing scepticism.

On Thursday, as the long-rumoured deal became a reality, a Commission spokesperson was still repeating the executive’s usual line – that it is “working with France and the UK” as well as other EU member states, to support solutions “compatible with the spirit and the letter of EU law”. Is the Macron-Starmer plan one of those solutions? The Commission did not say.

Angry farmers are gearing up for another showdown in Brussels on 16 July, targeting proposed cuts to EU farm subsidies and the Commission’s plan to roll agriculture and cohesion funding into national “partnerships” run by member states.

The protests, organised by European farmers' groups, will coincide with the Commission’s unveiling of its first set of proposals for the EU’s next long-term budget. A second batch of proposals is expected in September. Here are five key things we know so far about the Commission’s budget overhaul.

EU ambassadors are set to discuss today an options paper outlining possible measures against Israel, drafted by the bloc’s diplomatic service and reported by Euractiv’s Alex Brzozowski last weekend.

The paper – seen by Euractiv – now lists up to ten options, including a full or partial suspension of the EU-Israel trade pact, sanctions on Israeli ministers, military personnel or extremist settlers, trade restrictions, an arms embargo, and a suspension of scientific and other cooperation. Most of the proposed steps require unanimity and are unlikely to advance as member states remain deeply divided.

Brussels had initially said it hoped the pressure of the process would help improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. With a Gaza aid deal struck by the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and Israel on Wednesday, some EU diplomats now say this could temporarily diffuse the discussion over whether Brussels should follow through with measures when EU foreign ministers meet next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, 27 former EU ambassadors have written an open letter to pressure the heads of the European institutions to pause the bloc's trade preferences and Horizon research cooperation with Israel, whether or not a cease-fire in Gaza is soon reached.

After long touting plans to use foreign aid in service of its own interests – rather than merely fighting poverty – the Commission is putting its money where its tweets are.

As Brussels’ foreign aid bubble-within-the-bubble dissects the 2028-2034 Global Europe regulation, obtained by Euractiv, one section raising eyebrows is a plan to provide grants to European companies (without a competitive tender) to spur investments abroad that serve “the strategic interest of the Union”.

A “direct award” could be handed over, the draft regulation states, “to enable investments or finance feasibility studies in strategic areas such as critical raw materials or digital and other infrastructure, in particular as part of integrated packages, to enhance the Union's strategic autonomy”.

The Commission has not made any secret of its shift away from helping the world’s poorest countries to instead try and curry favour elsewhere and open markets for its own firms. But still, handing out cash to private companies (who presumably would be able to find a few million for their own feasibility studies) from the same pot which now contains the EU’s humanitarian assistance budget, is unlikely to go unopposed by foreign aid advocates.

As one EU member state official told us, “state aid disguised as development is a bit tricky”.

GERMANY
Germany’s parliament has launched a review of the country’s COVID-19 response. It received cross-party support – except the far-right AfD, which demanded a tougher inquiry. The topic gained traction after a government review accused then-Health Minister Jens Spahn, an ally of Chancellor Merz, of grave errors in the pandemic response.

FRANCE
A new permanent headquarters in Paris will serve as the base for the Western-led 'Coalition of the Willing' for Ukraine for one year, coordinating a future multinational 'reassurance force' ready to support Kyiv after a potential ceasefire. Read more.

ROME
Italy pledged Thursday to increase its defence cooperation with Ukraine and encourage private investment to support Kyiv's post-war reconstruction. Read more.

PORTUGAL
Portugal's government approved the reprivatisation of airline TAP on Thursday, with the prime minister announcing plans to sell an initial 49.9% stake.

CZECHIA
Russia has intensified covert operations in Czechia, but its efforts have resulted in only “minor security incidents,” according to an annual report from Czechia’s domestic intelligence agency (BIS). Read more.

POLAND
The European Commission wrongly deducted over €68 million from Poland’s EU funds for failing to halt operations at the Turów coal mine, according to an EU Court of Justice preliminary opinion on Thursday. Read more.

SWEDEN
Swedish Migration Minister Johan Forssell is facing mounting political pressure following revelations that his teenage son was involved with far-right extremist circles. Read more.

SLOVAKIA
The Slovak PM and the German chancellor have traded jabs over Slovakia's veto of the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia. "Only one member state is still needed to agree to this,” Merz said at a conference in Rome. “I therefore urge Slovakia and its prime minister to stop blocking the approval." Fico fired back on social media, saying he refuses to negotiate "under pressure from strong words".

Is Giorgia Meloni a consensus-smashing radical who wants to overturn the decades-old centrist coalition running Europe? Or is she just a European leader like all the others, becoming ever more moderate by the day? It depends where you look. Read more.

Italian Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida has backed a plan to make Italian bresaola using US beef and ship it back to America – a proposal that grabbed headlines but appears to breach EU trade rules. Read more.

A focus from the far right in the European Parliament on endometriosis has allowed the Europe of Sovereign Nations group to link infertility and "demographic imbalance". Read more.

DG CNECT chief Roberto Viola will stay on until September 2026 despite hitting retirement age this year, Anupriya Datta reports. The Italian turned 65, the cut-off for officials hired before 2013.

Irish Fine Gael lawmaker Seán Kelly has announced he will not seek his party’s nomination for the presidential election later this year.

Informal meeting of Environment Ministers in Aalborg

Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis visits Rome; meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

Commission President von der Leyen receives the director of the Green 10 environmental coalition

Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera on official visit to China

EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius and Deputy Prime Minister for Science and Technology and Minister for Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Federov, announce the BraveTech EU initiative to accelerate the technological transformation of European defence and enhance EU–Ukraine cooperation in defence industries and innovation in Rome

Contributors: Angelo Di Mambro, Anupriya Datta, Vince Chadwick, Laurent Geslin, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Nick Alipour, Aneta Zachová.

Editors: Vince Chadwick and Sofia Mandilara.